Hungarian voters face a big question. JD Vance thinks he has the answer

London: Racing to win a tight election, Viktor Orban needs all the help he can get in persuading Hungarian voters to keep him as their prime minister.

JD Vance, the US vice president, seems happy to help.

Orban, who has led Hungary for the past 16 years, is relying on his American friend to deliver a public show of support this week. Vance will oblige by arriving in Budapest on Tuesday for two days of events before voters cast their ballots on Sunday.

But there are serious doubts about whether the American intervention will sway Hungarians when so many Europeans are hardening their objections to US President Donald Trump, not least because of his war with Iran.

That makes this election not just a test of support for Europe’s most entrenched conservative leader – a man who wants to turn away migrants, stop aid to Ukraine and lift sanctions on Russia. It is also a test of whether Trump and Vance have enough influence to shape the outcome.

Orban is campaigning hard on policies opposing immigration and asserting Hungary’s rights as a sovereign nation within the European Union.

“Let us be proud that we are the only country in all of Europe that has said we will not allow others from Brussels to tell us who we must live with,” he declared at a rally for his Fidesz party last week.

But the war with Iran is complicating his campaign when energy prices are soaring and global growth is stalling – and his friends in Washington are part of the problem.

Orban is warning voters of a severe energy crisis. At the same time, he is careful not to blame Trump for starting a war that has led to an oil shortage. Orban could certainly do without this problem when he is trailing his rival, Peter Magyar of the Tisza party, in the opinion polls.

Magyar is within sight of becoming prime minister after a spectacular falling out with Orban in February 2024, when he revealed a corruption scandal, quit the ruling party and signed up with Tisza – a name that plays on the words for respect and freedom.

“I think this really will be a referendum on our country’s place in the world,” Magyar said in an interview with The Associated Press on Thursday.

“I think that Tisza will have an overwhelming electoral victory, because even Fidesz voters do not want our country to be a Russian puppet state, a colony, an assembly plant, instead of belonging to Europe.”

So, will Vance make a difference by giving Orban a blessing from the MAGA movement? Probably not, says Zselyke Csaky, a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform. Trump has backed Orban several times already, of course.

“It’s not the most important factor in the election campaign,” Csaky tells this masthead.

“Just like in other countries, people primarily focus on domestic issues, and foreign policy is often a background noise.

“For Fidesz voters, Trump’s support is further proof that Orban is a globally important player, but the endorsement is not something that will get Orban new voters or that will prove decisive on April 12.”

Csaky notes, however, that one foreign policy question could influence the campaign. A key member of the Orban government, Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó, is accused of disclosing confidential information to Moscow after his meetings with EU counterparts.

The revelations by The Insider and other media outlets included leaked recordings in which Szijjártó told Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov he was trying to stop sanctions on Russians close to Putin. Szijjártó says the claims are “fake news” because his objections to the sanctions were public knowledge.

Orban is a political survivor who may prevail against the odds. Once a member of the Young Communists, he entered politics when the Soviet Union imploded and climbed to power with a free-market agenda. Over time, however, he centralised power and made sure his cronies prospered. Democracy watchdog Freedom House marked him down for curbing civil liberties and the rule of law.

While the polls suggest a change of government, the Hungarian voting system has favoured Orban in the past. In 2022, his party gained 53 per cent of the popular vote and 68 per cent of the seats.

Csaky cites estimates that Magyar and his party would need to win the popular vote by more than 3 percentage points to gain a clear election victory.

Orban has also used his time in power to reshape the media in his favour and install his allies in key institutions. When the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe monitored the 2022 election, it found it was “marred by the absence of a level playing field” because the system – including the media – leaned towards Orban.

‘Trump’s support is further proof that Orban is a globally important player, but the endorsement is not something that will get Orban new voters.’

With so much at stake, the race to power in Budapest is one of the most important elections in Europe this year. The outcome will determine whether Hungary remains a friend of Moscow in both NATO and the EU – a key issue for Ukraine.

It will also shape the way the EU works because so many decisions require a consensus or, sometimes, unanimity among states. Under Orban, Hungary has vetoed more EU decisions than any other member.

Hungarians, however, strongly support the EU – and for good reason. Hungary is one of the biggest net beneficiaries of its spending, according to a tally by Statista. Germany and France pay most into the union, while Hungary, Greece and Poland get the most out.

Orban gains a political dividend with his base because he makes a clear distinction between Brussels and the EU, Csaky says.

“He portrays himself as somebody that fights against the ‘Brussels elite’ or bureaucracy, as a kind of ‘freedom fighter’ who defends Hungary’s interests. When it comes to the EU and the benefits that membership has provided, he is much less antagonistic.”

Vance adds another twist to this complicated race with his arrival on Tuesday and his plan for a major speech on the “rich partnership” between the United States and Hungary.

In theory, this might help Orban claim a practical benefit for Hungarians – as he did last year when he said Trump had offered a “financial shield” for Hungary if its financial system came under attack. There was no evidence of such an agreement.

In practice, there was no gain in the polls for Orban after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited in February, which means voters might simply shrug their shoulders this week and conclude that Vance does not matter.

Vance, however, clearly thinks he matters. He delivered a blistering speech about Europe’s failings in Munich early last year and said it was said its efforts to fight misinformation amounted to censorship. He accused the continent of losing its way on core values – and losing its relevance as an American partner. European leaders are still smarting over the critique.

Vance clearly thinks he knows what is best for Europe. This Sunday, we will find out if Hungarians agree.

Get a note directly from our foreign correspondents on what’s making headlines around the world. Sign up for our weekly What in the World newsletter.