Tips and race-by-race preview for Kensington on Wednesday

Selections based on a soft to heavy track

Race 1

1. Kokatahi has the right depth of form from his three starts in his first preparation to be the horse to beat first-up. Was back 300m in trip when outgunned late on a wet track by Clancy before a spell. Both recent trials have been pleasing and sure to be hard to hold out. 8. Lipstick closed off the race nicely late when a close third at Warwick Farm a couple of weeks ago. Was placed on a heavy track second-up last time in and shouldn’t be far away. 3. Royal Silver attacked the line on debut at Canterbury running into second from back in the field. Was a $20 chance there so has to back it up but no reason she couldn’t.
How to play it: Kokatahi WIN.

A seven-race meet is on at Kensington. Credit: Getty Images

Race 2

3. Castagnola went back from an outside gate on debut at Kembla Grange and swept home late to get within three-quarters of the winner. Different set up from an inside draw and up in distance, if he handles the ground he should be a threat in an open race. 2. Baja Baby comes through the same race at what was also her debut, she raced handy and tried hard when beaten half a length. Perhaps on a wet track the outside gate won’t be a disadvantage but either way she’s a good chance. 1. Velaris steps out for the Waller/McDonald combination for his first start and he’s a little hard to line up. Had a number of trials over the past 12 months and is one to keep an eye on.
How to play it: Castagnola WIN.

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Race 3

2. Clear Proof is very much a take on trust proposition but if his last start is any guide he’s on the verge of a breakthrough. Ran well in a couple of solid races at Randwick before leading and being run down late at the Farm. If the same horse turns up he’s hard to beat. 7. In And Out was detached from the field in the same race when resuming and he worked home quite well late beaten 3-1/2 lengths. Should be better for it and while up 7kg gets jockey James McDonald and is a good chance. 8. Spaceballs resumes with blinkers off and is one that likely wants the track to improve significantly if her last run before a spell is any guide. She’d run well without winning on good and soft ground prior, trials okay.
How to play it: Clear Proof WIN.

Race 4

5. Elle Hudson resumes at a suitable trip and it’ll be interesting to see how he adapts to being ridden back a little. Placed behind Getafix at 1300m fresh last time in, handles wet tracks and he should be strong at the finish. One to keep an eye on. 4. Copacabana was a different horse when taken clear in front at Warwick Farm two weeks ago and he kept going to win comfortably. Not a lot of wet form to go on but with the confidence up he has to be a threat. 1. Canadian Ruler was a heavy track Highway winner in May, resumed with a solid on pace win from the outside gate at Canberra almost a month ago. Given he’s top weight here it’s no harder a race.
How to play it: Elle Hudson EACH-WAY.

Race 5

3. Big Red Tequila returned with a comfortable Kembla win then well supported when getting very close to Ice Kool at Randwick almost a month ago. Form out of that race is good and finds an event with less depth. Wet track a plus. 7. Vanessi is a handy wet tracker despite only one win from 12 starts and she should be fitter for an even effort first-up at Canterbury. Can race forward if needed and only win has come when second-up. Definite chance. 10. Nazwah showed plenty of promise in her first preparation winning easily on debut at Gosford before perhaps going a bit too quick up front and weakening late at Randwick in July. Odds-on both times. Can’t overlook.
How to play it: Big Red Tequila WIN.

Race 6

8. Clancy was strong winning on a wet track on debut and was very good at his second start. Stranded when resuming in a Midway at Randwick and couldn’t knock him for his effort to get as close as he did. Drawn out again but it may not be as much of a negative, he’s promising and should run well. 6. Ellipsis is naturally the horse to beat coming off a popular win at Warwick Farm third-up. Done nothing wrong and only heavy track attempt was a third to King’s Secret and Codetta in May. 1. Cruel Summer is very much a heavy tracker and if conditions remain a bit testing he’s an upset chance fresh. Won successive races on the ground last prep including once at this track and distance.
How to play it: Clancy WIN.

Race 7

5. Existential Bob is very close to a win and strikes favourable ground. Went forward from a wide gate to lead at Randwick last time and was just outgunned in the last 100m or so. Back in class, onto a wet track and should be fighting out the finish of this. 10. Outta Line won her first two starts from right on the speed before getting back a bit at the mile first-up and running into third against the mares. Expect she will be a lot more forward. 3. Mirra Impact isn’t far off a win if he gets the breaks and some traffic issues probably cost him second place at Warwick Farm last time. Has a show.
How to play it: Existential Bob WIN.

Supplied by Racing NSW
Full form and race replays available at racingnsw.com.au

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