‘He won’t be intimidated by anyone’: The $400 million man who has Essendon’s future in his hands

In October 2011, James Hird and Andrew Welsh sat next to each other at an Essendon media conference.

Welsh looked awkwardly at his former teammate turned coach who, in turn, stared into the lenses of the waiting cameras.

“It’s with great disappointment and regret that we announce that Andrew will today retire from the Essendon Football Club,” Hird said.

The Bombers had hoped Welsh would continue into an 11th AFL season. After all, he was only 28.

But Welsh had other ideas, and big plans beyond football. He’d been hampered by a nasty ankle injury sustained two years earlier, and was also eager to build his career in business, which was already beginning to prosper.

So much so that his bags were packed. Literally. He walked from the press conference to an awaiting taxi that took him straight to the airport, and boarded a plane to China.

Welsh was China-bound to buy a large shipment of temporary fencing for a business he’d started and would later sell. This would set him up financially for a crack at the big time in property, which would within a few years make him a “young rich lister” in the nation’s business press.

Now, nine months into his term as president of the Essendon Football Club, Welsh holds the ultimate power in a decision that will do much more than shape the immediate future of the Bombers. The appointment of the next senior coach will determine whether the club can leave behind two decades of mediocrity and political instability.

Can Welsh, 43, the tough backman-turned property developer now worth an estimated $400 million, according to the Australian Financial Review, cut through Essendon’s factions and pick the right coach, who must himself be able to withstand the political influences that, in part, did his predecessor in? 

Few people have watched Welsh’s transformation from footballer to businessman more closely than veteran investor and Casey Capital founder Mark Casey, who mentored Welsh during the formative years of his business career.

Welsh’s rise is often attributed to a shrewd investment in Melbourne’s booming western growth corridor - in particular, a bold investment in a parcel of land at Rockbank before the area was transformed by urban expansion and rezoning - but Casey dismisses any suggestion Welsh’s success was built on good fortune.

“The harder you work, the luckier you get,” Casey said.

“Opportunities can fly past people’s heads and they’ll think it’s just a gust of wind. You’ve got to know what you’re looking for.”

“He put in a strong apprenticeship with me. He knew how to put a contract together. He knew how to approach farmers. He knew how to put a deal together.

“That doesn’t come from luck. That only comes from hard work.”

Casey, whose brother Clinton was president of Richmond in the early 2000s, said the same qualities that helped Welsh build a property empire from scratch are now being brought to one of the most difficult jobs in football.

As the China trip illustrated, Welsh was putting the building blocks in place for his post-football career while he was still in red and black. He did work placements to learn about the world of business and was one of three shareholders in property developer Welsh Group, including his father Graham. The company branched out to urban residential building, focusing on medium-density housing estates.

Further investment followed in Woodend, plus a regional development in Bendigo, capitalising on people moving from big cities driven by the pandemic, and an expansion of the Thornhill Park estate in Melbourne’s outer-west. Again, Welsh was ahead of the curve. “I was really positive about regional towns even before COVID-19 supercharged demand,” he told the AFR in 2022.

As Welsh rebuilds Essendon, those who know him best believe his greatest asset won’t be his wealth, his football pedigree or even his business success. It will be his judgment.

Casey says he does the work to reach the right conclusion.

“He’ll leave no stone unturned,” Casey said.

“He loves the club. He’s got the focus and determination to win.

“He’ll canvass the right people, take everything on board and then make an informed decision.”

That process-driven approach may prove particularly important at Essendon, where previous administrations have often found themselves consumed by external pressure, competing agendas and the constant scrutiny that accompanies one of the AFL’s biggest clubs.

Casey believes Welsh is uniquely equipped to withstand it.

“It’s a thankless task being president of any football club,” he said.

“But Andrew Welsh has the backbone to carry the load and make the hard decisions and the right decisions.

“He won’t be intimidated by anyone. He won’t be cajoled, manipulated or pressured into making any rushed decisions.”

Asked whether Welsh could be pushed around by powerful figures inside or outside the football club, Casey was emphatic.

“No chance. Absolutely no chance.”

