Voters don’t punish Liberals for infighting, but Albanese on notice over rising costs: poll

2 hours ago 2

The Coalition is starting to creep up in the polls from a record low as rising anxiety over the cost of living has begun to drag on Labor’s post-election honeymoon.

A fortnight of infighting and backbiting has barely moved the Coalition’s primary and two-party-preferred vote while Opposition Leader Sussan Ley has gained net three points as preferred prime minister, though she still trails Anthony Albanese by a significant 14-point margin.

Labor’s economic management, meanwhile, is coming under heavier scrutiny as two out of three voters say they will cut back on Christmas this year and three out of five said they couldn’t afford any unexpected major expenses.

Labor’s primary vote is down one percentage point to 33 per cent, continuing the trend of support for the government softening since a post-election high of 37 per cent in August. This month’s primary figure for Labor is also below the 34.6 per cent recorded at the May election.

The Coalition’s primary vote grew one percentage point to 29 per cent, still below the dismal 31.8 per cent achieved at the last election, but it is also the second month in a row that the opposition’s primary vote has increased, after it hit a record low of 27 per cent in September.

The Resolve Political Monitor’s respondents were polled last week when the Reserve Bank said mortgage holders might have to wait a year for another interest rate cut, while foreshadowing a possible spike in inflation.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader Sussan Ley, with Speaker Milton Dick (right), at the launch of the Annual Kmart Wishing Tree Appeal. Two out of three respondents said they’d be cutting back on Christmas spending.

A substantial 91 per cent of voters surveyed in the November Resolve Political Monitor nominated “keeping the cost of living low” as an important issue. Health and aged care was second on 86 per cent. This is close to the 92 per cent who nominated cost of living as the most important issue going into this year’s election. It has remained a top issue for voters.

When asked to nominate the policy that mattered most to them, 42 per cent chose “keeping the cost of living low”. No other single issue reached double digits.

And in concerning findings for the Albanese government, 42 per cent of voters hold the federal government most responsible for rising living costs, up from 36 per cent in October 2024: 7 per cent blame businesses, 7 per cent blame the Reserve Bank, 11 per cent blame state governments, 16 per cent blame global factors and 14 per cent are unsure.

Resolve Pollster Jim Reed said cost pressures were the dominant issue and that would not change until prices came down, but he said the Coalition would not recover significant ground “until they get their house in order – which simply means a unified team working together to hold the government to account and present its alternative policy agenda – only their rusted-on base will stick with them”.

Labor would win again comfortably on current polling, but the Coalition is ranked within two percentage points of the government on the key issues of economic management, managing the finances and keeping down the cost of living. Both sides are tracking just below 30 per cent.

When asked if they could cover a major expense such as a new fridge or a major car repair, costing a few thousand dollars, 61 per cent of people agreed or strongly agreed they would struggle to pay for it – up sharply on 50 per cent in December 2024, while 24 per cent disagreed (36 per cent in December 2024) and 15 per cent were unsure (14 per cent in December 2024).

Seventy per cent of respondents agreed they would spend less on Christmas this year; 71 per cent agreed they would buy fewer or cheaper presents; and 63 per cent of people agreed they are finding it harder to make ends meet now than they were a year ago.

Voters were not overly optimistic about Australia’s economic outlook in the near future.

Over the next six months, just 20 per cent said the outlook would improve, 29 per cent thought it would stay the same and 42 per cent said it would get worse, and over the next year, 25 per cent of people said the outlook would improve and 42 per cent said it would get worse.

In the two-party-referred vote, based on stated preferences from people surveyed, Labor slipped by two percentage points and the Coalition gained two points, now standing at 53-47. This is a dip from Labor’s 55-45 result last month, matching election day, when Labor won a record 94 lower house seats, and down from the government’s record high 59-41 in September.

The poll of 1804 respondents was conducted from November 4 to 8. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.3 per cent

The increase in the Coalition’s primary vote and its two-party-preferred vote comes despite a month of bitter infighting within the two major opposition parties over support for Australia’s emissions target of net zero by 2050, and despite a small fall in approval for Sussan Ley.

The Liberal Party will return to Canberra this week to thrash out the final details of the party’s net zero policy and there is a growing expectation the party will junk or delay its commitment to net zero by 2050.

Ley took a massive hit to her personal performance rating in last month’s poll after losing two members of her frontbench and party infighting spilled into the public domain.

And after a series of missteps in recent weeks in which she called for the prime minister to sack Kevin Rudd as US ambassador; accused Albanese of wearing an anti-semitic Joy Division T-shirt; and blamed the government for stopping her visit to the Tomago smelter, her net performance rating fell further from minus five to minus seven per cent.