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This premiership shapes as one that needs to be won through scoring, which leaves a question mark over the Magpies who remain heavily reliant on unsigned Jamie Elliott, a player somehow not named All-Australian this season.
Elliott kicked four of the Magpies 11 goals in their qualifying final win over Adelaide, with his old mate Steele Sidebottom chipping in with three.
Elliott has kicked 56 of Collingwood’s 297 goals for the season. He is one of just four Magpies to have kicked 20 goals or more in 2025. By contrast each of the other three preliminary finalists have six players who have kicked more than 20 goals this season.
Collingwood had six goalkickers in their only final, whereas Geelong had 13. Hawthorn averaged 8.5 goalkickers in their two games and the Lions eight.
It makes Collingwood the Djokovic of the preliminary finalists, albeit the team which has kicked the highest average score when matches between the four finalists in 2025 are measured in isolation.
When that measure is taken, Collingwood averages 82 points a game, the Brisbane Lions 80.4, Geelong 80 and Hawthorn 76.8.
The other three teams have scored at least 100 points in each of their finals wins.
Geelong, the Brisbane Lions and Hawthorn have aerial and ground forces to attack, a handy asset when you consider 11 of the past 18 premiers kicked more than 100 points on grand final day.
Collingwood can defend, though. Craig McRae emphasised after their qualifying final win, that matchplay time has arrived, and that shapes as a handy attribute to have, given the wet and cold conditions forecast for Saturday.
McRae knows that having your nose in front at this time of the year matters way more than having the most attractive nose.
In an otherwise ugly season, these preliminary finals are a beautiful set of match-ups.
For the first time since COVID-19, we have two preliminary finals featuring the best four teams at the MCG. Let’s revel in that. The time to pick winners can wait until week’s end.
Bobby Hill or not?
If he is fit enough and Collingwood beats the Brisbane Lions, Bobby Hill should play in the grand final but not before. It’s a big call, but both his talent and his contribution to the Magpies’ flag in 2023, when he won the Norm Smith Medal, simplifies the decision.
Of course, Collingwood’s leadership team needs to be on board because the foot soldier who misses out would feel aggrieved. But Hill’s contribution can’t be measured on the past three months alone.
Riding a wave of momentum, Collingwood could be about to get even stronger later in the finals series.Credit: AFL Photos
The coaching and medical staff and his teammates will know better than anyone whether he is fit and ready to perform for a full game (possible even if he starts as a sub) after such a disrupted end to the season.
The reasons for their absence were very different, but the timeline is similar to when Hawthorn unleashed Cyril Rioli in the 2014 grand final after he had been sidelined with a hamstring injury from late June. Hill has played less than half an AFL game since June 21.
The Pies should bring defender Jeremy Howe in as a sub against the Lions and then, if the Magpies win, consider Hill as the sub for the grand final.
Centre square combat: Newcombe v Atkins
Tom Atkins will be the most important player in Geelong’s starting midfield on Friday night.
He is likely to be given the job of quelling Hawthorn’s finals fire-starter Jai Newcombe, who has been brilliant in each of his first four finals.
Atkins has the tenacity, build and defensive mind to keep Newcombe honest at centre square stoppages, so any of his exits will be rushed.
The tenacious pair play football without fanfare but are both outstandingCredit: AFL Photos via Getty Images
This will be critical because if Newcombe is allowed to repeat the explosive start he made against the Crows on Friday night, it will ensure the fight against the Hawks goes the distance.
The 24-year-old is, to steal from Bruce McAvaney, special. He has earned 24, 18 and 11 Brownlow Medal votes in his past three seasons. He will charge home in that award next Monday night, too.
Oisin Mullin could be an option at stoppages around the ground and in general play as Newcombe has the pace and power to find space quickly unless his opponent focuses on his whereabouts. The Cats will need someone’s eyes on him constantly.
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Neither teams have a midfield that runs deep, but the outside run of Max Holmes and Bailey Smith will give the Cats an edge if they can neutralise Newcombe.
The other riskier option for Cats’ coach Chris Scott is to fight fire with fire by sending Patrick Dangerfield into the middle, where none of the Hawks will be able to compete with him for strength and power.
Oh, to be a coach.
Finding a Merrett solution requires calm heads
There was a different path for Zach Merrett to take, although it would have taken patience.
He could have voluntarily stood down as captain for 2026 and plotted a path out by the end of next season with one year remaining on his contract as a professional 30-year-old with at least five seasons ahead of him.
Zach Merrett has already met with Sam Mitchell.Credit: AFL Photos
His reputation, one hard-earned and deserved, could have been maintained and the disappointment teammates felt when they heard last week he had met with Hawthorn minimised.
Now he is in the toughest of spots, no guarantee to be traded and his reputation tarnished.
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He faces Sophie’s Choice as he weighs up whether to push so hard for a trade that his teammates won’t want him in the locker room or accept his position, stand down as skipper, commit to give the club 100 per cent in 2026 and eat humble pie to re-establish his standing.
Merrett’s outlook is understandable when you look at it from his perspective, and it should be remembered that his frustration is an accumulation of years of being at a poor club.
For god’s sake, what 20-year-old player has had to endure a season like 2016 when Merrett won the first of his five best and fairest awards? Nearly 10 years have passed since then.
Despite what many people seem to want to imply, Merrett’s frustration is not just a reflection on the past three seasons when the club has made many changes off the field under Brad Scott and even brought some young talent into the club supporters can bank on.
Those trying to paint his potential departure as a sign things are disastrous at Essendon are off the mark.
Sam Mitchell (middle) and the Hawks have enjoyed a great September so far.Credit: AFL Photos
They might be perilous because it’s the Bombers we’re talking about here, but calm united views expressed well could make this trade period a watershed for Essendon.
It’s why the club’s decision makers, despite their public stance and annoyance with Merrett, should privately consider whether they can get a great deal for trading the champion while always remaining happy to take him back if it doesn’t happen by October 15.
The 29-year-old had no obligation to agree with the plan presented to him about what lay ahead. He just had an obligation as captain to make his views abundantly clear to those who presented the plan to him.
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The fact is, nothing Merrett contemplates from hereon will make things completely untenable. He is contracted.
Unhappy players have remained at clubs in the past and will do so in the future. They often come out the other side happy enough or head in a different direction a season later.
Clayton Oliver at Melbourne, Ryan O’Keefe and Tom Papley at Sydney, Joe Daniher at Essendon and Josh Dunkley at the Bulldogs are obvious examples he should consider before embarking on a crash-or-crash-through strategy.
Merrett won’t be a captain again, but it’s time to take the temperature down a notch, head to the best and fairest function, and articulate the decision-making process he is going through.
The Bombers have a part to play in helping that happen, too.
With things out in the open, now it’s time to find a sensible solution.
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