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Five years ago, Jonathan O’Brien left Brisbane for Melbourne. He has no intention of coming back, as long as the Queensland capital’s property prices remain high.
“Brisbane has – since COVID – lost its comparative advantage entirely with the rest of the country,” says O’Brien.
“Brisbane used to be a cheaper ... smaller, sort of mid-sized town for people to live in.”
The Queensland capital has lost its affordability crown to Melbourne, becoming the second most expensive place to buy a detached house behind Sydney. The median Brisbane house price hit $1,225,350 last month.
O’Brien leads pro-development group YIMBY (Yes In My Backyard) Melbourne, which on Sunday released its Australian Zoning Atlas, to illustrate how “highly restrictive” planning rules have contributed to the nation’s chronic housing shortage and eye-watering property prices.
Two-thirds of zoning across suburbs within 20 kilometres of Brisbane’s CBD allows detached houses only.
YIMBY argues that relaxing strict zoning rules to allow three-storey townhouse and apartment developments on all non-heritage residential land would make way for 2.1 million extra homes to be built in the city.
“If you want to solve the housing shortage, the first thing you have to do is make it legal to build housing,” O’Brien said.
“What we’ve seen, especially over the past five years with COVID and then an enormous increase in construction costs, is that cities that are very highly restrictive have not fared well amid the shocks.
“Whereas Melbourne, on the other hand, has been able to absorb the pains of the last five years much better than any other Australian city, and that comes down to ultimately a more permissive [planning] rule set.”
In Melbourne, 45 per cent of residential land within 20 kilometres of the CBD falls under “highly restricted” zoning.
By comparison, 85 per cent of residential land within a 20-kilometre radius of Brisbane’s CBD is subject to highly restrictive, low-density zoning with a two-storey height limit.
“I think Brisbane has completely squandered any advantage it had as a city over the past five years, and the zoning is a large explainer of that,” O’Brien said.
Brisbane also has unique “character zoning” designed to protect quintessential Queenslanders, which makes it illegal to remove any pre-1947 houses to make way for new builds.
“That ultimately makes it very hard to build [more affordable apartments and townhouses] in suburbs like Milton and Paddington that are right next to the CBD … Highly valuable places, places where a lot of young people would benefit from living,” said O’Brien, who grew up in a Queenslander in Brisbane’s leafy west.
Brisbane City Council has adopted a “tall over sprawl” mantra and is rezoning suburban hubs to allow high-rise apartments, some up to 30 storeys tall.
The council is increasing height and density limits in 14 “suburban renewal precincts”, including Alderly, Cannon Hill, Chermside, Mount Gravatt, Upper Mount Gravatt, Stones Corner, Wynnum and Sandgate.
Like YIMBY, the Grattan Institute has advocated for townhouses to be legal to build virtually everywhere, but has acknowledged that re-zoning does not always result in more development.
“A recent survey of zoned capacity in California showed that on average, only about 1 per cent of all zoned capacity is built as new housing each year,” former Grattan Institute economist Brendan Coates wrote late last year.
O’Brien said Brisbane’s up-zoning push was a case of too little, too late, and more radical, widespread reform was needed.
“I always thought I could go back to Brisbane because at least it’s cheaper. But for people who are younger and not established, Brisbane is going to make less and less sense,” he said.
“If you’re a young person, you’re not making a decision first and foremost on the weather.”
There are many who disagree with O’Brien, however, as Brisbane continues to dominate the interstate migration ladder (although the majority of new residents are moving to housing estates on the city’s outskirts).
While Sydney lost 33,000 residents last year, and Melbourne lost 8500, Brisbane gained 11,000 interstate migrants, according to data analysed by KPMG urban economist Terry Rawnsley.
Real Estate Institute of Queensland chief executive Antonia Mercorella said the migration figures illustrated a tremendous vote of confidence in Brisbane’s lifestyle, economy and prospects.
“Queensland’s growth story should be celebrated, but it also reinforces the need to tackle our housing shortage with urgency,” she said.
“If we want to keep attracting workers, families and investors, we need to make sure we’re building the homes, communities and infrastructure that support a growing population.”
Committee for Brisbane chief executive Jen Williams said there was no denying Brisbane was under pressure to provide housing for a rapidly increasing population, but the city’s lifestyle offerings should not be overlooked.
“Brisbane has incredible weather and a natural environment that are fundamental to our lifestyle. What will be important is maintaining this lifestyle as we continue to grow as a city,” she said.
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