Andrew McDonald says Pat Cummins will ‘partake in the Ashes’. But in how many Tests?

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There is a fine line between being upfront with the Australian cricket public and breaking it to them gently that their captain, and the team’s most valuable asset, may not make it through this summer’s blockbuster Ashes series.

That was the tightrope head coach Andrew McDonald walked on Wednesday morning during his regular SEN Radio slot with Gerard Whateley.

Whateley probed McDonald about what is becoming the most talked-about body part in Australian sport: Pat Cummins’ troublesome back.

“The worry is the captain, Pat Cummins, and his physical state,” Whateley began. “How fretful should we be, Andrew?”

“I mean, we’re confident that he’s going to partake in the Ashes,” McDonald replied.

With that short sentence, 66 days out from the opening delivery, McDonald all but confirmed Australia’s captain won’t play in all five Tests against England.

Cummins, the heart and soul of the team for so many years, will find it difficult to back up for five gruelling matches across Perth, Brisbane, Adelaide, Melbourne and Sydney given the medical information at hand, McDonald said.

A “lumbar bone stress issue” surfaced after the West Indies tour, when Cummins bowled just 60 overs across three Tests – the fewest in a series of that length in his career.

McDonald admitted none of Australia’s experienced quicks were expected to play every Test against England.

“From the get-go, we never really planned for five Test matches for most of our fast bowlers,” McDonald said. “Over the last couple of years, we’ve been lucky with shortened games early in the summer to be able to deliver five Test matches [for each bowler].

“In our planning, we never really pitched that to our players.”

As the interview continued, you could almost hear Australian fans doing the sums. If Cummins misses one Test (or more), and one of the other quicks needs a rest, does that mean a fresh face will come in for a Test debut? That’s how it sounded.

The coach stressed more “information” will come to light as Cummins’ recovery is tracked – every weight lifted and ball bowled will be carefully logged. And any suggestion that Cummins would miss the entire Ashes series is hyperbolic, according to McDonald.

“To sensationalise that he’s not [playing] would be an overreaction,” McDonald said. “It’s not ideal. I’m not going to sit here and say that it’s ideal. He’s working through a program.”

Australian skipper Pat Cummins playing against the West Indies in June.

An Ashes series is always preceded by a certain amount of hype, but this year the noise from the Old Dart has reached fever pitch because England believe they can win.

Cummins’ injury cloud will raise the tourists’ hopes they can not only win a Test for the first time on Australian soil since January 2011, but the whole series.

“We’ve got time,” McDonald said. “If it happened any closer [to the Ashes], then you’d have to be making sort of key decisions around what it all looks like. We’re really hopeful he will take a key part in the Ashes.”

As the interview progressed, McDonald’s language shifted. From Cummins “partaking” in the Ashes, to playing a “key part”, and finally a “significant part”. The messaging was mixed, which spoke volumes.

It is too early to know for certain, but Cummins coming in for the third Test seems about the sweet spot at the moment.

“We look forward to our captain taking a significant part in the Ashes,” McDonald said.

The uncertainty over Cummins’ availability is sure to create a circus this summer. Every appearance at training or conversation with selectors will be parsed for clues. A Sheffield Shield hit-out for NSW looks increasingly unlikely.

Cummins is going to get awfully sick of being asked how his back is feeling.

One thing is clear, however. After last summer’s crushing defeat to India in Perth, victory in the opening Test is a non-negotiable for Australia.

“As we saw last year, you don’t want to be on the other side of it because that can create some internal and external pressures that can potentially challenge your environment,” McDonald said.

More pleasing for Australian fans was listening to McDonald rattle off the crop of fast bowlers in line to wear a baggy green.

Scott Boland is likely to feature more than ever in a home summer. Sean Abbott and Brendan Doggett, members of Australia’s World Test Championship final squad, were also name-dropped.

“Then you’ve got [Fergus] O’Neill, you’ve got [Nathan] McAndrew and then you start to talk about the younger quicks ... [Callum] Vidler, [Tom] Straker, [Charlie] Anderson, [Mahli] Beardman, [Tom] Whitney ... and then we’ve got Jhye Richardson coming back from injury.”

All under control. At least for now.