Why our US alliance is under threat in 2026 – from Trump

2 hours ago 1

Opinion

December 30, 2025 — 5.00am

As the year draws to a close, this country is in anguished mourning, distress, fear and uncertainty about the government’s ability to act on antisemitism and keep Australia safe. Australia’s social fabric is in the balance.

But another huge issue is in the balance. US President Donald Trump is exercising his power in ways that pose an existential threat to the alliance of the past 75 years. It is time to understand this and face up to it.

US President Donald Trump following his meeting with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago club on Sunday.

In looking back on 2025, the easy conclusion to reach is that Australia’s relationship with the United States under Trump has gone well. Catastrophes averted. Australia came through.

A lot of credit can be taken by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and his government. The PM was lambasted for months by the opposition and the media because no face-to-face meeting with Trump had occurred. Trump gazumped that in the White House driveway. “We love Australia,” he said. No golden gifts or gongs needed to seal this mateship.

For months, the Pentagon’s review of the AUKUS project was reported to be in mortal danger. Not so. “Full steam ahead,” Trump declared.

AUSMIN was as solid as ever. Their joint statement, building on the leaders’ summit, pledged to “advance the safety, security, and prosperity of our two countries and the broader Indo-Pacific region”.

So the year-end assessment from all this work is that the relationship is on track, and that it is business as usual.

But it’s not. Trump has changed the world. The tectonic plates have shifted. We have not even begun to discuss what this means. All we are doing now is day-to-day management – tariffs, AUKUS, AUSMIN – as if nothing transformational is occurring.

Trump is intent – with his obsessions of anti-immigrant nativism, anti-trade protectionism and utter dominance via America First nationalism – on destroying the global architecture, from the United Nations to the World Health Organisation to the Paris Agreement on climate and many others. Australia is tied to all of them.

Trump is attacking on multiple fronts.

Trump and Europe: His contempt and hostility towards Europe are vicious. In discussing Europe’s leaders with Politico, Trump said: “I think they’re weak. But I also think that they want to be so politically correct.”

His National Security Strategy paper is a shocker. “Europe’s economic decline is eclipsed by the real and more stark prospect of civilisational erasure … As such, it is far from obvious whether certain European countries will have economies and militaries strong enough to remain reliable allies.”

After meeting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at his Mar-a-Lago resort on Sunday (Monday morning, AEDT), Trump claimed they were “getting a lot closer, maybe very close” to a peace deal. While Europe’s leaders welcomed this, they voiced urgent concern afterwards that security guarantees for Ukraine were not resolved and that they remained fearful that any deal with Russia’s Vladimir Putin was still weeks away at best.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has warned: “We are Russia’s next target. And we are already in harm’s way. Russia has brought war back to Europe, and we must be prepared for the scale of war our grandparents and great grandparents endured.” Pope Leo, seeing danger here, has called on Trump not to “break apart” the transatlantic alliance.

Trump is intent on annexing Greenland, which is part of Denmark, a US ally and a member of NATO. “We need it for national security. We have to have it.” Will Trump follow Putin and seize European territory?

Trump and the Americas: Trump is asserting bullying power over the Western hemisphere. Without any authorisation by the US Congress, Trump has directed the military to kill drug traffickers and seize and blockade oil tankers. In moving to overthrow Venezuela’s dictator, Nicolas (“Please cry for me Venezuela”) Maduro, Trump has revived the Monroe Doctrine, which ensures US primacy over the Americas. Trump also warned Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro: “He better wise up or he’ll be next.” And: “He’s got to watch his ass.”

Trump and the media: Without a free press, America would no longer be a democracy. CNN and Netflix are in play as media giants contest for assets. “I’ll be involved in that decision” on who gets Netflix, Trump said. Trump, who hates CNN, said: “The people that are running that company right now and running CNN, which is a very dishonest group of people, I don’t think that should be allowed to continue.”

Trump continues to attack The New York Times on his Truth Social platform: “Their Radical Left, Unhinged Behavior, writing FAKE Articles and Opinions ... must be dealt with and stopped.”

Australia is in alliance with the US because we are both democracies. How can the alliance endure if Trump exerts state control over America’s media?

Trump and Australians: After injuring Australia with his tariffs, Trump now wants to insult Australians wanting to visit the US. To get a US visa, Australians will have to supply up to five years of their online profiles and metadata. Is this how you treat citizens of your trusted ally – as a national security threat?

Australia’s now-shredded free-trade relationship with the US, the decades of meetings under AUSMIN and the commitment to AUKUS were all born in a world that does not exist any more. This is why “business as usual” between Australia and America does not cut it any more.

As 2026 dawns, it is time Australia acknowledges this new reality – just as it is facing up to the reality of antisemitism.

The main game is not the transactional issues, but the existential ones. Given what the US has become under Trump, and what Trump is inflicting on the world, what kind of relationship with the US do Australians want and what kind of alliance does the country need? In 2026, we need to start finding the answers.

Bruce Wolpe is a senior fellow at the University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre. He has served on the Democratic staff in the US Congress and as chief of staff to former prime minister Julia Gillard.