Sydney suburbs where the median home price is less than five years ago

2 weeks ago 7

It might seem incredible, but the median apartment price declined in 19 Sydney suburbs over the past five years, according to the latest Domain House Price Report.

Reasons for the falls varied, experts said, with some suburbs experiencing a surge in supply and others contending with decreased demand.

Kirribilli’s unit market has been affected by changes to NSW tenancy laws.

In some areas, there was an increase in the volume of lower-priced home sales, or a decrease in the volume of higher-priced home sales, bringing the median price down. In small markets, the median price may sometimes bounce around.

Price prospects for the suburbs were also mixed. Experts urged buyers to examine the data on a suburb-by-suburb basis.

The inner west enclave of Concord topped the list, recording a 31.3 per cent drop in the median unit price over the five years to December. Second was harbourside Kirribilli, which declined 23.1 per cent.

Other notable falls included Lindfield (-13.2 per cent), Blacktown (-10.1 per cent) and Sydney Olympic Park (-3.2 per cent).

Kirribilli had the highest median apartment price on the list, at $1.3 million, while the median in Blacktown was just $448,500. The Sydney-wide median unit price in December was $844,390, on Domain data.

Dr Nicola Powell, Domain’s chief of research and economics, said it was not uncommon for high-density suburbs with ongoing development to experience median declines.

“Some of the suburbs, such as Sydney Olympic Park, have had a heavy supply of new apartments, and that new stock has kept resetting prices,” she said.

A falling median didn’t necessarily make a suburb less desirable, Powell said.

“If you see a high level of one-bedroom apartments being supplied, for example, then one-bedrooms suddenly account for a greater proportion of the suburb’s stock.

“That affects the [median] price point because the mix of what’s on offer has changed.”

Suburbs with high proportions of investors – such as Blacktown and Kirribilli – were prone to short-term price drops when economic or regulatory conditions changed, said Powell. She added that investors started to return to Sydney’s housing market only in 2025.

Lorinda Mansfield, an agent at Raine & Horne Lower North Shore, attributed the decline in Kirribilli’s median unit price to ageing stock and changes to NSW tenancy laws last May that ended “no grounds” evictions and capped rent increases.

As a result, some landlords decided to offload studios and one-bedrooms, Mansfield said.

“As a result, we’ve seen more smaller properties on the market than we would normally see in Kirribilli, and that’s brought down the median price.”

Recently, the strata boards of several older apartment buildings in Kirribilli signalled they would undertake capital works, prompting some investors to sell smaller units before facing special levies, said Mansfield.

She said the Kirribilli market has already begun to rebound.

“If you look at the entry level, it’s very hard to get anything under the $600,000 mark now, whereas a year ago, when some of these buildings were going through capital works, you could pick up properties in the low fives.”

In Concord, the median-price drop could be the result of low transaction volume, said Ben Horwood, principal at Horwood Nolan.

“There are relatively few units in Concord, and they are diverse, so the transactions from which to gauge the median deviate significantly every year.”

As a result, Concord’s median unit price behaves “like a yo-yo”, Horwood said.

The stock in Concord is a mix of modest one- and two-bedroom units and spacious luxury apartments overlooking the Parramatta River.

“Very few of the apartments on the water transacted last year, and that’s probably what’s driven the slide,” said Horwood.

Powell said median-price data could be a valuable tool for seasoned investors hunting for value, but she cautioned first-home buyers against chasing bargains or timing the market.

Powell said owner-occupiers were better off buying when it was right for them, and seeking apartments that ticked certain fundamental boxes, such as heritage features.

“Smaller apartment blocks within walking distance of connectivity or village centres are good options too.”

Rich Harvey, buyers’ agent and CEO of Propertybuyer.com.au, said a declining median price could mean many things and indicated prospective buyers should do their homework.

“If it’s because the suburb has been rezoned for significantly higher density, be very cautious, because that could lead to an ongoing influx of supply, which dilutes price.”

If due to temporary factors, the suburb could be good value, Harvey said.

He encouraged young buyers with an eye to capital gains to assess an apartment’s financial particulars.

“Make sure the strata fees are reasonable and there aren’t going to be any special levies coming into play which could really wipe out a first-time buyer.”

He said buyers should consider liveability.

“You want something with natural light, natural airflow, a functional layout and decent-sized bedrooms. All those things are essential, I think, for resale value.”