Lachie Neale is desperate to play the grand final. Will the Lions take the risk on their injured star?

2 hours ago 2

Dr Peter Larkins rates champion Brisbane midfielder Lachie Neale only an “outside chance” to play in the AFL grand final despite the Lions’ public confidence in his injured calf increasing significantly.

The rematch with Geelong will be only 22 days after the dual Brownlow medallist suffered a right calf tear in Brisbane’s qualifying final loss to the Cats on September 5.

Lachie Neale is doing everything possible to return from a calf injury to play in the grand final.

The Lions initially forecast that Neale’s injury would sideline him for between four and six weeks – and be season-ending – but he completed an arduous session on Saturday, with repeat efforts and drills designed to test his calf, that puts him on track for a remarkable return.

Dr Larkins, who worked as a club doctor at Geelong and Adelaide, said Brisbane would have to accept there was a level of risk in selecting Neale, who has played only once since early August.

However, the experienced sports doctor said fellow midfielder Jarrod Berry, who dislocated his left shoulder for a second time in a matter of weeks in Saturday’s win over Collingwood, represented a greater risk than Neale.

“Grand final week always throws up really challenging selection dilemmas for clubs,” Dr Larkins told this masthead.

“He’s a chance to play because it’s a grand final, but you wouldn’t consider him if it was a home-and-away game because it would be too big a risk with an older player. He was coming off a quad injury, then he did a calf, so the match conditioning was not there, and he’s missed more time now, so it’s high risk.

“These decisions come down to the risks versus benefits. Look at [Scott] Pendlebury yesterday – he was out within four minutes, so this is what Brisbane will have to weigh up.”

Dr Larkins said matches present challenges that could not be perfectly replicated in training and may place greater stress on any lingering injuries, and that consideration would be crucial in their decision on whether to play Neale.

But Neale, who has played through injuries in the past, has done everything possible to give himself a shot, including multiple two-hour hyperbaric chamber sessions in recent days and completing every step of rehabilitation asked of him.

Neale initially looked to be out for the season when he suffered his calf injury.

There have been several grand final injury calls that clubs made in recent years in a similar scenario to Neale, with mixed results.

The Cats opted not to play Max Holmes (hamstring) in 2022 despite him passing every test, whereas Sydney took the risk with Sam Reid (adductor) in the same grand final, and it backfired as he laboured through the match before being subbed out early in the second half.

Melbourne also picked Steven May (hamstring) in the 2021 decider, and the veteran defender managed to make it through as the Demons ended their premiership drought.

Brisbane coach Chris Fagan said after Saturday night’s preliminary final victory that Neale’s outlook was “looking more positive than negative”.

Neale would be a big addition for Brisbane.

“We’ll just have to wait and see how he gets through the week ... I didn’t think he’d be a chance to play, but I think he is a chance to play [now],” Fagan said.

“I’m going to talk to the medical people [and they will] make a sensible decision. If it’s too risky, it won’t happen. But if they don’t think it is, then we’ll play him.

“One thing I do know is you can’t take unfit players into grand finals – it just doesn’t work – so we’ll make a commonsense decision.”

Dr Larkins was unwilling to say whether he would select Neale without seeing the 32-year-old’s calf scan, and knowing the exact location of the injury and the amount of inflammation. But he said that “September has its own medical rules”.

“Historically, calf injuries can keep players out for three weeks or even eight weeks. Four to six weeks is middle of the road, but older players can take more time to heal,” he said.

“He’s a running player, and you can’t hide in a grand final. I think he’s an outside chance to play. They’re saying he’s better than 50-50 now, but they’re just numbers.

“My opinion is the decision needs to be a medical one because the player, with all due respect, does not fully understand the risks, even an experienced one like Lachie.”

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