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Deputy Premier Ben Carroll says he is a marathon runner, but his colleagues say a putative leadership race between him and Jacinta Allan is effectively over before it began.
On Tuesday, Carroll dismissed his chances of taking over the leadership, after a Labor caucus meeting that could have provided an opportunity for a challenge instead turned into a non-event for agitators against the premier, and left top party figures conceding the moment was now gone.
Labor MPs left the meeting still pessimistic about the party’s chances at November’s state election but without having discussed replacing Allan, according to sources speaking anonymously to detail internal deliberations, who said there was now no clear catalyst to spark a change.
Speaking after the caucus meeting, Carroll said he was a “marathon runner” when asked if he had run his race, but went on to say he was content with his job as Victoria’s education minister. He said the leadership speculation was not coming from him.
“I’ve been a loyal deputy to Jacinta Allan for three years and that remains the case,” he said. “Internal politics is not what Victorians want.”
In a further twist, Victorian Trades Hall secretary Luke Hilakari broke ranks to criticise Labor MPs and candidates for taking the upcoming election for granted, and said 23 of them had not had any contact with voters in the past fortnight.
Speaking on ABC News 24, Hilakari said he was frustrated those in outer-suburban marginal seats were not working hard enough to connect with voters. He said if the MPs did not lift their game in the next fortnight, they would not receive support from rank and file unions for the election campaign.
“I have no interest in supporting a campaign where it looks like the local member of parliament gives two damns about getting the job done,” Hilakari said. “One Nation is a big threat to Victorian workers. There is so much at stake at the next election. We know it, we feel it, we feel the urgency. They should feel it too.”
While the latest rumblings about Allan’s leadership intensified beyond previous outbreaks of discontent, the prospect of a challenge had not progressed to the point where the number of Labor MPs supporting a change was clear, according to insiders who spoke to this masthead.
A Labor source, speaking anonymously to detail private negotiations, said there was also no concession from the party’s Left faction that any leadership change would need to be accompanied by a reset of policy, including a royal commission into Big Build corruption allegations and potentially adjusting plans for the Suburban Rail Loop.
The leadership saga has exposed divisions within Labor’s caucus. The fractious atmosphere is undermining Allan’s authority but also making it difficult to stitch together a coalition that could mount a serious coup.
Although Carroll has broad support across his Right faction, Victorian Labor is dominated by Allan’s Left faction. A successful challenge would need to be driven by some of the same Left-aligned MPs who installed Allan as leader to replace Daniel Andrews nearly three years ago.
Sending a delegation of MPs from across the party’s factions to speak to the premier about her leadership had been floated but was unlikely in the bitterly divided caucus, Labor sources said. This masthead has been told other MPs have begun urging their colleagues to either identify themselves as critics of the premier or stop destabilising her leadership.
Allan has been under fire since speculation reignited this month at the end of a difficult parliamentary sitting week, when MPs discussed whether a change of leader could reverse the trend in polls that show declining support for Labor.
The latest Resolve Political Monitor shows One Nation’s primary support has risen to 24 per cent, with Labor and the Coalition both sitting at 26 per cent.
Since that first sitting week of the month, Allan has maintained her intention to lead Labor to the election as the party seeks a fourth consecutive term in power.
Carroll, who was touted as the most likely replacement in the event of a coup, looked the premier in the eye at a press conference on Monday and said he would not roll her in the caucus meeting. He arrived alongside Allan on Tuesday.
Criticism of the government’s direction was not discussed in the meeting, according to two Labor MPs speaking anonymously to detail the confidential discussions. However, they said the mood remained flat despite efforts to strike a more positive tone.
Applause heard from outside the room was to congratulate retiring Narre Warren South MP Gary Maas.
There is now little time left for Allan’s detractors to move against her. One MP said a challenge this week was still a remote possibility, but that momentum had stalled and there was no looming trigger, such as another bad poll or a damaging political issue. Some MPs have speculated about a challenge when parliament resumes in July, but several dismissed this as far too late.
As Carroll backed Allan on Tuesday, he doubled down on comments he made last week that were interpreted at the time as part of a veiled pitch to be leader.
“Labor is leaking to One Nation,” he said on Tuesday. “The conservatives are hemorrhaging to them. They want a disrupter, they want people that will communicate directly, they want prosperity, they want security.
“They want to make sure we’re getting up every day, putting police out on the beat, police stations open, doing everything we can to bring forward all the measures we need to get Victorians feeling good about themselves.
“It’s about confidence and making sure where you’re unleashing the business community to do their job and getting on and doing what we do every day, supporting hardworking Victorians.”
Victoria Police and the Allan government have been criticised for the reduction in opening hours at some police stations, which Chief Commissioner Mike Bush has said is necessary to put more officers in the community.
Allan said she “absolutely” would be contesting the November 28 election.
“We’ve just had a fantastic Labor caucus meeting, where we talked very clearly about a big week in parliament where we’ve been focused on working people, and we’re looking forward to doing that,” she said on Tuesday.
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