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The Broncos have their work cut out for them. But they also have the game plan that could bring Penrith unstuck – if they can get at Cleary.
Only the greatest 17 minutes from a halfback I’ve seen stopped them in the 2023 grand final, but before Cleary’s heroics, Brisbane did set up what should have been a match-winning lead.
They did it the same way they need to attack on Sunday – using the speed and skill of Reece Walsh and Ezra Mam down Cleary’s edge.
Mam is named to come off the bench after his long hamstring lay-off. When he does get on the field – ideally against tiring defenders – Brisbane need him and Walsh attacking down the left, stepping and straightening the play up and trying to isolate Cleary and Liam Martin in defence.
These two-play sequences actually start with Adam Reynolds and Jordan Riki on the opposite edge.
Canterbury’s Jacob Preston successfully targeted young Talagi and Casey McLean last week and as good as he has been the past few months, McLean battled with a shoulder issue when the Bulldogs kept coming his way.
Reynolds needs to do the same with Riki and Kotoni Staggs. Send them at the gap between Talagi and McLean, work them over and build momentum.
If Brisbane can do that around halfway on the third, fourth and fifth tackles – when edge defenders typically grow passive and begin dropping back to cover kicks – then the long shift back left is on.
Brisbane isolated Cleary doing this in the 2023 grand final and dragged him out of the defensive line repeatedly. He could see what was coming, but couldn’t do anything about it.
Good luck to any defender in that situation where Walsh and Mam are using their pace, combined with their brilliant ability to step back inside.
This is when Walsh is at his most dangerous, and Canberra’s right-edge defence found out the hard way a few weeks ago.
Sunday’s grand final qualifier really could go either way. The only real certainty is we’re in for another fantastic afternoon affair.
Joey’s tip: Panthers by two
First try-scorer: Gehamat Shibasaki
Man of the match: Nathan Cleary
A Storm is coming: How do you stop these plays?
With Jahrome Hughes named to return from a broken wrist, the Storm No.7 has two key plays to deliver points against Cronulla. And they’re so effective, they might be all Melbourne needs.
Eliesa Katoa has grown into one of the game’s elite back-rowers under Craig Bellamy and he will be running all night at Braydon Trindall.
Katoa’s ability to hit the line puts the defence under so much pressure. No one finds space or isolates a half, forcing them to make one-on-one tackles, quite like him.
He makes life easy for his own playmakers and is a nightmare for the opposition, especially when Ryan Papenhuyzen sweeps around the back of those plays. Katoa has scored 25 tries in the past two seasons, and it’s easy to see why.
Melbourne’s other play is obvious to all, but it doesn’t get any easier to defend. Hughes and Cameron Munster are both so good at dropping the ball on a dime for towering wingers Xavier Coates and Will Warbrick.
And they’re near impossible to stop when they’re flying either a metre out from the try line, or leaping straight into the in-goal.
Ronaldo Mulitalo can match it with Warbrick, and Sione Katoa punches above his weight in the air, but he’ll be giving away 14cm to Coates and is an obvious target. Again, Katoa is one of the best in the game too as a mid-field kick target around the far goalpost.
The secret to the Sharks: A tale of two halves
Cronulla are at their best when their halves are full of confidence, playing together and making the most of Mulitalo’s skill, strength and competitiveness out wide on the left wing.
The Sharks did this brilliantly after absorbing everything Canberra had last week, and turned the game with two tries in three minutes.
Cronulla waited for their chance and were scoreless until the 34th minute. But when Nicho Hynes can link with Trindall and take on the line, they’ve got points in them.
Mulitalo’s first try came because Trindall was able to create a disjointed defensive line by putting Corey Horsburgh under the microscope, and Hynes was then good enough to thread the cut-out pass afterwards.
Nicho’s own try came after he and Trindall found each other again minutes later, first for a long break downfield, and then with Trindall’s inside ball for his halfback the very next play.
The Sharks playmakers have come a long way, and there’s nothing better than seeing a six and seven combine like they do, but I still think Melbourne are too strong in this one.
Joey’s tip: Storm by 10
First try-scorer: Xavier Coates
Man of the match: Harry Grant
From bottom eight to finals… and the top four
The two sides I see improving most in 2026 – provided they finally get some luck on the injury front – are the Eels and Dolphins.
Eels skipper Mitchell Moses was a big part of the club’s late-season revival.Credit: Getty Images
If Mitchell Moses can play 75 per cent of Parramatta’s games then I’ve got them playing finals next year. Jason Ryles’ shake-up delivered not just promise, by the end of the year it was genuinely delivering on the paddock.
Just look at their last three games: they beat the Roosters by 20, knocked off the Warriors in Auckland and put a record score on Newcastle. I think Jack de Belin will be a quality signing for next year and the Eels will be back in the top eight.
And as for the Dolphins, if they can get their best side on the paddock, I think they’re better than just playing finals – I think they’re a top-four hope.
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Isaiya Katoa will have another off-season at halfback under his belt and outside him will be a back line of Herbie Farnworth, Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, Selwyn Cobbo, Jack Bostock and Jake Averillo. If they can stay on the field, that’s one of the best back fives in the NRL.
Add Tom Gilbert and Tom Flegler returning from injury and the Dolphins are in great shape for 2026.
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