Election map redraw could hand LNP up to three seats, analysis suggests

Analysis of Queensland’s draft state electoral map overhaul suggests the LNP has emerged the winner, with up to three extra seats slated to fall into the government’s hands.

As the major parties again traded barbs about the work, the LNP claimed that both new seats proposed were in “Labor heartland”. However, Caboolture appears likely to be a marginal LNP seat.

Boundary changes to Labor’s sole Gold Coast seat of Gaven, held by shadow attorney-general and future leadership figure Meaghan Scanlon, have left analysts predicting it will become a marginal LNP seat.

Hill, centred around Innisfail in the state’s far north and held by Katter’s Australian Party, would also be abolished. A second new seat in the Ipswich region is notionally Labor.

“On the old boundaries, a 1.9 per cent two-party-preferred uniform swing would deprive the LNP of their majority. On the new boundaries, that swing would need to be 2.9 per cent,” election analyst Ben Raue wrote on The Tally Room blog.

“That is a significant improvement for the LNP.”

The analysis of proposed new boundaries by Raue and fellow election analyst William Bowe essentially reassigns voting data from the 2024 election within the draft boundaries.

It also comes as Labor renewed its criticism of the role of Deputy Premier Jarrod Bleijie’s department head, John Sosso, as one of three figures on the commission undertaking the work.

Under the redistribution proposal, the names of 19 seats would be changed and two electorates – Caboolture and Springfield – would be created.

The legally required redistribution is the first for the state since 2017, when parliament also expanded from 89 to 93 seats. The redrawn map will be used in the 2028 state election.

An extensive public consultation process has been under way since mid-2025, when submissions were sought by the commission before being published and comments invited.

Among these, the LNP’s submission urged the abolition of two seats: the north Queensland seat of Hill, and the Labor-held seat of Toohey in Brisbane’s south.

Both the LNP and the Greens, who urged an expansion of parliament, called for a new seat in the Logan-Ipswich corridor, in differing locations.

While Labor did not call for the abolition of any seats in its unusually vague submission, it agreed with both the LNP and Greens on the need for a new electorate around Caboolture.

The Labor Party are picking up two seats in their Labor heartland.

Public submissions on the proposal are open until April 9, and will be published after this date for further public comment.

On Raue’s analysis, the LNP would net two extra seats under the proposed redistribution, with both Labor and KAP losing one. Of seats with margins under 4 per cent, Raue said the LNP appeared to have “done better” in 12.

Labor’s standing was improved in the case of five, and Greens appear better off in two, he said.

In analysis for his The Poll Bludger blog, Bowe’s estimated two-party preferred result in Macalister suggests the redrawn seat – to be renamed Beenleigh – could also fall to the LNP, with a margin of 0.4 per cent. It is currently held by Labor’s Melissa McMahon.

Well, the LNP rigged this process, and as a result, we’ve got a rigged outcome which will lead to a rigged election.

While the LNP has defended Sosso’s selection for the commission, the Labor opposition has not been the only voice to have raised concerns.

Tony Fitzgerald, who led the landmark Fitzgerald inquiry in the late 1980s, warned last year of a return to the “bad old days” of “biased electoral boundaries” after Sosso’s appointment.

In a parliamentary committee hearing last month, senior Labor MP Shannon Fentiman asked Crime and Corruption Commission representatives if it was appropriate for the government to have been “informally” provided detail of the draft changes.

Citing multiple whistleblowers, Fentiman suggested this took the form of “a draft copy or information about the electoral boundaries from the independent Queensland Redistribution Commission”. The CCC said it could not respond.

Approached for comment at the time, a spokesperson for the Electoral Commission of Queensland – in which the redistribution body sits – said it had not provided a copy of the draft or related information to “any external party”.

The office of Premier David Crisafulli repeatedly refused to provide a response to this masthead until Wednesday, suggesting Fentiman first needed to substantiate her claims.

If false, the government could pursue Fentiman through the ethics committee for misleading parliament. It has given no indication it is doing so.

After a further request on Wednesday, a government spokesperson said only: “Has Labor’s Shannon Fentiman actually provided any proof of this to you whatsoever, or is she just misleading the media again as part of her campaign to take down Steven Miles?”

This masthead has not been able to independently verify Fentiman’s claims with primary sources.

Start the day with a summary of the day’s most important and interesting stories, analysis and insights. Sign up for our Morning Edition newsletter.