One Nation and Crisafulli climb in Queensland as Labor support wanes

The news

Queenslanders’ support for One Nation at a state level has skyrocketed, as the Labor opposition’s primary vote fell below 30 per cent and Premier David Crisafulli’s personal rating soared.

The portion of voters indicating they would place One Nation first on their state ballots jumped to 16 per cent – the highest support for a minor party in any Resolve Strategic polling for this masthead.

Primary support for Labor has fallen four percentage points to 26 per cent, while the LNP remained steady on 34 per cent. This left 41 per cent of voters backing minor parties, independents or others.

Crisafulli’s standing as preferred premier has shot to its highest point in Resolve Strategic’s polls for this masthead, with 44 per cent of surveyed voters backing him, while Labor leader Steven Miles, the former premier, slumped to 23 per cent.

Why it matters

The survey of 868 voters in two waves across January and February is the first to show a significant shift in state-level support for Pauline Hanson’s minor party, and came amid intense national debate about immigration, antisemitism and gun control after the Bondi Beach massacre.

Over this time, Crisafulli sought to differentiate his government’s response to the shootings as tough but “calm and methodical”, and void of the drama of federal parliament that ultimately saw the implosion of his Coalition colleagues’ agreement – including rejecting the national gun buyback.

The results mark a peak in support for a minor party in more than four years of Resolve Strategic polling for this masthead, with the previous high being 13 per cent for the Greens in early 2024. One Nation had previously only hit 9 per cent.

One Nation lost its most recent member of state parliament just months out from the 2024 election and despite fielding candidates in all seats, failed to win any, with a statewide vote of 8 per cent.

The party’s state high-water mark was the 1998 election where it polled 22.7 per cent – beating both the then-separated Liberals (16.1 per cent) and Nationals (15.2 per cent) – and winning 11 seats.

What they said

Despite commentary that One Nation’s rise has been at the expense of the Liberal and National parties federally, Resolve director Jim Reed said it did not appear to be the case at a state level in Queensland.

“This confirms that Hanson’s party is eating into oppositions’ vote shares around the country. They are the new place to protest or vote for change,” Reed said.

“That’s been felt first at a federal level where their main figures and issues are, but in Queensland this is bad news for Labor.

“The LNP government’s vote is quite stable again, and unusually it’s the Labor opposition that are falling foul to One Nation populism.”

Survey respondents indicating they would vote for One Nation at a federal level, but not state, said they believed the state LNP was doing well, they preferred Labor as the alternative, and One Nation had limited personalities or policies.

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