NSW Liberals vote plummets as brand damage hits state party

4 hours ago 3

The NSW Liberals have suffered a major hit from the toxic brand damage engulfing the federal party as well as ongoing leadership scuttlebutt, with the state opposition’s primary vote plummeting to just 28 per cent.

The result will heap pressure on NSW Liberal Leader Mark Speakman, who will need to calm a jittery partyroom on Tuesday after the byelection loss in Kiama at the weekend, where Labor claimed the seat once held by convicted rapist and ex-Liberal MP Gareth Ward.

Speakman has vowed to stare down detractors who believe a change in leadership could improve the party’s poor performance. The party’s primary vote has slumped 4 percentage points since July.

Several senior Liberals, including deputy leader Natalie Ward and planning spokesman Scott Farlow, have publicly backed Speakman remaining in the top job. Elder of the right and upper house leader Damien Tudehope said on Monday: “Mark Speakman has my support.”

However, there remains internal disquiet about whether Speakman can stay on as leader, with Vaucluse MP Kellie Sloane seen as the most likely replacement. Sloane, however, has ruled out challenging Speakman and declared her support for him on Sunday.

NSW Opposition Leader Mark Speakman (left) and NSW Premier Chris Minns.

Former NSW Liberal minister David Elliott weighed in to the leadership debate on Monday, telling 2GB that history has shown that a leadership change does not necessarily deliver election wins.

“I think he [Speakman] really has an obligation, and the party has an obligation, to keep him there,” Elliott said.

Elliott said he acknowledged that Speakman could not take the party to an election victory in 2027, but nor could any other candidate, which is why Speakman should “bunker down”.

He said Sloane was a “a loyal person, but she also is political” and would not agitate for the leadership because she would be aware of the long-term damage it could do to her if she took the party to an election loss in 2027.

While the NSW Coalition’s primary has dropped, Speakman’s preferred premier rating has remained stable on 16 per cent and NSW Premier Chris Minns’ has risen two points to 37 per cent.

Resolve director Jim Reed said the poll was conducted between September 9 and 13, before the Kiama byelection.

“This latest poll shows yet more decline in the Coalition’s vote, which follows the brand damage done at a federal level combined with the Liberals’ own stability issues at the state level,” Reed said.

“Voters don’t seem to harbour ill feelings towards Speakman. It’s more that they don’t feel anything, whereas Minns seems to be out there and mostly saying the right things.

“NSW Labor hold a comfortable lead right now, but it’s telling that the Coalition’s lost vote is not flowing to them or the Greens directly. Instead, voters are telling us that they’re looking at other options, including independents and One Nation, mirroring the national picture.”

Speakman was also forced to spend most of last week repairing relations with the NSW Indian community after Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price made disparaging remarks about migrants.

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