From premiership heroes to trade bait: The big calls looming at Melbourne

3 months ago 24

Melbourne president Brad Green insisted on Tuesday, when explaining why coach Simon Goodwin had been sacked, that the Demons have the capability to return to the finals next season. But the wider football world is split on this assertion.

We break down the Demons’ playing list and game plan, analysing what the new coach replacing Goodwin will inherit at Melbourne and what changes will need to be made in the hope of resurrecting a talent-laden team which sits in 12th spot with seven wins, having squandered what should have been a premiership era.

Simon Goodwin (right) is gone, but what happens with Christian Petracca from here remains a point of interest.

What to do with Petracca, Oliver, May and Fritsch?

Champion Data statistics show Clayton Oliver is ranked only average, and Christian Petracca above average, for their positions this season. Many in the football industry claim the Demons missed a trick last season when they should have traded Oliver – contracted until the end of 2030 – to the Cats when his value was high. Once the bull in the middle, Oliver’s lack of pace – emblematic of the Demons’ midfield – can be exploited, and he has even been used as a tagger this season.

Petracca, contracted until the end of 2029, was also disgruntled at the time after his career-threatening injury, and overall club cultural issues, and was also keen on leaving. Instead, the Demons held firm.

It remains to be seen what the new coach wants, but competition sources expect the Demons this time to at least hear what any rival club may be willing to offer – should a call come. This could lead to salary-cap relief, and a first-round draft pick. However, as one rival club source said, Oliver and Petracca may not be keen on playing for the new coach, and could test the market themselves.

Steven May is also a curious case. While his behaviour and unfiltered feedback on and off-field can be polarising – just ask Max Gawn after the King’s Birthday clash – he remains a key defensive pillar, although rival club sources have questioned whether he has lost half a step when handling leading forwards. He is contracted until the end of 2026 but, at 33, could be worth a look by a club firmly in the premiership window.

It hasn’t also been lost that premiership forward Bayley Fritsch, with a modest 31 goals this season (ranked above average), is contracted to only the end of next season, when he will be a free agent. Goodwin had shut down speculation Fritsch could be traded.

Off-contract calls

This masthead’s Money Talks column has confirmed there are 15 players off contract: Jack Billings, Tom Campbell, Jai Culley, Tom Fullarton, Jack Henderson, Marty Hore, Tom McDonald, Judd McVee, Jake Melksham, Ricky Mentha, Andy Moniz-Wakefield, Oliver Sestan, Charlie Spargo, Will Verrall and Taj Woewodin.

Goodwin had great relationships with many of his players, particularly Melksham, who he mentioned at his farewell press conference. Melksham has had a career renaissance this season, and appeared all but certain to remain, but that could change.

McVee is a fascinating case. He is part of the youth movement, but has interest from both Western Australians clubs to return home. Kysaiah Pickett is contracted through until the end of 2034, but he, too, had a strong relationship with Goodwin.

Youth movement

The Demons have impressive youngsters, including excellent ball user Xavier Lindsay (19), Harvey Langford (19), Caleb Windsor (20) and Koltyn Tholstrup (20). Key forward Jacob Van Rooyen (22) has played 53 games and has time on his side, but remains an enigma inside attacking 50.

Small defender Jake Bowey (22) is already a premiership player and a regular selection, but, with 76 senior games, is still working towards his prime. McVee (22) has 60 games to his credit, and is also on the rise. The Demons will not want to lose him.

The indicative 2025 national draft order could see the Demons’ first pick being at No.24, as they do not have a first-round selection because of last year’s pick swaps for Essendon’s No.9 selection, allowing them to take Lindsay.

One recruiting source said the Demons may need to consider a serious back-up for Max Gawn, while a key forward should also be of interest.

Can a new coach provide the immediate bump Green wants?

This remains an intriguing question. One competition source questioned whether the Demons needed to take a step back, allowing the youngsters to emerge and embrace a new game plan, before they could contend again.

Max Gawn and Jake Lever watch Simon Goodwin’s farewell.

However, this also depends on the vision of the new coach, and how honest he – and the club’s executive and board – are about where the team sits.

The Demons have not won a final since their 2021 premiership triumph.

Collingwood great Nathan Buckley, who on Wednesday confirmed his interest in the top job, said he agreed with Goodwin’s assertion that the Demons could rise quicker than many expected. But this came with the caveats of a refreshed game plan, and a harmonious club culture.

However, AFL greats James Hird and Rory Sloane, speaking on Nine’s Footy Classified, do not expect the Demons to play finals for at least two years.

Hird, who has ruled himself out of the Demons job, said Gawn, 34, was “probably not” going to be there for their next flag.

“They have a demographic that is [good] age wise, but I don’t think they have the young talent and ability to move the ball. It is going to take two or three years to get them back to the top end of the finals, maybe a couple to get back into the bottom end of the finals,” Hird said.

Hard-running wingman Ed Langdon said on Wednesday the Demons still had a strong core group of players, and finals “will certainly be the goal next year”.

Speaking of the game plan

After a winless opening five rounds, Goodwin stressed the need for a more attacking game plan, and better ball movement. Goodwin had been too slow in enacting change over the past two seasons, where the game shifted to a more running, uncontested style, not the grit and grind which had served the Demons well.

The problem was, while this new style was sometimes on show, it wasn’t always the case. The Demons still too often bombed the ball inside attacking 50, rather than handballing their way through traffic and looking for a pass to just outside the arc, allowing then for deep entries towards goal.

“He [Goodwin] won a premiership with a game plan that was about contested footy, defence, it was about contest and clearance. The game has moved on. He has tried to move on, but it hasn’t worked for him,” Hird noted.

The Demons are ranked No.1 for contested possession differential and hardball get differential, but are 15th for transition from defensive 50 to forward 50.

The manner in which they coughed up the greatest-ever lead at a final change, against St Kilda in round 20 told the tale of a confused, disorganised team – and club – in need of change.

By the numbers

The Demons have the seventh-oldest list (average age 25.9), with average career games of 115 (fifth most). They have nine players aged 30 or older – only Geelong (10) and Collingwood (12) have more.

Summary

Overall, competition sources say the Demons demographically are in a relatively healthy spot, but will need to make calls on a few of their veterans when it comes to shaping their premiership vision. They have young talent, but are a bit light on in the overall quality of their 23 to 29-year-olds.