Who will win Champions League? BBC Sport experts make predictions

The Champions League is back, but who will get their hands on the famous old trophy this season?

Holders Paris St-Germain are one of 36 teams who begin the league phase this week, including six English sides - a record number for any country in the competition.

Starting on Tuesday, there are a total of 189 games to be played, including the final at Budapest's Puskas Arena next May.

We have asked some of BBC Sport's expert pundits, commentators and journalists who they think will lift the trophy in Hungary, as well as who will go furthest out of Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, Newcastle United and Tottenham Hotspur.

They have also picked their surprise package, and the player they are most looking forward to watching.

And you can vote for who you think will be the winners below.

Don't forget the BBC will again show highlights of the Champions League this season.

From 22:00 BST on the Wednesday of Champions League weeks, there will be match-by-match highlights available on BBC iPlayer and the BBC Sport website and app, plus a special Champions League Match of the Day on BBC One at 22:40.

This week there will also be be a highlights show on Thursday on BBC Two at 23:00.

BBC's chief football writer Phil McNulty: My pick to win it are Liverpool, purely on the basis of the huge strengthening they have carried out this summer. Florian Wirtz and Alexander Isak are two high-class players who are Champions League-ready.

The vagaries of the new league system last season saw Liverpool meet eventual winners PSG in the last 16, where they lost on penalties at Anfield.

If Liverpool reach the knockout phase, which they surely will, then the Anfield factor grows with every game.

PSG will be the big danger once again, a superb side who deserve the status as the best team in Europe, while Real Madrid come into every Champions League conversation as potential winners.

BBC's senior football correspondent Sami Mokbel: I'm going for Liverpool. Four wins from four in the Premier League and they haven't even nearly hit top gear yet. Oh, and Isak is waiting in the wings. Arne Slot's side are the team to beat.

Former Germany midfielder Thomas Hitzlsperger: Real are usually the club with the strongest mentality in this competition, but PSG have to be one of the favourites and Liverpool are too, given that they had such a good Premier League season then invested so much in their squad.

Those two teams come immediately to mind when I think about who will play in the final, and if I have to pick one to win it then I will go with Liverpool. Their squad depth is excellent, the quality was already there and now they have got Isak up front as well.

BBC Radio 5 Live football correspondent John Murray: When a team wins Europe's richest league at a comparative canter then spends the best part of half a billion pounds on new players, while at the same time securing the services of two of the club's greatest servants, it's difficult to tip anyone other than Liverpool.

Last season they lost out only narrowly to the eventual winners in a penalty shootout. It would be a tremendous prospect if this season Liverpool and PSG were to make it all the way to the final in Budapest.

Match of the Day commentator Steve Wilson: Tipping Real Madrid to win the Champions League is hardly the work of a soothsayer, but you are not likely to be far wrong. I thought Xabi Alonso did some interesting things with his squad in the Club World Cup - and getting Arda Guler more involved can only be a good thing.

His progress was held back by the affection everyone at the Bernabeu had for Luka Modric, now he has licence to really spread his wings.

The Observer football correspondent Rory Smith: It's been a frankly unacceptable one season since Real Madrid won the trophy the club sees as its birthright, and Xabi Alonso's main task as manager is to put that right. Real are never the most coherent team in Europe, but they have more individual talent than anyone, and often that is what matters.

Former England captain Steph Houghton: I am backing PSG to win it again. They are a young squad that has experienced winning already, plus they are athletic and forward thinking.

Former Scotland winger Pat Nevin: For a change, I went with my head over my heart. I love PSG and the way they play, and the way they have changed the way football is being played now with their attacking attitude. I also love that they love their wingers!

Spanish football expert Guillem Balague: I feel PSG have started a new era of success that has to do with using cleverly the predominant model of our times -positional football - mixed with quality, clear leadership and top players in each position.

Barcelona will be close, but I'm not sure they will sort out their defensive deficiencies.

BBC Champions League analyst Stephen Warnock: I think Barcelona will win it - and I am going with Lamine Yamal to be the tournament's star player.

Former Arsenal defender Matt Upson: I have gone for Barcelona, who are a young team that have grown from the experience of their cracking run to the semi-finals last season.

