It's important to know how far gold's price could fall before buying any of these precious metal assets.
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Gold has made some serious waves over the last year or two, first passing the $3,000-per-ounce milestone in 2025 before climbing past the $4,000-per-ounce milestone shortly after. That swift upward trajectory for gold continued into this year, with prices climbing throughout the first few months of 2026 and gold's price-per-ounce even hitting the $5,000 mark for the first time ever.
While gold prices have pulled back since then, falling to just $4,400 in March, they're still clocking in near record highs today. As of mid-April, they sit at over $4,700 per ounce. Can we expect gold prices to fall back down again, though? And if so, how far could they drop?
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How much lower will the price of gold fall? Here's what some experts anticipate.
Here's what experts have to say about whether gold's prices will continue dropping, and if so, how far gold's prices could ultimately decline.
Gold prices could drop to $4,000 per ounce
There's a chance the gold prices take a tumble again, especially given their most recent uptick. Just how far could they fall? According to Thomas Winmill, portfolio manager at Midas Funds, a drop of 10 to 20% is within the realm of possibility.
"Based on revised gold forecasts we've seen more recently, gold is expected to average $4,500 this year, and potentially top out at $5,800," says Brett Elliott, director of content at the American Precious Metals Exchange (APMEX). "There's also downside risk that gold could drop to $4,000."
It won't be a straight line down, though, and according to most experts, gold will likely see significant volatility this year.
"A few years ago, a $500 swing in the price of gold would have been considered unheard of," Elliott says. "But gold went from $5,400 to $4,100 in a matter of three or four weeks recently. I would classify this as a significant swing, and I do expect more volatility moving forward."
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That dip will likely only be temporary
If gold prices do drop, pros say they likely won't stay down for long.
"During the course of the year, we anticipate gold's price to show extreme volatility, and at various times likely lose value, hold steady, and grow in value," Winmill says.
Overall, though, experts expect gold prices to largely grow over the long haul. So having a longer-term outlook when investing in the precious metal is key these days.
"It's important not to be surprised by sharp corrections within a broader bull trend," says Hiren Chandaria, managing director at Monetary Metals. "In the near term, downside risk remains if rates stay elevated and liquidity tightens. However, over the longer term, I remain constructive. Gold has the potential to move toward $7,200, though not necessarily within 2026."
Thanks to interest from central banks, there's also likely a "floor" on how low prices can go — even this year, Elliott says.
"Eastern nations are stockpiling precious metals strategically, and they are willing to pay a premium for it," he says.
Watch for falling prices — and act accordingly
Volatility isn't ideal in the investing world, but experts say that, given gold's likely upward trajectory in the long term, the expected volatility can provide much-needed opportunities to expand your holdings this year.
"The key is to distinguish between short-term corrections and long-term trajectory, and in that context, any corrections from here should be seen as opportunities to accumulate," Chandaria says. "Rather than investing a lump sum, I would strongly recommend a buy-on-dips approach. For someone not yet invested, it makes sense to start with about 30% of their intended allocation at current prices, and then add incrementally during periods of weakness."
The bottom line
If you are buying gold, be sure to shop around and compare your options. In addition to buying physical gold, there are options like gold ETFs, gold stocks, gold IRAs, and more, and each has its own unique risks and rewards you'll want to consider. Talk to an investing professional if you need help making the right move for your portfolio and goals.
Edited by Matt Richardson
