3 weeks ago
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Sussan Ley may have been in the job for just seven months, but the political fight over net zero has so badly damaged the opposition leader’s standing that colleagues are now openly discussing whether, or for how long, she can hang on to the top job.
Ley is tough, there is no doubt about that: fronting up to a series of interviews on Monday, the day after the revised net zero position was settled, she faced question after question about her political future. She stood her ground.
Sussan Ley departs the Marley Flow Control facility in Emu Plains on Monday.Credit: Wolter Peeters
But as parliament prepares for the final sitting week of the year, there is heightened speculation she could face a leadership challenge from either Angus Taylor or Andrew Hastie in the week that has long been known as the killing season.
Numerous leaders have been turfed out by their own party in the final weeks of the political year, including Bob Hawke in 1991, Kim Beazley in 2006 and Malcolm Turnbull in 2009.
Neither Hastie nor Taylor has put their hand up – though a fawning profile of Taylor over the weekend in the Daily Telegraph did not go unnoticed – and allies of the two men in the party room insist neither is ready to challenge. Not yet anyway.
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Taylor is the older and more experienced politician, with more economically orthodox views, while Hastie is the younger challenger who wants to upend established norms about what Liberal governments should do.
Three months ago, influential conservative MPs who backed Taylor in the last leadership ballot insisted Ley deserved more time, respect and clear air to lead and insisted there was no challenge in prospect. Some of those MPs aren’t saying that any more.
The days of Ley allies pleading for more time have begun to slip into the rearview mirror; there is recognition now that a challenge is inevitable and, as is so often the way with these things, the advantage and the momentum will be with the challenger, not the incumbent.
But there still needs to be a trigger to bring it on this month, and it isn’t clear what that is.
The conservatives say that immigration is the next issue they will fight over. Ley anticipated the move and says she will swiftly release a policy to reduce migration.
Another trigger could be if some of Ley’s allies in the moderates desert her – as the conservatives would dearly love so they don’t have to do the dirty work – and while there are some rumblings on this front, a statement from Moderate leader Anne Ruston on Monday backed Ley.
The opposition leader could also (unwittingly) bring on a challenge herself if she makes a major mistake or gaffe. Beazley, for example, confused entertainer Rove McManus with US Republican operative Karl Rove in November 2006 and was gone within a couple of weeks, that misstep the final straw for some.
Given Ley’s recent tone-deaf call to sack Kevin Rudd as US ambassador, and her crusade against Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s Joy Division t-shirt, another gaffe can’t be ruled out.
Those are some of the triggers that could lead to a leadership challenge and then perhaps Ley’s downfall but, on the balance of probabilities, it’s unlikely a challenge will come in next week’s final parliamentary sitting of the year.
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But there is one final thing to keep in mind: “events, dear boy, events” as former UK prime minister Harold Macmillan famously put it, referring to the fact that sometimes the unknown can suddenly reshape the political firmament.
Once the leadership genie has been released from the bottle, it is nearly impossible to put it back.
The final week could bring a surprise event or moment that brings on a challenge – or it could even be that enough MPs determine that the Coalition is on the wrong track, that Ley’s leadership is not salvageable, and that leadership speculation throughout December and January is more than the party can bear.
In other words, a critical mass of MPs could grow impatient, decide it’s time to rip the Bandaid off, make the change of leader, let everyone lick their wounds over summer and start 2026 with fresh leadership in place.
The so-called “empty chair” spill that Tony Abbott faced in February 2015 is an example. None of the leadership candidates were ready, WA MPs Luke Simpkins and Don Randall called the spill motion anyway, and 39 people voted for an empty chair rather than the prime minister.
Ley and her team know a leadership challenge is inevitable. But it doesn’t feel like killing season – at least not yet.
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