September dreaming: Why Sydney is set for a finals shut-out

3 months ago 22

Sydney is about to be starved of finals footy.

The Harbour City will host just two post-season fixtures before the October 5 grand final, with the potential for NSW missing out on all four week-one finals still a live possibility.

While Cronulla’s 40-16 thumping of Newcastle on Sunday kept their top-four hopes alive, the victory locked the NRL’s top six in as well.

Neither the Panthers, Roosters or finals long shots Manly can move above seventh and eighth-place finishes, and will be playing away throughout the finals.

Aside from 2021, when the NRL moved to Queensland due to COVID-19 lockdowns, the 2016 season is the only other occasion when Sydney has hosted just two finals and the grand final.

Canberra’s minor premiership and Melbourne’s top-two finish locks both into hosting a week one qualifying final, and either a grand final qualifier or week two semi-final.

A Storm-Bulldogs clash at AAMI Park to start the finals looms on Friday, September 12.

Win or lose, Canterbury’s next game would be a blockbuster at Accor Stadium with a 60,000 to 70,000-strong crowd a reasonable expectation given their drawing power.

A fifth-place finish is still most likely for the Sharks given they would need fourth-placed Brisbane to lose to Melbourne and then have to beat Canterbury themselves, while make up a 65-point for and against deficit on the Broncos.

The Warriors last-round clash against Manly with also factor into proceedings with the Kiwi side, Brisbane and Cronulla separated only by points differential on 34 points.

Shark Park has a capacity of just 14,000, but would host a week-one final if Cronulla earn hosting rights.

Should Cronulla finish fifth or sixth, they would host an elimination final at their much-maligned Shark Park before travelling in week two.

But regardless of where they finish between fourth and sixth, both the Broncos and Warriors will host at least one final each in Brisbane and Auckland, either in week one or week two.

Typically, Sydney hosts between five and seven finals each year. The NRL has gradually granted finals hosting rights to interstate sides over the past decade, with a side such as Canberra required to move a “home” preliminary final to Sydney under NRL rules as recently as 2016 (a scenario which was scuppered by the Raiders week-one finals loss).

This masthead recently calculated the difference between the Raiders or Storm hosting a final compared to the Bulldogs as being as much as $2 million in gate takings, based on 40,000 fewer fans and a $50 average finals ticket.

Canterbury fans will have just one final in Sydney this season.

The NRL runs post-season games and collects ticket and hospitality revenue, with clubs receiving a small percentage of gate takings.

Canberra’s GIO Stadium (26,000), Melbourne’s AAMI Park (29,500) and Auckland’s Go Media Stadium (25,000) would all likely sell out finals games.

The most lucrative finals fixtures though remain the Bulldogs playing out of Accor or Brisbane drawing a healthy turnout at Suncorp Stadium, where their last three home finals have averaged crowds of just under 50,000.

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