Could Trump’s Caribbean boat strikes be what finally splinters the MAGA movement?

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According to those who have seen it, the video is horrific to watch. Two sailors cling to the debris of a blown-up boat in the Caribbean, then they’re killed by a US military strike. This occurred after the first strike on their boat failed to kill everybody on board.

It has sparked outrage, and led to accusations – by Democrat and Republican lawmakers alike – that the US Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, has presided over a military mission that may have been marked by war crimes.

Speaking to host Samantha Selinger-Morris on The Morning Edition podcast, senior research scholar at the Centre for International Security and Conflict at Stanford University Andrew Bell explains why US President Donald Trump has ordered multiple boat strikes in the Caribbean, which have killed at least 80 people. And whether this could splinter the MAGA movement, which is delicate after the “Epstein files” fiasco.

Click the player below to listen to the full episode, or read on for an edited extract of the conversation.

Selinger-Morris: There’s been some notable Republicans who have really spoken out against this. I know that Senator Rand Paul, he accused Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth of either lying in his public response to news reports about the strike, and he has co-sponsored resolutions to block unauthorised military action in the Caribbean and Venezuela.

And we know that Republican senator Thom Tillis, he told CNN that whoever was responsible for ordering the second boat strike needs to be held accountable, saying you don’t have to have served in the military to understand that that was a violation of ethical, moral and legal code.

So are we seeing a splintering of the MAGA movement, do you think, or is that is it to too strong to say that, or are we witnessing something of a turning point?

Bell: Yeah, it’s a really good question. And I think we’ll see. I think we’ve been to a point before where it seemed as if President Trump was at his nadir, and maybe had lost the opportunity to be part of politics, in the wake of the January 6 events, only to see him come roaring back and regain the enthusiasm of the MAGA base and come to power.

Bell: So I think we are seeing a bit of a splintering… certainly there’s some daylight that we haven’t seen in the prior months.

But I’m hesitant to say that there’ll be any long-term consequences for the president himself that comes out of this. I think the strongest, perhaps constraint that, or greatest reaction we might see at some point, if this does develop into a true scandal legally and politically, is that Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth would be asked to step down.

I have a hard time really seeing that because Trump is very, very keen on loyalty and loyalty among his staff. And it’s important to remember that the defence secretary is there precisely because of his lack of experience, of his lack of authority and knowledge on these issues. The characteristics that may put him there are the ones that have led to this kind of event.

And it really goes to show why that position is so important. You know, perhaps the number two most powerful position in the world. And we’ll see where it goes from here. So it just depends on the nature of the Republicans in Congress and the American people. And we’ll hope that there will be some sort of constraint or some sort of, I think, recognition of the importance of this that might come out of this.

To hear more about the political consequences of these strikes, and Andrew Bell’s analysis on how it could impact the treatment of American military personnel by other countries, listen to the podcast episode in the player above or click here.

Hear the story behind the headlines on The Morning Edition podcast, every weekday from 5am on Apple, Spotify or your favourite podcast platform.