As stubborn U.S. inflation continues to drive grocery prices higher in 2025, one surprising exception is emerging this month: the cost of preparing your Thanksgiving meal.
Consumers can expect to spend about 2% to 3% less this year on Turkey Day groceries, according to a recent Wells Fargo analysis of a typical Thanksgiving feast.
Shoppers are likely to pay less this year because the foods that make up a traditional Thanksgiving meal aren't the ones driving grocery inflation, the bank found. Grocery prices overall rose 2.7% in September from a year ago, according to the latest Consumer Price Index, led by increases in beef, bananas and coffee — none of which are Thanksgiving staples.
"At the heart of the uptick in the CPI's food-at-home increase is protein, specifically beef and eggs, which are not on the Thanksgiving menu," Wells Fargo's analysts said in the report. "Without those items, consumers will find relief in a traditional Thanksgiving meal."
That may surprise some shoppers, with more than two-thirds saying they're bracing for a pricier Thanksgiving grocery bill, according to new research from financial services company Empower.
Consumers who stick to store brands are expected to spend a total of about $80 on Thanksgiving dinner ingredients for a meal to feed 10 people, while buying brand-name products could push that amount to $95, the analysis found. That's based on serving a meal of turkey, stuffing, frozen vegetables, prepared mashed potatoes, gravy, fresh cranberries, dinner rolls, salad mix, and pumpkin pie with whipped cream.
That translates to between roughly $8 and $9.50 per person. Here's where shoppers will save money this year on typical Thanksgiving foods, according to Wells Fargo:
- Retail prices for turkeys are down 3.7% from a year ago
- Name-brand frozen vegetables are down 15% in price because of competition from private-label brands
- Private-brand dinner rolls have declined 22%, which Wells Fargo attributed to falling demand for bread products
- Stuffing, prepared gravy mix and fresh cranberries have dipped between 3% and 4% in price
- National brand pumpkin pies cost 3% less
A few items have increased in price, Wells Fargo noted. For instance, the cost of whipping cream has risen 3% from a year ago.
Walmart's $4 Thanksgiving dinner
Some major grocery chains are touting even more affordable Thanksgiving meals, such as Walmart's $4 per person holiday dinner package — lower even than the retailer's $7 deal in 2024.
The price drop isn't only down to lower ingredient prices. This year, Walmart's $4 deal includes 23 items, a slightly stingier offering than the 29 items included in last year's Thanksgiving meal bundle.
Some of the changes include:
- One can of Campbell's cream of mushroom soup in 2025, versus two cans in last year's package.
- No fresh onions or celery
- No Jiffy corn muffin mix
Other retailers are also getting in on the budget Thanksgiving train, including Aldi's $4 per person deal and Target's roughly $5 per person holiday dinner bundle.
Edited by Alain Sherter
Retailers roll out budget Thanksgiving dinners starting at $20
Retailers roll out budget Thanksgiving dinners starting at $20
(00:40)
