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The well-heeled Mornington Peninsula is not the sort of place One Nation would have chosen to put its newfound popularity in Victoria to the test.
But the sudden resignation of Liberal MP Sam Groth has left the state seat of Nepean – which covers coastal communities such as Portsea, Flinders and Rosebud – up for grabs in a byelection on May 2.
The electorate has long been considered a place of affluence, politically dominated by the Liberal Party at least except for Labor’s unexpected victory in 2018. But next month it will be the opposition’s seat to lose, particularly because the state government has chosen not to run a candidate ahead of the state election in November.
That decision has turned the byelection into an unpredictable three-way battle, featuring a Liberal who has only just joined the party, a popular independent, and a One Nation candidate hoping to capitalise on the community’s frustration.
And voters are frustrated: at Groth’s decision to force them to the polls twice in seven months, at the state of the ageing local hospital, at potholes and the cost of living.
Phil Myers from Blairgowrie says that rising petrol prices are another concern in his neighbourhood. For a community so dependent on cars and tourism, the cost crunch caused by the war in the Middle East has had a major impact.
Myers is also worried about rates of homelessness. As of last year, the Mornington Peninsula had the highest number of rough sleepers statewide. “I do a lot of walking in parks in Tootgarook … and you see the rough camps. I don’t think anyone in Australia should have to be like that,” he says.
Other locals are more preoccupied with the sudden exit of Groth, who had risen quickly after he was first elected in 2022 to become the party’s deputy leader. His decision means the community has been stranded without a state MP and will soon have to cope with the possibility of a short-term representative.
Maria McPherson from Rye isn’t sentimental about his departure. “Sam Groth really hasn’t done much for us. We never saw him in the office down here. He was not approachable at all. So let’s hope the new guy will do better,” she says.
Pollster Kos Samaras, director of Redbridge Group and a former Victorian Labor Party official, says the byelection next month is likely to be complicated – with the Liberal primary vote in Victoria facing a “significant collapse” toward One Nation.
Although the Mornington Peninsula’s affluent, educated base typically dislikes One Nation, Samaras says Nepean also contains “peri-urban, economically stressed” pockets where working-class conservatives are increasingly likely to desert the Liberals. “[Nepean] is still a seat on my list that shouldn’t go to One Nation, so if One Nation has a good day there, that’s extremely ominous [for major parties in the state election].”
The Liberals are hanging their hopes on Anthony Marsh, a three-time Mornington Peninsula Shire Mayor who was preselected by the party in February. His appointment has garnered public support from party members, such as local federal MP Zoe McKenzie and Mornington representative Chris Crewther.
But the decision has also caused controversy. Long-time local Liberals were overlooked in favour of Marsh in a process that involved a heavy hand from the party’s state executive in Melbourne.
He joined the party mere weeks before he was announced as the candidate, ignoring a usual rule that requires members to wait two years before running for election. More damning for his detractors is the fact the mayor, who campaigned as an independent during council elections, had promised not to leave and run for parliament.
Sitting in a car in the small Western Port suburb of Shoreham, Marsh bats away any insinuation that he used his role as a councillor as a springboard to Spring Street. Rather, the unexpected news of a byelection forced him to consider how he could best serve his community.
“I didn’t have state ambitions. And that [was] absolutely true at the time,” Marsh says. “I’ve spent the last year and a half begging the state to pay attention to Nepean and the broader peninsula. So the easiest way to do that is to join a team to be part of that solution, rather than just talking from the sidelines.”
He is a vocal advocate for the improvement of local roads, having appeared on social media filling in potholes with Opposition Leader Jess Wilson. In the rearview mirror of the car in Shoreham, he points out a large hole filled with rainwater. A few passing cars swerve to avoid it.
“People shouldn’t require the candidates to get out and fill potholes … These roads are just generally unsafe, and that’s not good enough,” he says.
Then there’s the redevelopment of the 65-year-old Rosebud Hospital – which has become a touchstone issue of the byelection. Last year, the facility received $4 million for repairs and refurbishments from the state government.
