Was Collingwood’s win in Adelaide all it was cracked up to be, and is the clock ticking for their ageing list?

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And then there were four.

We have two great (at least on paper) preliminary finals to look forward to, and premiership cases can be made for all the remaining contenders. But only two of them will progress to the last Saturday in September, so we are here to break down who they might be.

Sam Mitchell (middle) and the Hawks have enjoyed a great September so far.

Storyline to watch: The eighth-placed Hawks have won consecutive cut-throat finals interstate to book their first preliminary final in a decade. Sam Mitchell’s men also won a final last year, so are gaining valuable experience in the September cauldron – and have one of the most in-form midfielders in Jai Newcombe. Could Hawthorn be the 2025 version of Luke Beveridge’s 2016 Bulldogs, who stormed from seventh place to win an unlikely premiership?

This will be the great rivals’ first finals showdown since their classic 2016 qualifying final. That night, ex-Hawk Isaac Smith missed a set shot after the siren to ensure the Cats escaped with a two-point victory after the lead changed four times in the last term.

There were only five points between them – this time in Hawthorn’s favour – the last time they met in a preliminary final in 2013. The clubs clashed in five finals in nine years between the 2008 grand final and the 2016 stoush, in what became the game’s most captivating rivalry.

Head to head: Round 6: Geelong 12.14 (86) d Hawthorn 11.13 (79) at the MCG.

Form: The Cats will be well rested after having the pre-finals bye and this past weekend off, either side of their impressive 38-point dispatching of Brisbane in their qualifying final on September 5. They won 16 more contested possessions than the Lions, and took 21 marks inside 50m to six – including five to Jeremy Cameron – so it was a dominant display.

This will be the Hawks’ stiffest finals test yet, after outlasting the Giants by 19 points then blitzing Adelaide by 34 in what was effectively a siren-to-siren beatdown. Jack Gunston continues to star up forward, but they have no shortage of scoring avenues, while their defence was outstanding for the second straight week, and Newcombe and Josh Ward led a strong midfield showing.

Selection: Gunston (hamstring tightness) sat out the dying stages of the Adelaide win as a precaution, and might have his loads managed leading into the preliminary final, but is expected to play. Jack Ginnivan (hamstring tightness) and Jarman Impey (calf tightness) are also on track to play. Hawthorn subbed Mitch Lewis out of Friday night’s match after an underwhelming performance, so there may be a discussion on how they want to set up. Fellow key forward Calsher Dear (hamstring) is highly unlikely to be available.

Geelong’s Coleman medallist Jeremy Cameron will take some stopping.

The interest on Geelong’s side is whether ruckman Rhys Stanley (hamstring) returns. Coach Chris Scott could not guarantee after the Cats’ win over the Lions that Stanley would play in their preliminary final, but did say he would be picked if he proved his fitness. They used Mark Blicavs and Sam De Koning in the ruck in Stanley’s absence.

X-factor: Let’s go with injury-prone ex-Sun and Blue Jack Martin for Geelong. He played two good finals for Carlton in 2023, and there has never been any doubt about his talent or ability. The Cats have managed him well, including subbing him out of the qualifying final, and he will be keen to repay them for giving him another shot.

Josh Weddle is a brilliant athlete with a seemingly endless tank, who leaps for marks and can be impactful at either end or on a wing. He has started outside the centre square before going forward in both the Hawks’ finals, and has threatened to take a game over, so his time might be now.

Key stats: Hawthorn had 64 more disposals than Geelong in their round six fixture – 12 extra kicks, and 52 more handballs – and they typically move the Sherrin in contrasting fashion.

The Cats average the second-most kicks and second-fewest handballs this season. But the midfield battle looms large: last time, the Hawks won contested possessions and clearances by one each, and out-tackled Geelong by 21.

Early tip: Geelong by 11 points.

Storyline to watch: The Lions are trying to become the first club to reach three consecutive AFL grand finals since Hawthorn from 2012-15. Brisbane are contesting their seventh finals series in a row, and reached at least a preliminary final in five of those years. Coach Chris Fagan has done a brilliant job, while list boss Dom Ambrogio and recruiting manager Steve Conole deserve recognition, too. That the Lions are back to this stage after Joe Daniher’s retirement and with injuries to key players is an achievement in itself.

Brisbane Lions coach Chris Fagan and star forward Cam Rayner were all smiles on Saturday night.

The Magpies have copped grief for being a Dad’s Army with not enough young guns or draft picks to ensure a bright future, but they are in premiership contention again. That said, there is an urgency about Collingwood’s bid that, perhaps, the other three preliminary finalists don’t have. This might be the last opportunity for the likes of Scott Pendlebury, Steele Sidebottom, Brody Mihocek, Jeremy Howe, Jamie Elliott, Jack Crisp and Mason Cox.

Head to head: Round 6: Collingwood 16.9 (105) d Brisbane Lions 7.11 (53) at the Gabba. Round 21: Brisbane Lions 14.8 (92) d Collingwood 10.5 (65) at the MCG.

Form: There were questions about the Pies entering finals, after back-to-back heavy defeats to Brisbane and Hawthorn, then a narrow loss and win against Adelaide and Melbourne, respectively. But they were fantastic against the Crows in their qualifying final with an excellent spread of contributors. Adelaide’s subsequent straight-sets exit means there might still be some Collingwood doubters.

The Lions offered little resistance to Geelong in the opening week of finals, but were tremendous in thrashing Gold Coast on Saturday night to keep their premiership defence alive. They have been a bit like that this season – but anyone who watched Will Ashcroft, Hugh McCluggage, Harris Andrews, Josh Dunkley and Cam Rayner run rampant against the Suns will recognise them as a threat.

Selection: Howe (adductor) is the one to watch, but he declared this week that he was on track to return for the Magpies’ preliminary final, which will be a timely boost for Craig McRae’s team. Wil Parker is the most obvious player who will make way if Howe is ready to go. There will also be interest in whether 2023 Norm Smith medallist Bobby Hill (personal reasons) can state his case for inclusion.

There is every chance the Lions will be unchanged, assuming they were happy with playing Darcy Fort and Oscar McInerney in the same side, instead of one of the ruckmen, supported by Sam Day. Looking further ahead, dual Brownlow medallist Lachie Neale (calf) is still holding slim hope – however unlikely – of playing if Brisbane advance to the grand final.

Dan Houston would love to make his mark in next week’s preliminary final.

X-factor: There has been a lot of debate about whether Collingwood should have recruited Dan Houston, given his age, the club’s list demographics, and his output in black and white. Houston is averaging about six fewer disposals than he managed in each of his last three seasons at Port Adelaide, but this would be a wonderful time to show his worth.

Cam Rayner’s was scintillating on Saturday night as a one-man wrecking ball who the Suns simply could not tackle despite many attempts. The No.1 pick can be a match-winner in these high-stakes contests and another big game would go a long way to a Brisbane win.

Key stats: The Lions rank No.2 for clearance differential, and thumped the Magpies by 17 in that area in their comfortable round 21 victory. However, Collingwood were plus-10 in their round six win over them.

The Pies have not been particularly strong in winning stoppages across the season, but interestingly, have still outscored their opposition from this source, whereas Brisbane cannot say the same.

Early tip: Collingwood by three points.

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