They were very unlucky not to make the final, and played brilliantly against Inter Milan - they just got exposed by a really rigid Inter team that had a way of playing and did what it said on the tin. But Barca will have learned from that.

The club appears a little bit unstable off the pitch at the moment but on it they have a nice balance of special young talent and know-how - with the likes of Robert Lewandowski to come on and impact games.

Italian football expert Nicky Bandini: I'll go with Liverpool. Predicting these things at the start is always a bit of guesswork - winning the Champions League comes down to fitness and form in key moments. PSG only took four points from their first five group games last season, then became a juggernaut by the spring.

But Liverpool were good enough to have won it last season - PSG needed a shootout to beat them after all - and spent almost half a billion pounds strengthening again. Hugo Ekitike, Wirtz, Isak - these are all players who can decide games when it matters.

They also weren't involved in the Club World Cup over the summer. We're already seeing fatigue and injury catch up to some who were, so I think that may be a factor this season.

Former Arsenal forward Theo Walcott: I am not just saying this because I am Arsenal, but I do feel that if they had someone like Viktor Gyokeres in the PSG semi-final they lost last season, then they would have won it.

When you create danger and put a ball into certain areas, Gyokeres is going to be there. He is that kind of old-school centre-forward that is going to make a difference for them in a lot of games this season. Arsenal are not going to draw as many games in the Premier League, and he is so equipped for the Champions League knockout ties as well.

Add that to the personnel that Arsenal already have, and how strong they are defensively, and that's why I am backing them to win it.

BBC Champions League analyst Nedum Onuoha: It's tough to bet against Real Madrid. Last year was one of the worst displays we have seen from them in this competition and they still made it to the knockout stage.

Alonso has come in with a new structure, and their new signings will make a difference for them.

AI and Opta's 'Supercomputer': We also asked AI's opinion on who will win the Champions League, and included the calculations that Opta's 'Supercomputer' came up with too.

The AI prediction was generated using Microsoft Copilot Chat - we simply asked the tool to 'predict the Champions League winners for the 2025-26 season' and it went for Liverpool.

Opta's 'Supercomputer' is actually a complex algorithm that uses a model based on betting market odds and the sports analytics company's own 'Power Rankings', which are calculated using past results.

It has simulated the 2025-26 competition 10,000 times and makes Liverpool favourites, with a 20.4% chance of winning, followed by Arsenal (16%), PSG (12.1%) and Manchester City and Barcelona (both 8.4%).

Disagree with our expert humans or think you know more than any machine? You can make your own prediction and choose from all 36 teams at the bottom of this page.

Phil McNulty: See my first answer, although I do think Arsenal and Manchester City have the capability to go deep into the competition as well as Liverpool.

The Gunners reached the semi-final last season and have made serious moves this summer, so they will have high hopes.

Nicky Bandini: I've picked them to win it, so it has to be Liverpool! But many of the things I said about them could also be argued for Arsenal - a huge investment in an already top-class squad that wasn't so far off last time around.

Really, all the English clubs ought to be capable of a deep run, given their resources. Premier League clubs spent more on transfers this summer than those from La Liga, Serie A, Ligue 1 and the Bundesliga combined.

Rory Smith: I'll go for Manchester City on the grounds that I think Arsenal will, come April, get distracted by their (eventually successful) pursuit of the Premier League title.

I'd expect all six English teams will make the knockout rounds - and two or three to make the semi-finals - but Pep Guardiola will push particularly hard: Europe may well be his best chance of a major trophy.

Theo Walcott: I think all six English teams will do well, not just Arsenal. I only maybe look at Newcastle and think they may not have the strength in depth for this competition, but they should still make the knockout stages.

Nedum Onuoha: Having six of them in there, who are capable of beating anyone, is going to be interesting. In terms of who will go furthest, I feel like Liverpool, City and Arsenal's chances are pretty similar. So, apologies to my City folk but I went back to last season and which team went the furthest.

That was Arsenal - and that semi-final defeat to PSG they felt so disappointed about. With the players they have brought in this summer, they are capable of going one step further and reaching the final this time.

Sami Mokbel: Liverpool for all the reasons I've already mentioned. But, away from the Merseysiders, Arsenal look well-equipped to go deep into the competition. Their squad is among the strongest in European football.

Steve Wilson: I like the look of Chelsea, but obviously Liverpool will strongly fancy their chances.

