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The snap byelection in the Labor-dominated inner-north Brisbane seat of Stafford is poised to test appetite for One Nation and the ensuing flow of preferences in a typically progressive urban electorate.
A week after independent MP Jimmy Sullivan’s death, Premier David Crisafulli caught political rivals off guard after revealing the vote would be held on May 16.
The Liberal National leader will hope to leverage the government’s heavy focus on fuel security to agitate Labor’s solidarity under Opposition leader Steven Miles, whose party will be pressured to fend off a range of factors to hold a heartland seat.
Pollsters and strategists from across the political spectrum expect Labor, with the yet to be announced but widely expected Right faction candidate Luke Richmond, to win but are eagerly anticipating which party will suffer most from a rise in support for Pauline Hanson.
One Nation secured a primary vote of just 3.2 per cent in Stafford at the 2024 election and while it is not expected to attract the necessary support needed to join the crossbench, a vote in the mid-to-high teens was likely.
Redbridge Group director Kos Samaras said One Nation was now the largest political party in Queensland, according to his research firm’s polling.
But it would need to overcome a high Greens vote, which recorded a primary of 18 per cent in 2024, and defy favourable Labor demographics – university educated young professionals and public servants.
“It’s highly likely that One Nation hits the LNP and Labor’s primary doesn’t move, because Labor’s primary is largely made up of the type of constituencies that are not moving to One Nation in these parts of the country,” Samaras told this masthead.
Despite this, the leading pollster says the translation of Hanson’s surging federal popularity to a state level was intriguing.
“It will be a first window into what that world looks like,” he said. “With the caveat that we expect One Nation’s vote to be lower than it would be elsewhere in Queensland because the demographic profile of the electorate.”
The LNP was yet to confirm its candidate but former Brisbane City councillor Fiona Hammond is tipped to once again secure the candidacy after securing a swing of nearly 7 per cent in 2024.
Current LNP councillor Danita Parry, who represents the ward of Marchant that overlaps the electorate, was flagged as a strong option by party insiders who spoke to this masthead on the condition of anonymity to speak freely on internal discussions.
However, Parry would be forced to resign from her council position under new laws which is viewed as a barrier to her nomination.
When quizzed about his decision to hold the byelection in just four weeks’ time, Crisafulli told reporters the new member was needed in time to prepare for the state budget in late June.
“It’s important the community has someone who can be there to advocate on their behalf, regardless of what side of the aisle they sit, that is an important part of our democracy, and it’s important for this community to be represented,” the premier said.
The Labor-held seat has only fallen to the LNP once since 1989 during the Newman government, but Miles said the pressure was no different to other polls.
Pressed on whether he would stand down as leader of the party and opposition if Labor lost, Miles did not give a direct response, saying he would be campaigning hard.
“We’ll have a great candidate, and we’ll be a united team backing them in and campaigning in Stafford, talking to Stafford voters about their future,” Miles said.
Byelections, on average, tend to result in swings against the government or incumbent party, according to analysis by Australian National University school of politics and international relations postdoctoral research fellow Pandanus Petter.
Across the 23 Queensland state byelections dating back to 1996, the average swing against the governing party has been 4.2 per cent, while the average swing against the incumbent party has been 5.9 per cent.
The highest swing against a government in that period was 21.5 per cent against Labor in Inala after the resignation of former premier Annastacia Palaszczuk in 2024.
Meanwhile, the biggest swing to a government came last year, when the LNP prised Hinchinbrook from the Katter’s Australian Party with a swing of 16.87 per cent.
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