Victoria heatwave LIVE: State swelters under worst conditions since Black Saturday; fire threatens Great Ocean Road

Weather experts are predicting another hazy evening in Melbourne tonight when smoke from the Otways fire is blown across the city.

Health professionals are bracing for an increase in asthma attacks due to smoke. People most at risk include those aged under 14 or over 65, as well as people with pre-existing heart or lung conditions.

According to Asthma Australia, the nation’s peak body for people living with asthma, bushfire smoke contains fine particles and other pollutants that can penetrate the lungs. The smoke can trigger symptoms including shortness of breath, chest tightness, coughing and wheezing.

People with asthma are urged to keep their medication nearby, and use preventers to help reduce airway inflammation. It is also recommended to stay indoors and follow an asthma action plan.

“Bushfire smoke can have serious health impacts for anyone with asthma, even at low levels,” Asthma Australia CEO Kata Miranda said. “If symptoms do not improve or worsen, seek medical care immediately. In an emergency, call Triple Zero.

“Avoid going outdoors when air quality is poor, particularly for exercise, as physical activity increases how much smoke you breathe into your lungs. Stay inside with doors and windows closed, use an air purifier with a HEPA filter if you have one. If smoke cannot be avoided, a properly fitted P2 or N95 face mask may help reduce exposure.”

As of 8am Tuesday, air quality across Melbourne ranged between good and fair, but is expected to drop late in the day. The Bureau of Meteorology predicts that smoke from the Otways fire will blanket the city tonight.

“Once that cool change pushes through, we are predicting the likelihood of smoke across Melbourne and Geelong tonight, similar to what we did see a few nights ago,” senior meteorologist Jonathan How said.

“That will be tonight, depending on what the Otway fire does today, but that’s our current forecast at the moment.”

It is likely that Victoria will break heat records today, experts warn, with the mercury tipped to reach nearly 50 degrees in some regional areas.

Senior meteorologist Jonathan How from the weather bureau said there was a “pretty high chance” of setting records in areas across the northwest and west of the state, and that dry lightning later could further spread fires that are already burning out of control.

“Places to keep an eye on include Ouyen, Walpeup, Hopetoun, Swan Hill, and then all the way down to places like Horsham,” How said. “We could see January, or all-time records being broken.

“The highest temperature ever seen in Victoria was Hopetoun on Black Saturday in 2009, with a high of 48.8 degrees, but we are forecasting 49 in some places, so if it does reach that, it’ll be a new Victorian record. It’ll be very significant.”

How said it wasn’t just the heat that would wreak havoc on fire grounds, with dry conditions also a factor. “It’s incredibly hot, but also incredibly dry,” he said. We haven’t really had any good rain across Victoria so far this year.

“The one good silver lining is that it’s not as windy as what we did see earlier this month, but it’s still very hot. We may also see some dry lightning across the west of the state this afternoon, which might ignite new fires.”

Parts of Melbourne could reach as high as 46 degrees, especially around the western suburbs, with extra warnings that smoke could also settle in the suburbs on Tuesday afternoon and evening.

A spokeswoman from the State Control Centre said that while conditions around fire grounds had not changed much overnight, residents near the Otways fire were again warned to evacuate late on Monday night.

“It was the same information, to evacuate immediately. Otherwise, nothing has substantially changed overnight,” she said.

“There is a statewide total fire ban today. We have five districts with extreme fire danger ratings, and the remainder in high.”

There are a number of bushfire warnings in effect across Victoria, including several instructing residents near the Otways fire to “evacuate immediately”.

Here are the alerts in effect as of 7.30am AEDT – but if you’re in an area under threat from fire, it’s important you also monitor the Vic Emergency website.

Otways fire

The fire burning near Carlisle River remains out of control, with residents nearby urged to evacuate immediately.

LEAVE NOW. Police and SES are conducting door-knocking in the area, but they may not reach every property. Don’t wait for Police. The message is to leave today.

