NSW Liberal Leader Mark Speakman is on borrowed time. He knows this and so do his colleagues

2 hours ago 4

The Kiama byelection should not have been a referendum on Mark Speakman’s leadership of the NSW Liberal Party, but that is precisely what it turned out to be.

Speakman, and his Liberal candidate Serene Copley, were never expected to claim back the south coast seat. The ghost of former MP Gareth Ward, who is in jail awaiting sentencing for sexual assault convictions, was their number one hurdle, followed by the toxic brand damage to the party.

Liberal candidate Serena Copley and NSW Liberal leader Mark Speakman in Kiama the day before the byelection.

However, when a government contests a byelection the result rarely goes their way. In Kiama, it did, and now Speakman has to convince his detractors that he cannot be held responsible for allowing Labor to win the seat that has been in Liberal hands since 2011 (except for two years when Ward was banished to the crossbench while awaiting his trial).

Speakman sent a strong message to those detractors on Sunday when he held a press conference with his deputy Natalie Ward. He said he would “absolutely” be the leader at the next election.

He also expressed loyalty to his chief of staff Cheryl Gwilliam, whom many in the parliamentary party believe should be moved on. Gwilliam was Speakman’s chief in government when he was Attorney-General. Working for the Opposition Leader is a vastly different job, and to one Gwilliam does not seem suited. If Speakman is serious about turning the ship around, Gwilliam should go.

Ward stressed her unwavering support for Speakman, as did planning spokesman Scott Farlow who was also at the press conference which was canvassing housing supply issues.

In the meantime, all attention will turn to Vaucluse MP Kellie Sloane, who is seen as the leader in waiting. Some in the party would love to see her strike now, call a spill motion for Tuesday’s party room meeting and take out Speakman.

Others see the folly in this, given Sloane is a new MP with talent but inexperience. Striking too soon could end her long-term political chances.

Sloane, who wants a smooth transition rather than a bloodbath, and has told colleagues that she still supports Speakman as leader. Yes, she wants to see Speakman turn the ship around, but she does not want to move on him.

Speakman’s best hope in the coming days is to remind his colleagues that Labor’s candidate Katelin McInerney claimed the seat of Kiama, but she barely improved her vote from 2023.

It looks like McInerney’s primary vote will be very close to her unsuccessful attempt when she took on Ward at the last general election (hovering around 37 per cent).

A win is a win, but the voters of Kiama did not flock to Labor in greater numbers. This should be a useful message for Speakman, but one that will likely fall on deaf ears.

In truth, Speakman is not taking the Liberals any closer to government. Indeed, Labor has shored up one more seat to make its task slightly easier in 2027, and the most recent Resolve poll in July had Labor ahead for the first time in 18 months.

Could another leader have had more impact since the Coalition loss in 2023? Speakman’s critics say he is a decent, intelligent chief who is failing to cut through. His supporters, while accepting his flaws, are adamant that no one could have done a better job.

The moderates, which are still the dominant force in the NSW Liberals, are standing by Speakman en masse. They want him to succeed. Others, including his nemesis Alister Henskens and right-wing lieutenant Anthony Roberts, would like Speakman gone.

Both men have different motives. Henskens believes he should be leader, while Roberts wants to reclaim his title as a powerbroker. The first motive is fanciful: Henskens does not have the support.

This leaves Speakman as the only real leadership option. For now. But as the election continues to edge closer, his colleagues will fast lose patience. Sloane may not depose him, but she will be the most likely Liberal Leader on election day in 2027.