'Sincaraz' heads for fitting final chapter of 2025

3 hours ago 3

Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner pose with the ATP year-end number one trophy

BBC Sport tennis news reporter

The battle is about to recommence.

Carlos Alcaraz emphasised it by using two emojis - a number one and a sword fight - in an Instagram post of him posing with Jannik Sinner after their pre-ATP Finals practice on Friday.

Whether Alcaraz or Sinner will finish as the year-end world number one is a key point of interest at this week's season-ending event in Turin.

Ending a long and gruelling season as the best player on the tour is a prestigious accolade, rewarding their brilliance and consistency over the previous 12 months.

Sinner retaining the title would be even more remarkable given the 24-year-old Italian did not play for three months, having been banned for failing two doping tests.

Spain's Alcaraz finally usurped his rival at the top of the rankings in September, ending Sinner's 65-week stint by winning the final Grand Slam of 2025 in New York.

Now the clear two-horse race goes to the last event of the season, with 22-year-old Alcaraz looking the favourite to win their duel.

"If Carlos plays really well there is no chance, it doesn't matter what my result is," said Sinner.

BBC Sport analyses the permutations for each player and who could potentially stop them. At the bottom of the page, you can vote for who you think will triumph in Turin.

Who needs what to finish number one?

For the second season in a row, 'Sincaraz' has been the absorbing narrative of the ATP Tour.

So it feels fitting the pair's battle for supremacy in 2025 - like all engrossing stories - will have a gripping final chapter.

Alcaraz goes into Turin in pole position, holding a lead of 1,050 points over Sinner.

This is what each has to do over the next eight days to finish as the year-end number one:

Sinner must defend the title to stand any chance of overtaking Alcaraz
Sinner needs Alcaraz to lose a group match and not reach the final
Alcaraz will secure the year-end top spot by reaching the final
Alcaraz can guarantee the position by winning all three group matches

Winning the title without losing a round-robin match earns 1,500 ranking points.

Players earn 200 points per round-robin match victory, 400 points for a semi-final win and 500 points for lifting the title.

"Ending as the number one has been an important goal for me since halfway through the year," said Alcaraz, who previously claimed the accolade in 2022.

The pair have dominated the men's game once again this year, sweeping all four Grand Slam titles between them for a second successive season and leading the regular tour by a considerable margin.

Sinner defended the Australian Open in January - his final tournament before being sidelined - and was beaten by Alcaraz in a classic French Open final on his return to major action.

A month later, the pair met again in the Wimbledon final, where Sinner demonstrated the quality of his mental strength to triumph and admirably bounce back from his Paris heartbreak.

The last stanza of their compelling Grand Slam trilogy took place in New York, with Alcaraz producing what he regarded as one of the finest performances of his career to ensure an even split of the four majors in 2025.

Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner embrace after their practice session at the 2025 ATP Finals in Turin

Who could stop Alcaraz?

With the top two seeds kept apart in Thursday's draw, Alcaraz was put into the Jimmy Connors Group - where the spectre of Novak Djokovic loomed large.

Seven-time champion Djokovic might be 38 and showing clear signs his power is waning, but he remains the player most capable of beating Alcaraz and Sinner - and stands more chance over three sets.

However, the 24-time Grand Slam winner remains non-committal about his attendance in Turin and will not make a decision until after he plays in Saturday’s final at an ATP 250 event in Athens.

Djokovic is playing there because he has recently moved to the Greek capital and has strong emotional ties to the tournament, which was moved from Belgrade this year and is run by his younger brother Djordje.

The group is rounded out by last year's runner-up Taylor Fritz, who has cemented his place as a leading star this year, and the ultra-consistent Alex de Minaur.

Novak Djokovic, 38, Serbia

Seed: 4

Best ATP Finals performance: Winner (2008, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2022, 2023)

2025 titles: 1

2025 win-loss: 35-11

Taylor Fritz, 28, United States

Seed: 6

Best ATP Finals performance: Runner-up (2024)

2025 titles: 2 (Stuttgart, Eastbourne)

2025 win-loss: 52-21

Alex de Minaur, 26, Australia

Seed: 7

Best ATP Finals performance: Group stage (2024)

2025 titles: 1 (Washington)

2025 win-loss: 55-21

Who could stop Sinner?

In the Bjorn Borg group, Sinner has a slightly tougher draw in terms of the seedings - although, like Alcaraz, there is still an element of the unknown.

German third seed Alexander Zverev and American fifth seed Ben Shelton are locked in, but Canada's Felix Auger-Aliassime and Italy's Lorenzo Musetti continue to battle for the eighth and final spot.

Auger-Aliassime, who made a late surge into the top eight by reaching the Paris final last month, has already arrived in Turin but knows his fate is out of his hands.

If Musetti beats Djokovic to win the Athens title on Saturday, it will be the 23-year-old who makes his Finals debut.

There is a scenario where both Auger-Aliassime and Musetti could still end up playing, though, because whoever is first alternate will step in if Djokovic pulls out.

Alexander Zverev, 28, Germany

Seed: 3

Best ATP Finals performance: Champion (2018, 2021)

2025 titles: 1 (Munich)

2025 win-loss: 54-23

Ben Shelton, 23, United States

Seed: 5

Best ATP Finals performance: Debut

2025 titles: 1 (Canada)

2025 win-loss: 40-21

Felix Auger-Aliassime, 25, Canada

Seed: 8