The early mail on AFL grand final selections and why this duel could define the decider

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Two of the most successful clubs this century – Geelong and Brisbane Lions – will battle it out in Saturday’s AFL grand final.

The Cats are into their seventh grand final since 2007, while reigning premiers Brisbane are alive on the final Saturday of September for the third year in a row, after splitting the previous two deciders against Sydney and Collingwood.

Saturday’s grand final promises to be another tense battle between Geelong and Brisbane Lions.

Storyline to watch: The Lions and Cats are facing off in the grand final for the first time in VFL/AFL history – and that includes the Fitzroy years. However, there is no shortage of big-time clashes between Brisbane and Geelong in recent times. Their most-recent showdown was at the start of the month, when the Cats cruised to a 38-point victory, while the Lions erased a 25-point second-half deficit to beat Geelong by 10 points in their preliminary final last year.

A lot went wrong for Brisbane a fortnight ago in their qualifying final loss to the Cats, including being cleaned up in contested ball (136-120) and haemorrhaging marks inside 50 (21-6).

The defining duel: Oisin Mullin also limited All-Australian midfielder Hugh McCluggage to 14 disposals – his worst output since the opening round in 2023. It will be fascinating to see how Chris Fagan’s Lions adjust as they try to turn the tables.

Head to head: Round three: Brisbane 10.10 (70) d Geelong 9.7 (61) at the Gabba. Round 15: Brisbane 14.8 (92) d Geelong 6.15 (51) at GMHBA Stadium. Qualifying final: Geelong 16.16 (112) d Brisbane 11.8 (74) at the MCG.

Form: The Cats started poorly against Hawthorn on Friday night, but largely dominated after quarter-time, outside the odd Hawks burst that kept them relatively close without ever truly threatening a comeback. Geelong’s Patrick Dangerfield-led midfield obliterated Hawthorn 20-5 in centre clearances, after trumping the Lions 12-7 in that statistic in their qualifying final. Brisbane responded magnificently to their week-one finals defeat with back-to-back strong wins over Gold Coast (53 points) and Collingwood (29). They comfortably won the clearances on each occasion, while an even spread of goalkickers served them well.

Selection: There always seem to be a grand final selection storyline to follow, and it’s happening again. The Lions’ dual Brownlow medallist, Lachie Neale, sustained a calf injury barely two weeks ago in their qualifying final loss to the Cats, but there is optimism – at least publicly – that he could be fit to play.

They also have to weigh up the risk/reward of playing Jarrod Berry, who dislocated his left shoulder again in a tackle attempt on Nick Daicos early in the second term on Saturday night. On the Cats’ side, coach Chris Scott remains adamant that ruckman Rhys Stanley (hamstring) will play if he is fit, but he was famously conservative in overlooking Max Holmes three years ago. We know they will be without Tom Stewart (concussion), so recalling Stanley would enable Mark Blicavs to remain in defence.

Will Lachie Neale’s calf injury recover in time to play in the grand final?

X-factor: Joe Daniher was superb in last year’s grand final, which doubled as his last game in the AFL, but Logan Morris has stepped up magnificently to be Brisbane’s No.1 target in attack. Morris has graduated from X-factor status, but his new sidekick, Ty Gallop, fits that tag well. Gallop was the Lions’ unlikely leading goalkicker against the Pies with three, and another strong aerial performance would be crucial. Geelong’s Ollie Dempsey was quiet on Friday night, but best afield when these clubs last met with 25 touches and three goals. His running capacity and skill make him a dangerous weapon for the Cats on the wing and up forward.

Key stats: Geelong have scored heavily from turnovers and stoppages this season – the blueprint for success – and look after the ball as well as almost anyone, which could blunt Brisbane’s turnover game. Both clubs prefer to kick than handball, but the Lions chip the Sherrin around more in a bid to control possession and rack up marks. That said, they also love attacking through the corridor to generate scoring opportunities. Brisbane know from the teams’ previous clash that the Cats are the AFL’s best at taking marks inside 50, so pressuring their ball movement must be a priority.

Early tip: Geelong by 15 points.