Australia’s population has been getting younger. But it won’t last

3 months ago 23

Australia’s median age has fallen for the first time in 50 years thanks to a post-pandemic surge in youthful migrants.

After hitting a high of 38.49 years in 2022, the median age dropped to 38.32 years in 2023 and remained there in 2024, the latest Bureau of Statistics figures show.

That modest decline reversed an ageing trend in place since the early 1970s.

During COVID-19 border closures in 2020 and 2021, the nation’s median age rose more rapidly than normal due to the departure of temporary visa holders. A dip in the birth rate during that period also contributed to the increase.

But the end of pandemic border restrictions triggered an unprecedented catch-up in international arrivals, predominantly overseas students, working holidaymakers and other temporary visa holders. Net overseas migration peaked at a record 537,000 in 2022-23.

The influx of youthful migrants means Australia has been getting younger – at least temporarily.

Australia’s median age is a key demographic indicator which shows the midpoint of the population’s age distribution meaning half of the people are younger than that age, and half are older.

Nick Parr, honorary professor of demography at Macquarie University, said the recent decline was unusual considering the nation’s decades-long ageing trend.

“The major reason for the decrease in the median age was very much higher than usual level of net immigration,” he said.

“New immigrants are mostly young adults, below the median age, so their arrival has the effect of slowing the ageing of the population. We had a slight rejuvenation of our population because of that after 2022.”

But Australia’s more youthful phase won’t last long.

“Over time, we’ll see a reversion to the ageing trend,” said Parr.

“Increasing life expectancies and lower birth rates are contributing to a change in the generational balance of the population and should contribute to future population ageing.”

The oldest members of the Baby Boom generation (born between 1946 and 1964) will enter their 80s next year.

“That means the 80-years-and-over age group will be one of the fastest, if not the fastest growing age group in the population,” said Parr.

Following World War II, there was a sustained fall in Australia’s median age driven by a spike in the birth rate. Between 1947 and 1971, it fell by 3.3 years.

But as the effects of the post-war baby boom faded, the median age began to climb amid rising life spans and a falling birth rate. About two years have been added to the median age since the turn of this century. It is forecast reach 40 years by 2035 and almost 44 by the mid-2060s.

The settlement patterns of overseas migrants has contributed to diverging age profiles across regions.

The median age in Melbourne and Sydney, which attract a large share of overseas migrants, is nearly two years lower than the national figure.

Tasmania is the oldest state with a median age of 42.6, more than four years higher than in Victoria and NSW.