Carlton or Essendon: Which team would you rather coach?

It’s as predictable as the lunar cycle.

Essendon and Carlton are both on the hunt for a new senior coach.

The two “power” clubs, who only deserve the title because they tend to short-circuit more often than the opposition, meet each other in less than a fortnight, on King’s Birthday eve.

The winner will claim interim bragging rights, with Carlton caretaker coach Josh Fraser and Essendon coach Dean Solomon making it nine interim coaches between them at the Blues and the Bombers in the past 20 years.

But that celebration could be short-lived because finishing lower on the ladder serves each club’s long-term interests better.

Those draft picks they possess when this year ends will play some role in answering the question: which club has the more attractive list for their next coach?

The spine

The best judges say the way to assess each list is to examine the spine first.

At Carlton, the evidence is in with backs Jacob Weitering and Harry Dean at one end, and forwards Harry McKay and a Charlie Curnow-sized gap to fill at the other.

With early picks to be used to secure Cody Walker, they might be able to target a developing forward such as Ethan Herbert late in the first round or early in the second round of the draft depending on where the Walker bid falls.

The more experienced Brodie Kemp (contracted until 2027) and Mitch McGovern (out of contract at end of season) could provide some support as third talls and depth, while youngster Harry O’Farrell has promise as a third defender.

At Essendon, the talent is still to be explored with defender Zach Reid and the electrifying forward Nate Caddy starting their careers at either end.

Key defender Ben McKay has been disappointing, but a new coach could release the pressure he felt to perform.

The Bombers will have more options with their first pick live, making the Northern Knights’ Harry Van Hattum a realistic prospect, or if they wanted to start at the back end, Gippsland Power’s Clancy Snell.

A forward ruck would be an excellent addition alongside promising forward Archer May, while Peter Wright could provide support in the final year of his deal. Tom Edwards is handy, too.

Neither midfield jumps off the page, although Carlton’s Sam Walsh will be the best midfielder at either club heading into next season, giving the Blues a slight edge in that area.

Conclusion: The Bombers have the more exciting spine.

The senior players

The Blues have better ready-made players with Patrick Cripps, Walsh, the keys at either end and solid AFL players Will Hayward, Ben Ainsworth, Ollie Florent, Nic Newman and George Hewett. Hewett may have some trade value if the Blues considered him surplus to needs.

They also have a bunch of players out of contract at the right time. Adam Saad, Lewis Young, Lachlan Fogarty, Nick Haynes and Zac Williams are unsigned beyond this season. Haynes played last week but it would be a surprise if he played on. Of the five, Williams is the only one at this stage who seems any chance of being at the Blues next year.

Essendon’s ready-made players are inconsistent and too often injured, but they have more trade currency than Carlton’s senior players. Zach Merrett is the equal of Cripps on-field but Darcy Parish, Kyle Langford, Mason Redman, McKay, Jordan Ridley, Andy McGrath and Jade Gresham are between 27 and 29. Most, but not all, of that group are capable of being solid performers at other clubs. Their peak years might be behind them, but they could fill a role.

Obviously, the Bombers’ board thinks, despite little evidence, they can go to another level under a new coach.

If Merrett wants out, they should take the draft picks and attack the final draft before Tasmania arrives hard at the 2027 national draft. Ridley had some interest from the Suns, but that has cooled with Oscar Adams’ emergence. The Lions could have some appeal for both player and club. Again the Bombers might be better off moving forward without the injury riddled, albeit talented, best and fairest winner.

McGrath could stay skipper but assist Nic Martin and Sam Durham to lead a next generation of emerging talent at the Hangar.

Conclusion: Carlton has Cripps, Weitering and Walsh which gives them an edge over the Bombers (who have never really found the “Essendon edge”).

The emerging talent

Alongside Dean, Jagga Smith is earmarked as a future star while Jack Ison, Talor Byrne, Harry O’Farrell, Matt Carroll, Lachie Cowan and Ollie Hollands are bankable under 23s. Walker is also due to arrive with high expectations although he and Smith – who is effectively in his first season – will need time to develop.

The number of young players with serious talent is low at Carlton, so a new coach has a hard road ahead.

Essendon went to the draft more significantly at the end of 2023, taking Caddy at pick No.10 whereas the Blues preferred two picks in the 20s for their late first-round pick after making a preliminary final and thinking they were closer to being contenders than it turned out.

Essendon recruited the wrong players at that time (remember it was not easy to attract players), but they did not compromise their ability to go to the draft.

It means the Bombers have Elijah Tsatas, Caddy, Isaac Kako, Sullivan Robey, Jacob Farrow and Dyson Sharp from the top end of the draft, as well as Archie Roberts, Angus Clarke and May who are all under 22. Tsatas has not been given a chance to “show or go”, but he will become either a challenge or a trade chip for a new coach. Mid-season draft prospect Jaxon Artemis will be handy as a running defender.

It’s incredible, but the Bombers do not have one player aged 22 or 23 on their list – an indication of wasted years.

Injury may catch up with Matt Guelfi after another hamstring injury, while Archie Perkins and Nik Cox could be attractive to other clubs if the Bombers need more draft capital.

Koby Bewick, the son of dual premiership forward Darren, is due to arrive at the 2027 draft, so they will need draft capital to secure him.

Conclusion: Essendon’s young crop is superior to Carlton’s emerging talent at this stage.

Current draft position

Based on current ladder position Essendon have picks No.1, 19, 55 in the 2026 national draft. The Bombers have a selection in each round of the 2027 national draft but may need to find some selections to match early bids on Bewick.

Carlton hold picks No.4, 17, 24, 32, 47 and 58. If a bid came for Cody Walker at No.1 they would need to use No.4 and 17 to match the bid, giving them Walker and a couple of second rounders. They also have two first round selections in the 2027 national draft, which will be compromised because Tasmania enter the national draft.

There is also the small matter for Carlton of finding a list manager after sacking Nick Austin on the same day Michael Voss finished up as coach. Essendon’s Matt Rosa is up and running at the Bombers.

Conclusion: Right now, being on the bottom and without priority access the Bombers have flexibility heading into the national draft, but Carlton hold high picks into 2027.

Not locked in beyond 2028

Tasmania can recruit an uncontracted player from each club and offer a sign-on bonus through 2027 and 2028, making players who come out of contract in either of those years gettable.

Carlton: Cripps (2027), Ison (2027), O’Farrell (2027) Dean (2028).

Essendon: Merrett (2027), Martin (2027), Caddy (2028), Farrow (2028), Robey (2028), Sharp (2028).

Conclusion: Three list management sources who preferred to remain anonymous when discussing another club’s list said Essendon’s list had more upside than Carlton right now, but the Blues would be expected to perform better in the short term than the Bombers.

But remember, we are talking about Essendon and Carlton here. Tasmania, anyone?

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