The numbers game: Inside the NSW Liberals’ leadership stalemate

3 months ago 5

There have been rumours, anecdotes and opinions swirling in the Macquarie Street bear pit this week as the NSW Liberals grapple with a leadership crisis. And then there was the intervention of Libertarian MP John Ruddick on Tuesday night, in a category of its own.

“Parliament has risen so I was heading out but heard a hullabaloo in the office of an old Liberal Party mate … so popped my head in and found myself in a Liberal leadership boiler room,” Ruddick posted on X alongside what appeared to be a scanned tally of MPs’ voting intentions in a showdown between leadership aspirants Kellie Sloane and Alistair Henskens. Headed “NSW Liberal Leadership Ballot – Voting Assessment Table”, the list showed both candidates with 15 votes, with three uncommitted.

“Fake news,” chimed in Chris Rath, a Liberal frontbencher and moderate leader.

Alister Henskens and Kellie Sloane are both touted as challengers to incumbent Mark Speakman.

The post is considered an inaccurate reflection of MPs’ voting intentions (Rath, one of Sloane’s biggest supporters, was counted as a vote for Henskens), but it touched on the ridiculousness of the Liberals’ leadership debacle.

Sloane and Henskens are both widely acknowledged to be circling Opposition Leader Mark Speakman, but for differing reasons have been unwilling to make a move.

Speakman has increasingly appeared under siege. He has not appeared at a press conference all week, and on Wednesday asked Sloane to attend the state funeral of radio king John Laws in his place.

Vaucluse MP Kellie Sloane arrives at John Laws’ funeral.

Much has been written about Sloane, a TV presenter turned businesswoman, during her nascent political career.

Elected as the member for Vaucluse, one of the party’s last blue-ribbon seats in Sydney, in 2023, Sloane impressed colleagues after being thrust into the shadow health portfolio a year later. She is considered a strong media performer.

Less has been said about Henskens. The Wahroonga MP and former senior counsel has spent 10 years in parliament, entering the ministry under then-premier Gladys Berejiklian in 2021.

Henskens has been agitating for more than a year. Widely dismissed by moderates, the frontbencher has picked up votes from the party’s right. Henskens rebukes suggestions he sits in the Right faction, but his power base lies almost exclusively with conservatives.

A tally of party room numbers conveyed by a senior MP, speaking on the condition of anonymity to detail confidential discussions, indicates Henskens is on 12 votes, with Sloane on 19. Two MPs are considered uncertain. With 17 votes for a majority, the five centre-right MPs could sway the outcome.

Henskens, a former senior counsel, has told confidants he has the mongrel to make the government’s life difficult and take the fight to Premier Chris Minns. Speakman, seen to be overly assiduous and process-driven, has faced internal criticism is he not enough of a political animal.

Some believe Henskens could “throw bombs”, the art of making trouble for the government, that many have desperately wanted Speakman to do since he became leader.

One right-winger said of Henskens’ leadership qualities that he had “experience, judgment and conviction”.

“The Liberal Party is a challenging beast. You need a leader who really gets it and understands it and has demonstrates they are a true enduring Liberal.”

However, moderate MPs question whether Henskens is too similar to Speakman: both are sexagenarian male lawyers. Both are fixated on detail.

Labor insiders, speaking on the condition of anonymity, believe Minns would relish an election contest against Henskens. Less so against Sloane.

There are also questions about Henskens’ judgment. In February last year, Henskens used parliamentary privilege to make allegations against a senior official in the planning department, only for the Independent Commission Against Corruption to clear them of any wrongdoing.

Six months later, then 2GB radio presenter Hadley claimed two senior conservative Liberal MPs – Henskens and Lane Cove MP Anthony Roberts – had been undermining Speakman by leaking against him.

Henskens admitted to texting Hadley, but denied his messages implied Speakman was “dishonest”.

Sloane has her detractors, too. Some MPs believe she has allowed the leadership debacle to fester as she has been unwilling to get blood on her hands and call a spill.

The Labor government has spent months seeking to wedge Sloane over housing. Minns has repeatedly ridiculed statements made by the Vaucluse MP.

Others question Sloane’s lack of political experience, particularly given the crises facing the Liberal Party. How would the nascent MP deal with an increasingly fractious federal party? How will she manage new NSW Nationals leader Gurmesh Singh during negotiations over net zero by 2050?

Liberal insiders, even some close to her, wonder whether a leader from one of the city’s most affluent enclaves can help the party claw back seats in western Sydney. Which brings up the most important political calculation: can Sloane correct the NSW Liberals’ dire polling numbers in the 16 months before the 2027 election?

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