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Population growth has slowed to near-three year lows after net migration came in 17,000 people lower than the government had forecast, contradicting claims at protests last month that immigration was surging out of control.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported annual population growth has slowed to 1.56 per cent, with the country adding 423,400 residents in the 12 months to the end of March to take the total population to 27.5 million as government efforts to rein in population growth took hold.
Total employment across the country has barely grown over the past four months in a sigh the jobs market is under pressure.Credit: Dion Georgopoulos
But there are signs the job market will need more support from Reserve Bank interest rate cuts after separate figures revealed a sharp fall in the number of people holding down full-time work, with the bureau finding the country lost 41,000 full-time positions in August.
While the unemployment rate was steady at 4.2 per cent last month, that was only due to a fall in the number of people looking for work and a jump in the number with part-time employment.
The Reserve Bank has been circumspect over deep interest rate cuts due to concerns that the jobs market remained tight enough to pose an inflation risk.
But since April, the country has added just 24,400 jobs, with NSW, Queensland and Western Australia all shedding workers.
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Total employment in NSW dropped by 42,000 in the month, falling back to where it was in October last year. Only a collapse in the state’s participation rate prevented a sharp lift in NSW’s jobless rate, which increased by 0.1 per cent to 4.2 per cent.
By contrast, employment in Victoria lifted by 32,000 to an all-time high of 3.8 million. A jump in its participation rate meant the state’s jobless rate eased slightly to 4.4 per cent.
AMP economist My Bui said annual growth in employment and hours worked was now lagging the increase in the overall number of working-age Australians.
“Overall, the momentum of Australia’s labour market has been downward. While a 4.2 per cent unemployment rate is still quite low versus historical cycle, it has certainly trended up,” she said.
Unemployment has remained relatively steady despite a huge increase in the working population since the nation’s borders were opened after the COVID pandemic.
On Thursday, the bureau published figures showing that over the past 12 months, net overseas migration was 315,900, a drop of 19,000 on the annual result to the end of December.
It is down by 177,899 on the March quarter 2024. Net overseas migration peaked at 555,798 in the September quarter of 2023.
Thousands of Australians marched at protests in late August against immigration, cheering pledges to pause arrivals. About half of respondents told this masthead’s Resolve Political Monitor this month that permanent immigration was too high, far more than those who thought it was too low or about right.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers said net migration was on track to be 17,000 lower than what the government had forecast for the full 2024-25 financial year.
The quarterly increase was driven by net overseas migration, which accounted for 110,100 people. This number is highly seasonal as migrants, including international students, tend to move into the country at the start of the year.
The March result was 44,000 up on the December quarter but 12,600 down on the March quarter of 2024 and 50,000 down on the same period in 2023.
Natural increase – births minus deaths – added 34,200 people in the quarter, a 48 per cent jump on the December result.
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Commonwealth Bank economist Lucinda Jerogin said that if the slowdown in migration continued, it could pose a risk to the overall economy, especially if it meant fewer international students.
“A quicker-than-expected slowdown in net overseas migration poses some headwind to the expected economic recovery,” she said.
“Education exports are Australia’s fourth-largest export by value, and international students are an important source of labour supply.”
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