Stephen Warnock: Chelsea are my surprise package, but Liverpool will go the furthest of the Premier League sides.

Steph Houghton: I see Liverpool as having the squad depth to be able to compete in all competitions. Their signings have added real quality to an already strong squad.

Matt Upson: For similar reasons to why I think Barca will win it, I think Arsenal will do the best of the English teams. The core of their team is still together, they have strengthened their squad and they are also another big European campaign further along. They can use a run like the one they had last season in order to be even more successful.

Pat Nevin: I am certain Arsenal have got that depth you need to go far in this competition.

Chelsea have got a good chance of improving again but Arsenal, with their squad and especially when they get everyone back fit, will absolutely be able to manage.

Guillem Balague: I think Chelsea are creating something special. Remember when their fans were moaning about the team?

The hardest thing is to see the bigger picture when you are a fan, but Chelsea have got youth, direction, a fantastic manager, ambition and order - in the same positional football PSG are so good at. Love their journey to the top.

Thomas Hitzlsperger: I've got two teams I'd like to mention here.

The first is Athletic Bilbao, who are a team I've been watching a lot and a unique club that I really admire. They are back in the Champions League for the first time since 2015 and their manager Ernesto Valverde has done a phenomenal job. They are a solid side, who have made a very good start to the new season.

The other team, Bodo/Glimt, have been one of my favourites for years and they have now finally qualified for the Champions League. People probably don't appreciate enough what they have achieved, even though they saw them reach the Europa League semi-finals when they played Tottenham last season. It's one of the best stories in modern football.

Juventus and Manchester City both have to go to Norway to play them, in November and January, and they will definitely not be looking forward to those games.

Steve Wilson: I'm not sure a club with their pedigree can be labelled a 'surprise package' exactly, but I have a real soft spot for Juventus, so I want them to do really well.

Nicky Bandini: Maybe Galatasaray. They have put together an astonishingly talented squad these last couple of years. I continue to think Victor Osimhen is one of the best number nines on the planet, so upgrading his loan into a permanent move was a coup, then on top of that they added Leroy Sane this summer, as well as Ilkay Gundogan and Wilfried Singo, who has had a solid couple of seasons at Monaco.

You could even throw Mauro Icardi into the mix as the cliched 'like a new signing' if he ever gets back to his best after the cruciate ligament injury he suffered last season. There's a lot for manager Okan Buruk to work with.

John Murray: How about the Italian champions Napoli as the surprise package? Always difficult to beat in Naples, now with the added nous of Kevin de Bruyne to add to the wily ways of coach Antonio Conte.

Steph Houghton: De Bruyne brings class, experience and something special to Napoli. Not many other players have what he has. He has a chance to win it with his new team.

Theo Walcott: Bayern Munich will do well but I know I can't class them as a surprise package because they are expecting to win it. I'm going for Napoli, because of what De Bruyne brings to the table.

Phil McNulty: The usual suspects will be involved, but any side coached by Conte will be well organised and a formidable opponent, so I will go with Napoli.

Sami Mokbel: Under Conte, Napoli have thrived. They won the Serie A title in his first season in charge and have three from three this season. And with De Bruyne in tow...

Rory Smith: There are no surprises in European football any more - the big clubs have spent the better part of 30 years killing them off. I think Qarabag will be better than many expect, based on their Europa League form last year, and Galatasaray and Athletic Bilbao might offer a bit of variety in the last 16.

But in terms of actually progressing into the latter stages, it has to be Napoli, given the depth of squad Conte has built. Yep, that's right: this year's dark horses are... the champions of Italy.

Pat Nevin: They are a pot three team and they have never been to the Champions League semi-final, and I think they can get there... so that makes Napoli a surprise package even 'though I admit it's a bit of a cheat.

Matt Upson: I suppose Napoli are a surprise on this stage - while they are flying in Serie A, if they did well in the Champions League it would probably come as more of shock than if Inter or Juve did, even though Napoli are probably the better team.

Nedum Onuoha: This is a bit of a paradox in some ways because they are in pot one, but I think Chelsea are very capable of beating absolutely anyone.

They are Club World Cup champions - I know some people want to disregard that title but most people thought that PSG side were unbeatable, so I'll give Chelsea some credit there.

