The problem this Gaza ceasefire is yet to solve

3 hours ago 2

The ceasefire in Gaza was less than a day old when Israeli soldiers shot dead a young Palestinian man near the West Bank city of Jenin. The Israel Defence Forces said the man threw an explosive device at one of their brigades. The Palestinians said he died during a raid to displace more of their people.

This was not a breach of the ceasefire, which only applies to Gaza. It was, however, proof that conflict between Palestinians and Israelis can happen at any moment. It was the sort of clash that could wreck a ceasefire in an instant.

Hamas fighters break cover during the previous ceasefire earlier this year.

The peace deal appears to be holding, so far. But it is only in its early phase. The IDF withdrew as promised at noon on Friday, and the retreat was verified by US military commanders. Thousands of Palestinians began walking back to their homes, many of which had been destroyed by Israeli bombing and bulldozing.

Hamas, meanwhile, began preparing to return the last of the hostages it seized in its terror attack on Israel two years ago. The crucial test of the ceasefire comes on Monday when the hostages must be handed over. The deadline is 8pm (AEDT).

There is no way forward unless Hamas accepts, in full, its obligation to release the hostages. The group thought it could use the hostages as leverage after the horror of October 7, 2023, but all it did was invite unrelenting war from Israel. What else could it expect after raping and burning its victims? Its strategic failure is measured in the dead and wounded over two years.

This will not end the glorification of Hamas in some quarters – a sickening delusion – but it confirms the group’s weakness. At least six of its most senior leaders have been killed by Israel since the October 7 attack. About 8900 of its fighters are now dead, according to estimates by Israeli security officials earlier this year.

“The Islamist movement is undeniably the war’s biggest loser,” wrote Emile Hokayem of the International Institute for Strategic Studies on Saturday, referring to Hamas.

“Its bloodiest gamble has turned into the costliest tragedy for Palestinians. Its standing is in tatters, domestically and in the region.”

The key question is whether Hamas members will accept this verdict. After all, the ceasefire is only a tentative step towards ridding Gaza of Hamas. The group’s remaining leaders have rejected one of the key elements of the peace plan put forward by Donald Trump: the “board of peace” meant to oversee an International Stabilisation Force, including figures such as former British prime minister Tony Blair.

Control of Gaza remains contested. Israeli forces have withdrawn, as agreed, but they are still positioned in about half the territory. Hamas will no doubt try to retain as much power and territory as possible. It has made no commitment to disarm.

Even a decision by some Hamas leaders to disarm, and perhaps to go into exile, would not bind those who want to continue their stated mission of destroying the state of Israel. A lasting peace would require the fighters to drop their doctrine as well as their guns.

The cycle of conflict since 1948 suggests this will not happen. The Israeli destruction over the past two years probably means a new generation of Palestinians will be intent on vengeance.

Displaced Palestinians carry their belongings as they walk along the coastal road in the central Gaza Strip on Saturday.

Independent monitors are somehow meant to demilitarise the area, but Chatham House associate director David Butter noted the absence of any enforcement mechanism. “It poses the risk of a security vacuum in Gaza,” he wrote on the eve of the ceasefire.

There are many parts to the peace plan put forward by Donald Trump, and the US president may have a fair claim, one day, to a Nobel Peace Prize if his plan comes to pass.

However, a key requirement is that Hamas and other factions agree they will not have any role in the governance of Gaza, directly or indirectly.

We are not there yet. This should explain why Trump could not get the Nobel last Friday: it is too soon to be sure if the ceasefire marks the start of a lasting peace. In any case, the prize goes to someone who does the most for peace “during the preceding year”.

The glorification of Hamas remains an obstacle to peace. In fact, any option that encourages Hamas to remain active in Gaza is a pathway to permanent war.

No way back for Hamas

The simple fact is that Benjamin Netanyahu cannot let Hamas regroup. The Israeli prime minister has been given notice on this by the far-right ministers in his coalition government.

Itamar Ben Gvir, whom Australia and other countries have sanctioned for inciting violence, said he would bring down the government if Hamas were not dismantled. Another right-wing minister, Bezalel Smotrich of the Religious Zionism party, said Hamas must be destroyed. He has called in the past for Israel to annex Gaza.

Netanyahu has shown over the past two years that he can be merciless against Hamas – and the politics inside Israel give him no reason to change.

Israeli hardliners Itamar Ben-Gvir (left) and Bezalel Smotrich have been sanctioned by Australia and other Western allies.

Will Hamas change? It brought ruin on Gaza. It provoked an enemy it could not contain, and it lost. Some of its members, however, will remain convinced of their glory and will want to fight on. They will provoke Israel, and the response will be implacable.

When that happens, it will take incredible restraint to prevent a single clash from destroying the peace.