With its outdated emergency department and ageing facilities, Frankston is the next best public option and it’s 50-minute drive from some parts of the electorate. Tamara Barker, who grew up in Rosebud but now lives in Frankston, said that patients were constantly being diverted from her childhood hospital to the one she now lives near. “Rosebud doesn’t have the services. The hospital needs the services,” she says.
Independent candidate Tracee Hutchison says she understands the importance of the local hospital more than most: she was born in the now-closed maternity ward. “We should be able to have a hospital that can do the most basic things, like day surgery … [and] not have to go to Frankston for everything. Frankston is too far.”
Hutchison is pitching herself as a true community independent, having rejected an offer of money from Climate 200, the donation powerhouse behind teal candidates and MPs. A move into politics for the November state election was always on the cards, but plans were accelerated after Groth stepped away.
“People are very disillusioned with the Allan Labor government. They’re very disillusioned with our representation here over a long period of time … [there is] sentiment in this community that that system isn’t serving us,” she says.
Her other key issues are the state government’s controversial approval of a major redevelopment at Arthurs Seat and a general lack of money for the electorate. “I’m as legitimate and authentic as you can get a community independent,” she says. “I need to be able to work with … whichever colour of government is elected.”
Another challenger for the seat comes in the form of One Nation. The party’s trademark orange corflutes are already pinned to power poles outside the local McDonald’s and in the windows of a few cafés. One couple at the Rye supermarket don’t have much to say about the byelection – except that they’ll be voting for Pauline Hanson’s party.
For candidate Darren Hercus, a self-described family man and small business owner, a pivot into politics was a platform to have his issues heard. His major focus is the impact that the cost of living crisis has had on small businesses – something he’s dealt with personally.
“It’s becoming almost unviable to run a small business … I’ve spoken to businesses all down Nepean, and a lot of them are saying the same thing,” Hercus says. “The other option is to run for parliament. I never planned to be a politician.”
Hercus flags housing, crime and Rosebud hospital’s redevelopment as other key issues. But on his party’s more contentious immigration policies, he stays relatively neutral. While Australia does need immigration, it must be better managed, he says.
Joining One Nation was a way in which he could hold the government to account. He says he wants to stand as a “real option” for residents.
“I’ll be certainly making as much noise as I can for the people of Nepean … On top of that, I’ve got to represent One Nation as well … to try and assist in winning more seats,” he says.
The Greens candidate is Sianan Healy, who works in women’s health and holds a PhD in history. She says that she never planned to get into politics, but is excited to stand with a party she believes in. “We made sure that there was somebody who people could vote for … who represented their values.”
Election analyst Ben Raue, who runs the Tally Room blog and podcast, says the Liberal Party will be squeezed on both sides of the political spectrum during this byelection. Progressive Labor voters will likely park their vote with independent Hutchison, and the small contingent of Greens votes will also feed back to Hutchison on preferences, he says.
“Then I wouldn’t be surprised if you end up in a situation where [Hutchison] is the primary progressive, and you’ve got Liberal and One Nation competing on the other side,” he says.
This situation creates a volatile environment for Liberal candidate Marsh. Raue says it is not inconceivable that the Liberal primary vote could be eroded to the point where they are “knocked into third place” during the counting of preferences – leaving Hercus and Hutchison as the final two.
But Raue is sceptical of One Nation’s appeal on the affluent peninsula, compared to the outer-northern suburbs of Adelaide and regional areas where they performed well in last month’s South Australian election. The demographics of Nepean tend to favour progressive “teal” style candidates over right-wing populism.
In South Australia, One Nation issued “open tickets” – meaning they did not dictate to supporters how to order their preferences on the ballot. The South Australian Liberals however preferenced One Nation – a move Raue says would be “suicidal” for the party to continue in Nepean.
On May 2, Marsh, Hercus and Healy all say that their preference will be decided by party management and are yet to be finalised. Hutchison says that she will run an open ticket.
No matter the result of the byelection, which is expected to cost about $2 million to run, the voters of Nepean will have to do it all again in November.
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