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The nation’s domestic spy boss has warned the current terror threat level of probable underestimates the true danger Australians face, suggesting the warning system has not kept pace with modern national security threats.
ASIO Director-General Mike Burgess used his latest annual threat assessment to voice his fears a shadowy Iranian-linked group that has attacked Jewish sites in Europe could start terrorising Australians as he defended ASIO’s focus on counter-terrorism in the lead-up to the Bondi massacre in December.
Burgess also used the speech to outline new details about individuals overseas – including an Australian in a senior role with Iran’s feared revolutionary guard corps – whom authorities believe orchestrated Iran-backed antisemitic attacks in Sydney and Melbourne.
As the antisemitism royal commission probes the performance of national security agencies before the worst terror attack in Australia’s history at Bondi, Burgess’ speech sought to deflect criticism that his organisation had put too much focus on espionage and foreign interference in the years leading up to the mass shooting.
“Even when surging espionage and foreign interference demanded more attention, countering terrorism remained a priority,” he said.
“We increased [counter-terror] resourcing when we raised the threat level in 2024, and it continued to grow in the months before Bondi.”
The number of ASIO officers working on counter-terrorism in 2025 was almost double that in 2005, he said.
“We cannot stop every terrorist, just as we cannot catch each spy.”
The royal commission’s interim report found that while total intelligence funding rose between 2020 and 2025, the share dedicated to stopping terrorism dropped to its lowest level since 2001.
ASIO has successfully foiled 31 major terror plots over the past decade, including 14 since Bondi, Burgess said.
He detailed an Iran-aligned group that has orchestrated attacks across Europe this year, mostly involving arson and targeted at Jewish sites.
Although Burgess did not name the group, it appears he was referring to Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamia, roughly translated as “the Islamic movement of the companions of the righteous”.
The upstart group has claimed credit for attacking synagogues, a Jewish school and commercial centres in Europe this year.
“We assess there is a realistic possibility the group that’s been active in Europe will expand its networks to this part of the world, and could conduct or inspire acts of arson, vandalism or even assassinations on Australian soil,” he said.
“Iran continues to view Australia as a legitimate target for covertly directed acts of violence.”
While the nation’s terror threat level remains at probable – meaning a greater than 50 per cent chance of an onshore terror attack occurring or being planned within the next 12 months – Burgess stressed that “I do not believe the system was designed for a situation like the one we now face”.
“Probable does not tell the full story,” he said.
“The next level on the scale is expected, which applies when we have intelligence about a specific attack. We do not.
“But we do know the environment is degrading and acts of politically motivated violence are becoming more likely than probable suggests.”
While ASIO has been criticised for not focusing enough on Sunni Islamic extremism, Burgess said intelligence agencies faced a complex array of threats, including extreme Christians and far-left radicals.
Burgess detailed direct links ASIO has identified between Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and two individuals living overseas that the spy agency believes orchestrated attacks on Jewish buildings in Sydney and Melbourne.
This includes an Iran-based Australian citizen who organised the 2024 firebombing of the Lewis Continental Kitchen in Bondi. Burgess said the man is a senior agent of the IRGC Qods Force, an elite clandestine ring, who runs its global networks.
“We know more about him than he realises, including the name of his superior in Iran and the department he works for,” Burgess said. “‘Department 11,000’, a covert unit within the IRGC Qods Force, is responsible for co-ordinating operations in the West.”
Burgess also stated that a former Australian resident living in Iraq directed the 2024 attack on the Adass Israel Synagogue in Melbourne after being recruited by Iran through a web of Iraqi-based militia groups.
While the IRGC initially protected the individual because of his wealth and criminal connections, Burgess said that changed after ASIO named Iran’s involvement in the arson and the individual was thrown in prison.
Burgess said he could not name either of the individuals because of ongoing court cases.
He said foreign spies were aggressively targeting Australia because of the AUKUS nuclear-powered submarine pact, including supposedly friendly nations that have made it their top intelligence priority.
He detailed members of a foreign intelligence service who approached an Australian security clearance holder online, posing as consultants and offering money for inside information on AUKUS.
The clearance holder reported the contact and ASIO informed the foreign spy agency it had uncovered their scheme.
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