Allen up against it & more drama in Chicago - NFL play-off predictions

We move a step closer to Super Bowl 60 with four Divisional Round games coming up - and if this week brings anything like the drama from Wildcard Weekend, it will be quite the treat.

The battle for the Lombardi Trophy is as wide open as it has been in years, and nobody would be surprised by any of the remaining eight sides going on to taste glory in Santa Clara next month.

But who will emerge victorious this weekend as the number one seeds enter the fray?

We have our panel of experts to try to pick the winners, including Radio 5 Live's Rob Staton, BBC Sport journalist Paul Higham and our special guest, former NFL coach Phil McGeoghan.

You can also pick your winners below.

All times GMT and AFC/NFC seedings in brackets

Saturday, 17 January

Sunday, 18 January

Rob Staton: Bills

I've just got a sense that Josh Allen might will his team to victory again. This is his big opportunity this season so can he take advantage?

Phil McGeoghan: Broncos

My wife's from Buffalo and we met when I was coaching for the Buffalo Bills, but I've spent most of my career in Bronco land. So I'm not going to say it out loud. She gets a little fired up, but that's who we're going for in this house (Broncos), but that's only in the basement. So I'm subterranean Phil. I can't wait to see what happens, but I'm going to be doing it well below ground, cheering as quietly as possible for the Denver Broncos.

Mike White: Broncos

The way this season has unfolded it seems like the door has been left wide open on the AFC side for Josh Allen and the Bills to finally end their wait not only for a return to the big game but also for their first Lombardi success.

However, I'm finding it hard to look past the Broncos who had the advantage of the bye week, have a dominant defence, know about winning games in comeback mode and aren't banged up the way Buffalo are - especially at the wide receiver position. I'll take Denver to progress but in a close one by three points or less.

Paul Higham: Broncos

Denver won the last Super Bowl at Levi's Stadium (the venue for Super Bowl 60 next month) a decade ago, which was also their last play-off win - while it's the only stadium in the league Josh Allen has yet to play in, so there's a hint of destiny about both sides.

Allen got his first road play-off win last week, Buffalo's first since 1993, but he got beat up in Jacksonville, has a depleted bunch of receivers, and if James Cook again struggles against Denver's rush defence even Superman himself may just have too much to overcome by himself.

And ironically it could be the legs of Bo Nix that do more damage, as Buffalo gave up the most yards per carry to opposing quarterbacks this season. It'll be close but Denver went 11-2 in one-score games this season.

Rob Staton: Seahawks

You've got to give Kyle Shanahan and his team a tonne of credit for what they've achieved amid an injury crisis, but realistically this might be a game too far.

Mike White: Seahawks

This feels like a game too far for the Niners against a highly talented Seattle who boast a stingy defence whilst San Fran are battered, bruised and without big-name, big-game players such as George Kittle, Nick Bosa and Fred Warner.

Sam Darnold has an injury designation going into this but is expected to play. Once upon a time, that would've been a boost for any of Seattle's opponents, but the post-New York Jets Darnold is a different proposition and the one-time former 49ers backup will lead them to the NFC title game. Seahawks by 10.

Phil McGeoghan: Niners

Very interesting game. The 49ers are decimated by injuries, but the best predictor of future events is past events. They've found a way to overcome injuries for quite some time so that means culture has now taken over and it's a winning culture. You don't forget how to win.

Paul Higham: Seahawks

Sam Darnold led the league in turnovers and has an injury, so Seattle will hope to win this with their improving ground game, which averaged 140 yards a game over the last eight weeks, against San Francisco's ailing rush defence heading in the opposite direction.

The pass rush is another decider - the Niners ranked last in sacks and second-last in quarterback pressures as their pass rush unit is basically all out injured. Seattle, meanwhile, get consistent pressure and dominated two weeks ago having upped their blitz rate.

Throw in the famous Seahawks 12s and a flight back across the country for the 49ers from Philadelphia on a short week and there's just too much in the home side's favour.

Rob Staton: Patriots

The Texans' defence is legit and can win them any game, but Drake Maye's mobility and playmaking is the perfect counter. Pats get it done.

Phil McGeoghan: Patriots

The Texans have changed games, ruined games, so you must have a protection plan for the Houston Texans. They will ruin your weekend. In my mind, though, just looking at the way Drake Maye is playing at this particular point and the way that they're just kind of moving, I think it's the Patriots, right?

I am from Boston. So I think if I go home and I don't say the Patriots, I might be in the 'harbour' or something. So I will say I think it's going to be the Patriots.

Mike White: Patriots

This is likely to be a tight affair with very few points in the game. The Patriots offence matching up against that forceful Texans defence feels like the match-up to keep an eye on. And with CJ Stroud set to be without his best receiving option in Nico Collins (concussion), Houston's chances just reduced considerably.

Mike Vrabel's already a strong coach of the season candidate, and returning the Patriots back to their once-familiar surroundings of the AFC Championship game will only enhance those credentials. Pats take it by six.

Paul Higham: Texans

Houston's first road play-off win last week was a statement win for this terrifying defence, but the Pats have won a league-leading eight straight Divisional games.

Drake Maye's mobility can slow Houston down but I just can't see him doing enough to keep them off his case enough throughout the game. As long as CJ Stroud cleans things up and doesn't have another five fumbles, I'm backing the Texans to make their first AFC Championship game.

Rob Staton: Bears

There's just a bit of magic about the Bears at the moment and the Rams have not played their best football in weeks. Soldier Field will be rocking and I think Chicago make it to the NFC Championship.

Mike White: Rams

The Chicago Bears' renaissance has been nothing short of remarkable and Ben Johnson deserves a tonne of credit for it. As does Caleb Williams who's defied a lot of the (justified) rookie season critics in his second year.

That said, this is a Rams team that many have been crowning as the champions-elect for weeks and not without good reason. Whether it's offensive guru Sean McVay, the experience and MVP qualities of Matthew Stafford or the magic hands of Puka Nacua, they have all the ingredients for another Super Bowl run. The predicted Arctic conditions might be somewhat of a leveller but still taking the Rams by four.

Phil McGeoghan: Rams

I am such a fan of Sean McVay. His mind, the way it works, his gameplans, also his humour. His willingness to be open. All these things matter in football.

Because of his personality and how he is with the players, he admires his guys. He doesn't pretend Davante Adams isn't one of the best to ever do it. He doesn't pretend he's not in awe of Matthew Stafford when he makes one of his no-look throws. That stuff really builds culture.

That's why they've won Super Bowls, that's why people don't leave there unless they get promoted and get better jobs, because McVay is such a good man and he's a brilliant, brilliant offensive mind so I'm picking Sean McVay and the Rams for those reasons.

Paul Higham: Bears

Only four quarterbacks have thrown for 140-plus yards and two touchdowns in the fourth quarter of a play-off win in the past 20 years - and two of them collide at Soldier Field.

So this genuinely could be decided by whether Matthew Stafford or Caleb Williams, who have combined for 29 fourth-quarter touchdowns this season, has the ball last after both earned thrilling late wins last week.

Williams has been doing it all season though, and watching last week even when they were well behind it seemed inevitable the Bears would come roaring back to win. It just gives you a funny feeling that they've got something special rolling in the Windy City.