Cold Pies and a Giant headache: Who will make the finals in the race for the top eight?

3 months ago 47

The run home to the AFL finals in 2025 remains must-watch viewing, with positions one through to eight there for the taking with three home-and-away rounds remaining (four for Gold Coast).

The Crows, the league’s hottest team, have leapt to the top of the ladder and could well be considered flag favourites. Collingwood, having stumbled over the past month, are now not only fighting for a top-two finish but could let the double chance slip.

The Suns are firming for the double chance, while the Brisbane Lions, who handled the Magpies, and Geelong, who have a soft fixture, also have one hand on the double chance.

Nick Daicos and his Magpies have hit a road bump, with the Cats among the teams now challenging for a top-two berth.

Positions five through to eight are also fluid. Greater Western Sydney, once top-four contenders, are now in danger of falling out of the top eight, while the Western Bulldogs could finally leap into the top eight. Percentage will be crucial.

So, where will your team finish? We analyse the run home for each of the contenders, and deliver our final predicted ladder which, in a season of uncertainty, will undoubtedly spark debate.

Adelaide

What we say: The Crows are on some kind of run – they’ve won six straight, and nine of their past 10 – and there is no reason why their winning ways won’t continue. They may have been missing important defenders Jordon Butts (punctured lung) and Max Michalanney (hamstring), but they got the job done against the Hawks, and have an easy kill in West Coast this weekend. If they can knock over the Magpies a week later, top spot should be within keeping. Best case: First. Worst case: Fifth.

Collingwood

What we say: In what has largely been a humdrum race for the finals, the Magpies’ woes have piqued interest. They appeared a lock for a top-two finish, if not top spot, a month ago. At that point they were 10 premiership points clear at the top. But three defeats from their past four games have sparked concerns about the “Colliwobbles”. Smashed in clearances at key stages in a worrying loss to the Lions, and missing Jeremy Howe, the Magpies had their worst performance since opening round. They now have an intimidating fortnight ahead, and could slip to fifth. Best case: First. Worst case: Fourth.

Jeremy Cameron and Lachie Neale have keys roles to play for the Cats and Lions, respectively.

Brisbane Lions

What we say: Coach Chris Fagan said he expected his team to rebound after a heavy loss to Gold Coast, and they did just that at the MCG on Saturday night. They should beat Sydney on Saturday, and could slip into the top two, but their top-four fate will be decided over the final fortnight of the season with games against fellow premiership contenders. Best case: First. Worst case: Sixth.

Geelong

What we say: The Magpies’ woes have the Cats ready to pounce on a top-two finish. And their run home could hardly be any friendlier, with all three of their next opponents thinking about next season. They should make this a trifecta of victories, their top-two hopes to be then shaped by the fortunes of the Magpies, Lions and Crows. Secure in the knowledge of at least a top-four finish, they have the luxury of managing their best players, ensuring a healthy list for September. Best case: First. Worst case: Fifth.

Chris Scott with his star onballer Bailey Smith.

Fremantle

What we say: The Dockers had to rebound from four goals down at half-time against Carlton to prevail on Sunday, but that’s the type of response they would not have had this time last year. On a four-game tear, they, too, have the double chance within their grasp. We’ll back them in against the Power, but it’s the final fortnight of the season that will tell the tale. Best case: First. Worst case: Ninth.

Gold Coast

What we say: A top-four finish, possibly even third, is not out of the question for the Suns, who now appear a lock to make their September debut. We have them winning three, if not all, of their remaining four games. If it’s all four, 17 wins could be enough for the double chance. It will be great to see a fresh face in September action. Best case: Third. Worst case: Eighth.

Damien Hardwick has the Suns eying their maiden finals campaign.

Hawthorn

What we say: It didn’t feel right a fortnight ago that our ladder predictor had the Hawks missing September, but that’s now a distinct possibility, their hopes also hurt by a season-ending injury to Will Day. A strong start against the Crows was wasted, and now comes a must-win clash against the Magpies on Thursday night. Lose, and the round-24 trip to Brisbane – and percentage – may decide all. Best case: Fourth. Worst case: Ninth.

GWS

What we say: The Giants are suddenly a worry. That was a shocker against the Bulldogs, even if Toby Greene, Jack Buckley and Josh Kelly were absent. While it’s hard to have too much of a crack, for the Giants had won their previous six games, they could yet miss the top eight – on percentage – even if they win two of their final three games. An upset win over Gold Coast in round 23 would solve their problems. Best case: Fourth. Worst case: Ninth.

Western Bulldogs

What we say: The Dogs claimed just their second top-eight scalp of the season on Thursday, thumping the Giants in a pivotal clash. Their avenue to September now opens up, for the Demons and Eagles should be easy kills. Then comes a juicy final-round clash with the Dockers, which could determine – believe it or not – whether they even slip into the top four. The Dogs are all-in on attack and, in Aaron Naughton and Sam Darcy, have arguably the in-form, one-two key forward punch in the league. If they continue to fire, watch out. Best case: Third. Worst case: Ninth.

Predicted ladder

When we completed our first ladder prediction after round 19, we had Hawthorn missing the finals by a game. That was largely based on tipping the Magpies over the Hawks this Thursday, but we have now – albeit cautiously – switched that tip. In another change, we now have Fremantle edging Port Adelaide this weekend. The Suns’ recent good form, in particular their win over Brisbane, means they could now finish with eight more premiership points than expected – and the double chance. Here is the original prediction.