Heat deaths to soar from ‘cascading’ climate risks, landmark federal report warns

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Heat deaths will increase more than 400 per cent in Sydney and will nearly triple in Melbourne at three degrees of global warming according to the first National Climate Risk Assessment report, released by the federal government on Monday.

The report finds that all Australians are already being hit by the impacts of climate change, which will increase over the coming years as temperatures rise, creating what the report calls compounding and cascading risks to all elements of Australian life.

Minister for Climate Change Chris Bowen has released a report showing the risks to Australia.

The report lays out the expected impacts at 1.5, 2 and 3 degrees of warming, and emphasises that the outcomes it describes are not inevitable, but what the authors expect to happen if Australia fails to either reduce warming or thoroughly prepare for its impacts. The world has already warmed by 1.2 degrees – and Australia by 1.5 degrees – since the industrial period due to warming caused by the greenhouse gas emissions.

“Australians are already living with the consequences of climate change today but it’s clear every degree of warming we prevent now will help future generations avoid the worst impacts in years to come,” said Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen.

“After a decade of denial and delay, we are acting on climate change – and it’s working. Emissions are coming down, there is record investment in clean energy and we’re working alongside communities to respond and adapt to the impacts.”

The report, released along with a National Adaptation Plan, comes as the government prepares to announce its 2035 emissions reduction target later this week, expected to be a range between 65 and 75 per cent.

If populations remain as they are today more 1.5 million people will experience sea level rise and coastal flooding risks by 2050, with sea waters inundating coastal infrastructure, homes and drinking water supplies, the report says.

Sydney currently experiences 31 days a year of coastal flooding. At 1.5 degrees of warming that would increase to 85 days and at 3 degrees more than 300 days.

Due to greenhouse gases already released into the atmosphere sea level rise will continue for centuries, but will do so more slowly at lower temperatures.

The report says that Australia’s climate will change so rapidly that weather records will no longer be of use in making climate predictions.

The assessment, while not producing a single overall number for the economic cost of climate change, notes there will be widespread financial impacts across the country.

Losses on property values are estimated to be $611 billion by 2050 as land, especially those affected by rising sea levels or more prone to flooding, becomes less valuable.

High heat will make certain occupations, such as construction and agriculture, more difficult.

Between 700,00 and 2.7 million additional work days a year will be lost by 2061 due to the high frequency of heatwaves. Labour productivity could fall by between 0.2 per cent and 0.8 per cent, at a cost of between $135 billion and $423 billion, by 2063.

The assessment finds that a 3-degree increase in average temperatures would result in a 444 per cent increase in heat related deaths in Sydney, 423 per cent in Darwin and 250 per cent in Melbourne.

The financial system itself could be put at risk.

“Financial system shocks or volatility can be triggered by asset write-downs or loan defaults across a region, with potential ripple effects for households and businesses by reducing access to finance, the value of investments or superannuation,” the report warns.

The nation’s farming sectors, from livestock to cropping to aquaculture, are all expected to suffer as the climate changes.

Higher temperatures will be a particular risk to the nation’s cattle herd, which is currently the most valuable farming export. If the climate warms by 3 degrees, European cattle such as Angus and Hereford breeds will experience at least 150 days a year above their heat stress threshold in more than 61 per cent of the country.

These cattle dominate the nation’s southern beef markets.

Even breeds suitable to tropical areas will face around 90 days above the threshold beyond which the animals suffer heat stress, which can reduce production or even kill cattle.

The nation’s large dairy industry, centred on Victoria, is also at risk with large numbers of extremely hot days that will affect milk output.

In sheep, heat stress can reduce lambing rates by 3.5 per cent for each extra day over 32.2 degrees. But this may be offset by reduced lamb mortality rates.