Could a Bazball Ashes become a multimillion-dollar headache for Seven?

3 months ago 17

Opinion

November 28, 2025 — 12.15am

In this week’s On Background, why England’s rapid style of cricket (and capitulation) is bad news for Cricket Australia’s broadcasters, Fevola joins Seven, Sky goes gaga for Pauline, and a happy News Corp family.

Hit for six

Seven’s execs are nervous and praying the pink ball doesn’t swing too much in Brisbane next week. A repeat of (or anything close to) the shortest Ashes test in 137 years could further blow a multimillion-dollar hole in the company’s already ailing revenue and further damage advertiser sentiments.

If this is the way cricket goes in 2026, Seven’s Cricket deal, which runs until 2031, could quickly become more of a millstone around its neck, adding to the pain of its AFL deal, also in place until 2031.

Like every sporting rights contract in Australia, cricket is already a loss-maker for Seven. It pays about $65 million a year for the free-to-air summer of cricket, which includes five tests and a few dozen Big Bash League games.

Australia romped to victory over England in the first Test within two days.

For the five tests, Seven could usually expect between $30 million and $40 million in advertising revenue and about $15 million more for the Big Bash League. This doesn’t match its outlay, but with big, consistent viewership figures, the opportunity to promote the rest of its news and entertainment programming usually makes it worthwhile.

According to senior execs with direct knowledge of Seven’s sales figures, the two-day test in Perth wasn’t a complete disaster, but it could spell trouble. Due to the time difference, much of the gameplay was in the sweet spot for viewers on the East Coast, and with advertisers paying by total eyeballs, not by time, the average audience of 1.17 million helped.

Still, there was an estimated loss of $1 million to $2 million in revenue, plus the need to provide “make goods” to advertisers – essentially free ad spots on future programming or coming Tests to make up for spots already paid for. For ads promoting Black Friday retail sales, though, there’s no chance of a future run, meaning Seven would essentially have to hand back cash.

Should the remaining Tests finish anywhere between two and three days, the situation could snowball, and Seven could be facing a 20 to 30 per cent revenue hit, or higher, on its summer of cricket revenue. This could mean a revenue loss exceeding $10 million or $15 million, sales executives say. Any chance of a flat pitch?

Break point

Ashes aside, this week could mark the moment the economics of sports broadcasting reached breaking point.

On Wednesday, this masthead reported Foxtel’s new owner DAZN could be considering a formal application to reduce its outlay on the AFL deal, worth about $420 million a year to 2031. In a statement, DAZN categorically denied that was the case.

But there’s the reality that the AFL rode a wave of perfect conditions to secure its $4.5 billion, seven-year deal, in turn skewing the expectations of all other codes. At that point, ad revenue was recovering from the pandemic and there were no signals it would fall off the cliff as it has in the years since, making similar contracts simply unaffordable.

Seven had already tried to blow up its cricket contract in 2022. And for AFL, Seven needs an average of 29 goals a game to sell enough ads to break even, senior sources with knowledge of the figures say. The figure was 24.5 in 2025, which makes it no surprise that new rules were introduced this month to promote more goals next year.

There will probably be more goals in 2026, thus more ad breaks.

But while Foxtel relies more on subscribers, with ad revenue the icing on the cake, its executives were still fuming that they had to pay as much as they did.

“No one likes being forced to their outer limits,” Gil McLachlan told this masthead for a recent profile of Siobhan McKenna, who brokered the deal with Foxtel boss Patrick Delany.

The prospect of selling Foxtel without the future AFL rights was a non-starter. Kayo, Foxtel’s most valuable asset, was still in its growth phase, so they had to get it – no matter the cost.

There’s a suggestion in some circles that DAZN simply doesn’t care for the rules, citing its approach to codes in France and Belgium (albeit in different situations). Cozying up with Donald Trump and FIFA president Gianni Infantino, two names you’re unlikely to find in the dictionary beside integrity, suggests there may be a kernel of truth to it. Foxtel is a trusted partner in Australia, however.

In the unlikely event that DAZN goes nuclear on the AFL, it could disrupt the entire market. Even just having a grumpy partner is bad news for the league. Usually, sporting contracts have a “change of control” provision, which allows either party to step back and reassess the deal if a broadcaster has new owners. Whether the AFL deal has this provision in play is unknown.

But the bigger loser here could be rugby league, which unlike the AFL, doesn’t have its future broadcast revenue secured beyond 2027. The competition increasingly looks like it has missed the peak of the market. Foxtel needs both codes to survive, but there are only so many potential subscribers.

If Peter V’Landys has set the AFL’s deal as the benchmark for NRL, there’s a snowball’s chance in hell DAZN will give him anything close to that. In 2022, V’Landys told the Herald: “If Foxtel coughs, all the codes catch a cold.” Well, we may see that play out.

Rainy, with a chance of …

Makeup artist and influencer Mia Fevola has officially landed a plush new gig at Seven Network, in another turn in the long-running ratings battle with Nine, On Background can reveal.

The daughter of former AFL player and Fox FM breakfast host Brendan Fevola, Mia has become somewhat of a social media star. Her arrival at Seven had been rumoured at its new Docklands digs at the south end of the city, but on Thursday her name popped up in the company’s internal systems as a “Presenter”, reporting directly to Melbourne news boss Chris Salter. Word is Fevola may be presenting the weather report on weekends, though Seven said she has joined on a casual basis, with her role yet to be determined.

Mia Fevola earlier this year at a Formula 1 function.

Fevola has form with Seven, having appeared on Dancing with the Stars earlier this year. At 25 and with no television experience, could this be the edge Seven needs in Melbourne next year, having been trounced by Nine in 2025?

Hysterical for Hanson

Sky News has officially gone gaga for Pauline Hanson, thanks not only to One Nation’s soaring polling results but also her second burqa stunt, in the Senate on Monday.

Mocked for his regular After Dark appearances in the election lead-up, Peter Dutton was putting up rookie numbers by comparison to the One Nation leader. She has appeared as a guest on Sky’s After Dark programming on six of the past nine nights, including each show, barring Credlin, who made up for it by hosting her chief of staff, James Ashby, on Monday.

The fawning could barely be contained as she was introduced by Paul Murray as a “rock star” last week, unabashedly telling her and viewers that his fingers were “crossed” the polling would hold up at the next election. Talk about impartial news coverage!

Pauline took a night off on Thursday, ceding the floor to Barnaby Joyce, who is tipped to run as a future Senate candidate for the party.

‘Photo Free’ zone breach

Last week we informed you of Sky’s “photo free” premises at News Corp HQ in Sydney’s Surry Hills. On Background is told that some News staffers were already given a slap on the wrist for trying to score a few cheeky snaps.

But On Background spies have kindly provided footage from inside the bunker, with the studios still under construction just days out from the official move.

Sky’s new studios, (almost) ready to go for next week’s launch.

In fact, it’s turning into one big happy family. This week, Australian boss Michael Miller informed the troops that they will have new cellmates, with the company’s content houses Medium Rare, Storyation and Visual Domain also moving into Holt Street next year.

Add to that, for the first time, the fact Sky and News Corp are having joint Christmas parties at their local bureaus this year. Thanks to the antics of a select few in recent years, the days of the boss’ black card getting rinsed at Sydney’s Marble Bar are long gone.