Mortgage rates are at their lowest point in years. Here's when they could fall again.

Mortgage rates could decline further in the weeks ahead if certain economic conditions are met. Getty Images/iStockphoto

Homebuyers stuck on the sidelines may want to re-enter the market as mortgage interest rates are on the decline.

The average mortgage rate on a 30-year mortgage term declined to 6.13% on Wednesday, its lowest level in three years. That came right before the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut to its benchmark interest rate, bringing it to a range between 4% to 4.25% now. But with multiple influencing factors at play currently, the decline in mortgage rates can easily continue into the fall and perhaps into 2026, too.

Rates here have been declining for much of 2025. They fell for five consecutive weeks over the summer and dropped to 11-month and nearly one-year lows just in September, before Wednesday's big decline. So rates can fall even further, perhaps even sooner than expected. But when, exactly, can they fall again? While timing the mortgage rate market is inherently difficult to do with precision, there are three upcoming dates on the calendar, which buyers may want to pay close attention to. Below, we'll detail which ones to monitor, specifically.

Start by seeing how low your current mortgage rate offers are here.

Here's when mortgage rates could fall again

Mortgage rates are fluid, responsive to multiple factors, and they can change daily. Here's when they could potentially respond in a downward fashion next:

Friday, October 2, 2025

The next unemployment report will be released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on the first Friday of October. And, if it's as poor as the one released in September (for August), the market could respond with cooler mortgage rates. Higher unemployment, after all, may encourage the Fed to loosen rate policy further. And mortgage lenders may price in that expectation by lowering their rate offers, even if it's just done temporarily. Keep an eye on this report for a small window of opportunity to lock in a rate that's even lower than what's available right now.

See which lenders are currently offering competitive mortgage rates now.

Wednesday, October 15, 2025

Inflation was at 2.7% in July and then rose to 2.9% in August, so all eyes will be on the next inflation report released on this date, detailing the data for September. Currently, the rate is almost a full percentage point over the Federal Reserve's hoped-for 2% goal. Any additional upward movement could effectively stall further rate reductions and subsequently cause the mortgage rate climate to stagnate. If there's improvement on this front, however, it could further encourage the Fed to cut further, perhaps even by a larger, 50 basis point margin. And that could cause mortgage rates to tumble lower, too.

Wednesday, October 29, 2025

There are only two Federal Reserve meetings remaining on the calendar for 2025. This is one of them. And with no meeting scheduled for November, the decisions made here will reverberate for months, including in the mortgage rate climate. Depending on the data the central bank has received at this point, a further cut could be issued. And that could cause mortgage rates to decline, even if a drop doesn't identically align with the Fed's actions. At the same time, they could elect to keep rates steady pending additional information. So if mortgage rates decline before this point, it may behoove savers to lock in a rate that they can afford preemptively.

The bottom line

While the above three dates are likely when mortgage rates can fall again, there's no guarantee that they will. Rates here change daily based on evolving factors besides just the Fed (the 10-year Treasury yield also continually impacts the mortgage rate climate). And rates can fall before, on or after these dates, too. It's important, then, to remember these days and dates, but equally as important to monitor the mortgage rate climate daily for opportunities to act. Don't forget that mortgage rates actually rose after plunging last September, so today's affordable options may not last indefinitely. Be prepared to act when they present themselves.