Those impacted include Aire Valley, Barongarook, Barongarook West, Barramunga, Barwon Downs, Beech Forest, Benwerrin, Carlisle River, Chapple Vale, Charleys Creek, Coram, Crowes, Dinmont, Ferguson, Forrest, Gellibrand, Gerangamete, Glenaire, Johanna, Kawarren, Kincaid, Lavers Hill, Lovat, Mount Sabine, Murroon, Olangolah East, Pile Siding, Simpson, Tanybryn, Tulloh, Upper Gellibrand, Weeaproinah, Wimba, Wyelangta, Yaugher, and Yeodene.

MONITOR CONDITIONS. The situation can change at any time. You must monitor conditions and be ready to act.

Those impacted include Carlisle Road and Irrewillipe, Irrewillipe East, Tomahawk Creek, and all other communities around the perimeter of the Carlisle River and Kennedys Creek fire.

Walwa fire

In the state’s north-east, the Walwa fire, near the NSW border, continues to burn.

LEAVE NOW. Don’t wait, leaving now is the safest option - conditions may change and get worse very quickly. Emergency services may not be able to help you if you decide to stay. Areas affected include the Nariel Valley, including McNamara Crossing, Staceys Bridge and surrounds.

STAY INFORMED. There is currently no threat to you, but you should stay informed and plan for what you will do if the situation changes. Those impacted include Walwa, Guys Forest, Tintaldra and surrounds, Nariel Valley and the area surrounding Mount Gibbo, north end of Lake Dartmouth.

Northerly winds are driving hot air down into Victoria today, leading to the state’s intense heatwave conditions.

A south-westerly change will push across Victoria’s western and central areas this afternoon and evening, and eventually bring with it cooler conditions to Melbourne – but not until very late tonight, according to the Bureau of Meteorology’s Simon Timcke.

“For the south of the state, it’s just one very hot day ahead of us, and we certainly will see milder conditions on Wednesday in the south,” the senior meteorologist told The Age.

The change will send temperatures nosediving in Melbourne, with a maximum of 24 degrees predicted tomorrow. It could also mean smoke from bushfires blows over Melbourne in the early hours of tomorrow, Timcke said.

In the state’s north, the wind change will mean “a bit of a drop” in temperatures – but nothing like what we’ll see in Melbourne, the meteorologist said.

A previously forecast week-long heatwave in parts of the state’s north has blown out to eight days, with temperatures in the high 30s or low 40s predicted through to Saturday.

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Welcome to our live coverage of Victoria’s latest heatwave and bushfire crisis.

I’m Isabel McMillan, and I’ll be keeping you across the latest updates as the state swelters through forecast record-breaking temperatures, and firefighters continue battling blazes in the south-west and north-east.

Here’s a look at how the situation is unfolding this morning:

• A dangerous heatwave is bearing down on Victoria today, threatening uncontrollable fire conditions while breaking temperature records.
• A statewide total fire ban is in place until 11.59pm, meaning no fires can be lit or be allowed to remain alight in the open air.
• Melbourne is tipped to crack 45 degrees, while parts of the state’s north-west are forecast to reach a record 49 degrees under the worst heatwave conditions since Black Saturday in 2009.
• Police and State Emergency Service volunteers door-knocked more than 1000 homes in the Otways yesterday, where the Carlisle River fire has been burning out of control and risks becoming more dangerous.
• Residents in communities south of Colac and large areas of the Great Ocean Road were warned to evacuate before sunset yesterday, or risk their lives.
• Warnings to “evacuate immediately” remain in effect for communities surrounding the Otways fire, while watch-and-act alerts also still apply for the Walwa and Dargo fires.
• Ambulance Victoria set up its emergency operations centre at the start of the heatwave over the weekend, and is prepared to redeploy paramedics to the state’s hardest-hit areas.
• Powercor, the electricity distributor for Melbourne’s CBD and Victoria’s west, said it would have bolstered crews, including dispatchers and controllers, ready for widespread power outages, as grids are expected to be overloaded with people using air conditioners.
• The Australian Open will open its gates earlier today due to the heat. Organisers have also delayed the Open’s wheelchair competition for 24 hours, and play on outdoor courts could be suspended when conditions are at their worst.

Keep following our blog today for the latest updates.