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Only political junkies and election strategists in NSW would usually care about poll results in the festival state. But South Australia will be a national litmus test when its voters go to the ballot box on March 21. Will One Nation, as published polling suggests, decimate the Liberals and seize seats?
And if it does, what will the stratospheric rise of Pauline Hanson’s party mean for NSW?
Friday marks one year until the election in NSW. Voters will go to the polls on March 13 next year, two weeks earlier than previous elections due to when Easter falls. The government, not wanting an election campaign interrupted by a long weekend, made the call to go sooner rather than later.
The contest will be between a first-term government and an opposition which has only just adjusted to not being in power. Housing will be the key issue for Labor and the Coalition, with both sides of politics battling to balance the need for more homes with competing pressures such as whether there is the necessary infrastructure to support growth.
But there is another factor emerging that could change the trajectory of the election. On the back of a cost-of-living crisis and global uncertainty, will One Nation become a force in NSW? It currently has no MPs after maverick former federal Labor leader Mark Latham quit the party, along with Rod Roberts and another Labor turncoat Tania Mihailuk. But One Nation is planning a comeback.
In February, Singleton mining mechanic Stuart Bonds, a close ally of Hanson and a two-time federal One Nation candidate, revealed that the party would be contesting every seat in NSW. “If you live in NSW, you’ll have a One Nation candidate to vote for in your electorate,” Bonds says. “We will be running in every seat and several candidates in the Legislative Council.”
NSW Premier Chris Minns is not underestimating the rise of the right-wing party. “My general view about other political parties and their prospects is that it always worries me, and it worries every political leader; it’s garbage to say that it doesn’t,” Minns says in an interview with the Herald to mark one year until the election.
Minns says there is an argument that “Pauline Hanson is analogous with nativist or populist right-wing movements around the world” including in the US, Argentina, Brazil, Poland and Nigel Farage’s Reform party in the United Kingdom.
“There’s also an argument that she’s actually been under-indexed in Australia for a long time, and that this sort of movement has been building, perhaps coinciding, with changes to the patterns of communication, like with social media,” Minns says.
“The thing about her, though, is, what are her solutions?”
Minns may be worried about the rise of One Nation, but the seats most at risk of an onslaught from Hanson’s party are those held by the Coalition. NSW Opposition Leader Kellie Sloane accepts that.
“I’m hearing the frustration of voters, and we should not be ignoring that,” Sloane says. “And a lot of those people are not racists, and they do believe in the truth that most Muslims are very good Muslims, it is a minority that are extremists.
“So I don’t diminish the people who are sending us a very clear message that they’re not happy with the major parties, that they don’t believe that we’re hearing their message.
“But when you break down some of the polling around the One Nation vote it’s that sense, predominantly, that it’s economic issues that are driving such dissatisfaction.” She says that is why the Liberals must argue that they are the party best placed to manage the economy.
New federal Liberal leader Angus Taylor has mooted preference deals with One Nation in a bid to woo back disaffected voters. Sloane will not be drawn on whether she would do the same.
“It’s an abstract question in NSW because who would I do the deal with? There is no One Nation party structure in NSW,” Sloane says.
When terror hit home
The new year began similarly for both leaders. Minns and Sloane, who have an obvious respect for each other, were forced to deal with the fallout of the worst terrorist attack in the country.
Sloane, who replaced Mark Speakman as leader in November, had only been in the job for seven weeks when the Bondi massacre devastated her heavily Jewish Vaucluse electorate on December 14. Sloane, who was at a nearby Hanukkah event, raced to Bondi Beach as the horror was unfolding.
“I’ve been reluctant to talk about it too much because I’m very mindful that what I experienced, what I witnessed, which you don’t want anyone to have to witness or experience in their life, was nothing compared to what so many other people endured,” Sloane says.
However, Sloane says her community wants her to speak about that fateful day because they want their stories recorded and remembered.
“Like so many other people did on that day, I switched, in essence, in the middle of all that trauma, from first responder one moment to local member the next to opposition leader, getting a briefing from the police minister and back to first responder again, literally holding people’s hands when they died,” Sloane says.
“And like everyone else who was there, it’s impacted me. It can’t not,” Sloane says, fighting back tears. “It catches you in moments you don’t expect, and I think it’s very normal to have those moments where you reflect on it, and still can’t believe it happened.”
Asked about his hardest moment navigating the Bondi tragedy, Minns does not have an obvious answer. “I don’t know, I haven’t really thought about it in an introspective way,” he says. The days were long and “immensely sad” but Minns says he had a job to do then, and still does.
“I don’t want to brush past it,” Minns says. “I think that there are fundamental things with the state and with our community and with the police force and the government and our legislative response that need to change, and they’re not all done.
“It was obviously a big, important moment, but from my perspective, it was a call to action.”
Budget battle lines
Treasurer Daniel Mookhey will hand down his fourth budget in June, and the final one before voters go to the polls. Minns is adamant it will not be a big-spending budget with pre-election sweeteners.
“We will be responsible,” Minns says. “Part of the reason for that is that we accept the argument that the states have a responsibility when it comes to not adding demand to an already hot economy, and therefore adding to the case for the Reserve Bank lifting rates, or the double whammy of inflation and interest rate rises.
“We are actually listening to that argument and applying it.”
For Sloane, her focus in the next year will be “economic reform” and ensuring NSW is the powerhouse of the country. “We have got to create the conditions for businesses to thrive in this state,” Sloane says. “There is a strong signal being sent by this Labor government that while business across this state is finding it tough, they’re expanding union powers and growing the public service, rather than being focused on growth and opportunity for small business.”
What lies ahead
In early March, the usually deft communicator stunned everyone when Minns let slip that he would not be in public life in 2032. In the demanding world of a 24/7 news cycle, coupled with the pressures of social media, it is unsurprising Minns’ tenure would not match that of his Labor predecessors, such as Bob Carr, who was in the top job for 10 years.
However, what was surprising was that Minns confirmed his timeline publicly. The premier says he was “embarrassed about the focus” on those comments.
“I don’t want people to think I don’t love the job and acknowledge the honour of it,” he says. “I take it really seriously, but sometimes I don’t take myself too seriously.”
Minns, who is at the gym at 5am most days and has given up drinking, says he has plenty of gas left in the tank. “People keep telling me I look tired,” he says. “They keep saying I look greyer and older, but I feel fine. I feel really great.”
And as for Minns’ next career move? Would he consider federal politics? “Not in a million years. Not interested. Never, never been interested. Don’t want to do it. I don’t like the other states.”
Meanwhile, Sloane, who only entered politics in 2023, is settling into the new role. Does she enjoy it? “I think so,” she laughs. “I’ve got a lot of support, and we are ready to fight.”
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