Welsh, who declined to be interviewed for this story, joined the Essendon board in 2022, and was anointed by then president David Barham as his successor.

He rose to the job in September last year after Barham stepped down, and began his presidency with a rallying cry from the lectern at Essendon’s Crichton Medal best and fairest dinner. “We win together, we lose together. But we stick together – and when we stick together, we’re a formidable club,” he said.

There has been a lot of losing since then, and Welsh and his board acted decisively to sack coach Brad Scott despite telling this masthead’s chief football writer Jake Niall that Scott would be Essendon’s next premiership coach.

But he has not wavered from the unity pledge.

Ahead of the Bombers’ round one clash with Hawthorn this year, Welsh organised for every living former Essendon president to be at the pre-game function.

Barham, Paul Brasher, Lindsay Tanner, Paul Little, David Evans and Greg Sewell were all there.

It was the first time all had been in the same room together.

At a club that has too often been fractured by competing power centres and lingering divisions, he wanted the past and present aligned behind a common purpose.

It was also a sign of Welsh’s leadership style. Rather than drawing a line between old administrations and the new regime, he sought to embrace the club’s history, acknowledge the contributions of those who came before him and foster a sense that everyone had a role to play in Essendon’s future.

As Welsh prepares to oversee the most important coaching appointment in Essendon’s modern history, the same question hangs over the club he now leads.

What does he see that others don’t?

His professional success was built on making a long-term judgement before the rest of the market caught up.

There is more than usual riding on Essendon’s coaching decision because of the very public role of Hird, the champion player who sat beside Welsh at his retirement announcement, has made it abundantly clear he wants the job. Not to mention the potential candidacy of Dean Solomon, with whom Welsh has shared a back line and a boardroom, and who is currently the interim coach. 

Essendon insist they will undertake a comprehensive process to appoint its next coach. There will be interviews, presentations, reference checks and recommendations.

But when all of that is complete, Welsh will make the final call.

And while coaches are appointed by process, history suggests they are often chosen by conviction.

The challenge confronting Welsh is not unlike the one that confronted him as a businessman years ago. Amid competing opinions, conflicting advice and considerable risk, he must identify what others have missed. Not simply the best credentialled candidate, but the right one. The person capable of dragging a once great football club out of a two-decade malaise.

If he chooses well, he could become the president who helped restore Essendon. If he gets it wrong, he will join a long list of club leaders who discovered that rebuilding the Bombers is considerably harder than building wealth.

One of the first phone calls Welsh received before his AFL debut came from Hird.

Welsh was preparing for his first game for Essendon in round seven, 2002, a week after one of the most horrifying incidents in modern football. Captain James Hird had collided with teammate Mark McVeigh during a match against Fremantle in Perth, suffering shocking facial injuries that left him requiring extensive reconstructive surgery and metal plates inserted into his face.

Hird’s football future was uncertain. But amid the pain, surgery and recovery, Hird found time to ring a nervous teenager preparing for his first AFL game.

But Hird had left it late and by the time he rang then club doctor Bruce Reid, Welsh’s debut was less than an hour away. Reid ran onto the ground where Welsh was warming up and held out the phone. Hird, battered and broken after a life-altering injury, was on the other end.

It was a small act, but one that left a lasting impression. Welsh played well. He had 17 disposals off half-back and played in a victory over arch rivals Carlton. He held his place in the team and played in elimination final win over West Coast.

He played in two more elimination final wins in the next two years, forging a career built on discipline, resilience and selflessness. The club hasn’t won one since.

McVeigh, the teammate involved in the collision that left Hird’s face shattered, is also viewed as a potential candidate to return to the club in a senior football role.

People close to Welsh say he will not be influenced by friendships or external pressures as he and chief executive Tim Roberts settle on the criteria and process to find Essendon’s next coach.

They describe a figure who has built his career on patience, preparation and conviction. A businessman who spent years learning his craft before striking out on his own. A former footballer whose success came not through shortcuts, but persistence.

The final lesson Casey says he passed on to his former protege was a simple one.

“There’s always a way.”

For a club desperately searching for one, Essendon can only hope he’s right.