Guillem Balague: Watch out for Villarreal. They are solid, have signed players that will have to show their worth, but they have spent more than ever.

Marcelino Garcia Toral is one of the top managers in Europe - have a look at his career - and offers physicality, order and quality upfront - the type of qualities that can take them far.

Rory Smith: The fact the younger Williams brother, Nico, is still at Athletic Bilbao is down, more than anything, to Barcelona's ongoing financial malaise, but it is the sort of thing that should be celebrated.

He signed a 10-year deal this summer, and he will want to prove he can cut it on the biggest club stage. I'd mention Edon Zhegrova at Juventus, too, another edge-of-your-seat winger, but having two is cheating.

Guillem Balague: Desire Doue (PSG), Lamine Yamal (Barcelona), Joao Pedro (Chelsea), Tajon Buchanan (Villarreal), Arda Guler and Kylian Mbappe (both Real Madrid)... do I have to chose just the one?

This is a competition full of interest and quality. The toughest one to win.

Pat Nevin: Estevao Willian has got every chance of being one of the best in the business.

Nedum Onuoha: I wanted to go for Estevao but Pat Nevin took him first... so I have gone more defensive minded, and I've picked Dean Huijsen.

If Real Madrid are going to win the Champions League this year, it's going to come down to that big defender doing well for them, because a Xabi Alonso team is built on that strong defensive foundation, and I think Huijsen is going to be the star.

Theo Walcott: I am really looking forward to seeing Arsenal's Eberechi Eze in the Champions League.

It's very different to Premier League football and there might be games where he gets a bit more time on the ball. When you give that time to a player like him, who is so gifted, it is exciting to think what he could do.

If I had to pick a player from outside the Premier League then it would have to be Yamal, because I don't see a lot of him. With Eze, I know what he can do and I want him to show everyone on this kind of stage.

Phil McNulty: It's not a shock choice but I can't wait to see Yamal play for Barcelona, hopefully starting against Newcastle on Thursday, although the 18-year-old is struggling with a back injury picked up on international duty with Spain.

PSG's Doue is another brilliant young talent currently struggling with an injury, but he is another who will light up the tournament when fit, as he did so wonderfully last season.

Matt Upson: Yamal is the player I want to see. He is a ridiculous talent and I love watching him play.

John Murray: The player I'm looking forward to watching is Yamal as I am yet to commentate on him in a Barcelona shirt.

While disappointingly it looks like he might not be fit for Thursday at St James' Park, I suspect there will be other opportunities as this Champions League progresses.

Sami Mokbel: At 18, Yamal is still a kid - but already one of the premier attacking talents in European football. Destined to be one of, if not the, best footballers in the world.

Steph Houghton: Yamal is a global superstar. I'm excited to see how he performs against teams that are more than likely going to double up against him.

Nicky Bandini: We're all itching to see more of Yamal, aren't we? The two legs of Barcelona's semi-final against Inter last season will stay with me for a very long time. Maybe it's unfair to ask an 18-year-old what he can do for an encore, but you can't help but be excited at the prospect.

There are plenty of others I'm excited to watch too though! Of course we're all curious about Max Dowman after he made his debut for Arsenal at 15, and it'll be fun to see Scott McTominay in the Champions League with Napoli after he fired them to a domestic title last season and was named Serie A's Most Valuable Player.

I wonder if this might be a breakout year for Kenan Yildiz too, still only 20 and with a full season of starting for Juventus now under his belt.

Steve Wilson: Nick Woltemade was left out of Stuttgart's Champions League squad last season, so will presumably make his debut in the competition when Newcastle play Barca on matchday one. Memories of Tino Asprilla, anyone?

Thomas Hitzlsperger: It's probably not the most obvious choice, but I am going for Woltemade. There has been so much talk about him for a while - maybe not in England until Newcastle signed him for £69m, but definitely in Germany.

Bayern Munich wanted to sign him in the summer but Stuttgart would not sell him for the money they were offering. Bayern president Uli Hoeness says Woltemade is not worth what Newcastle paid for him, but the big price tag is not his fault.

Woltemade has just helped Stuttgart win the German Cup and he has got something about him. He seems a very down-to-earth guy who you want to do well and I hope his ability will shine through in the Premier League as well as the Champions League.