Sure, the Wallabies are tired. That’s not the only reason they’re struggling in the north

3 months ago 10

The Wallabies have the chance to revive their tour against Ireland in Dublin this weekend, but the sense that a slow-motion car crash is unfolding in the north is not unfamiliar to the Wallabies faithful.

Since 2013, only two of the Wallabies’ end-of-season tours against Six Nations opponents have yielded more wins than losses. The first was in 2013, when new coach Ewen McKenzie guided the Wallabies to an impressive 4-1 record in what would turn out to be his only northern tour, and the second was in 2016, as Michael Cheika’s side went 3-2 in a tough tour that finished with losses to Ireland and England.

The Wallabies slumped to a demoralising defeat in Udine.

Such successful tours were relatively commonplace in the first part of the new millennium. To provide an example of how expectations have changed, coach Robbie Deans was on the brink of being sacked after the Wallabies lost 33-6 to France in the first Test of the 2012 tour.

Deans’s side went on to beat England, Italy and Wales in the subsequent weeks.

But aside from the 2013 and 2016 tours, the Wallabies’ record since then has been as heavy as a Dublin sky in November. Cheika copped a 1-3 win-loss record in 2014 then went 1-2 in 2017 and 2018, before Dave Rennie suffered a 0-3 whitewash in 2021 and a 2-3 reverse in 2022 (including a defeat to Italy that ultimately cost him his job).

The fatigue deniers may wonder how such a coincidence has now spread across three Wallabies regimes, under three well respected and highly experienced coaches. Of course they are tired. Poor Nick Frost could barely lift one leg ahead of the other as he attempted to track back against Italy last week.

Michael Cheika’s 2016 Wallabies side was the last to emerge from a European tour with more wins than losses.

That’s because the intensity of Test rugby is exponentially greater than it was a decade ago, and that trend line is not going to change any time soon.

But if weariness, both mental and physical, is a factor, it is not the only one – and it isn’t even the decisive one.

The Wallabies’ relative decline in the north has been aided by the accompanying rise of Six Nations teams. Since about 2015, and the Six Nations sides’ miserable Rugby World Cup in England – the hosts were dispatched in the group stages and the French humiliated 62-13 by New Zealand in the quarter-finals – three European nations have bounced back to produce their best sides since professionalism.

Ireland and France – coincidentally the Wallabies’ last two opponents this year – have at times been ranked No.1 in the world or looked like the best team in the world for brief periods since 2015.

Scotland, too, are effectively unrecognisable from previous versions that the Wallabies knew in advance they would beat. After the Scots were whitewashed in the 2012 Six Nations, they fell outside the world’s top 10. The current version is a historically good Scotland team.

There is, therefore, a cyclical element to the current balance of power that has shifted away from Australia. It might not last forever if Rugby Australia is effective in its pathways work and determination to improve the standard of the four Super Rugby outfits. It is no coincidence that the Wallabies’ relative decline lines up with the last Australian Super Rugby title.

And, without seeking to poke the bear, evidence is starting to emerge that a very good Irish era is coming to an end, as a Welsh one did before that.

The other factor at play, although this is harder to prove, is that the collapse of the old Super Rugby hasn’t helped the Wallabies’ attempts to be good tourists once more.

The South Africans provided a style of rugby that is far closer to the norm in the northern hemisphere than Super Rugby Pacific, and even the lost act of touring for weeks on end in unfamiliar surrounds might be having a high-performance impact.

The irony, of course, is that the rise of the north and the Wallabies’ relative fall is the product of the sport’s globalisation: the treasure that rugby league is currently chasing.

No rugby fan can sneer at rugby league’s desire to broaden its horizons without being a hypocrite – the international element of the 15-man sport is one of its strengths, and why wouldn’t rugby league want to enjoy it?

But part of that package is accepting the ability of rivals overseas to improve, even if it hurts the Wallabies’ win percentage and ultimately the bottom line.

That is what has happened over the past decade, and that significant headwind is still causing plenty of turbulence for the Wallabies.

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