At last, a massive win for the Democrats – on paper, and with several asterisks

2 hours ago 3

The best news from this election night in America is that the brownstone homes in the West Village are about to become a hell of a lot cheaper. Why? Because so many wealthy New Yorkers and corporates pledged to flee the city if Zohran Mamdani became mayor. And now that he has, surely they will – right?

Don’t hold your breath. Gloomy, self-serving predictions like this have come and gone over the past 400 years, and while it’s true that the city’s success tends to be cyclical, New York is still New York. And it always will be.

Zohran Mamdani claims victory in the New York City mayoral election.

Still, Mamdani’s election is a genuine political moment. He’s a young Muslim immigrant, a democratic socialist, and he’s taking the reins of a city synonymous worldwide with capitalism and greed.

And yet, anyone who has spent any time in New York knows that’s only a part of the story. The city is, and long has been, a progressive stronghold – full of aspiring creatives, people fleeing conservative small-town America and immigrants chasing the American dream.

So it’s hardly a shock to see Mamdani – on the Democratic ticket – score a decisive victory, especially when the alternatives were a desperate, recycled former governor in Andrew Cuomo, who resigned amid sexual misconduct claims (which he denies), and a quirky but unserious Republican.

Across the board, Democrats had a good night. They won the only two governors’ races, in Virginia and New Jersey – the first gubernatorial elections since US President Donald Trump returned to office – and an advantageous redistricting measure in California.

Trump, apparently watching from the White House, posted occasionally throughout the evening on his Truth Social platform.

“‘TRUMP WASN’T ON THE BALLOT, AND SHUTDOWN, WERE THE TWO REASONS THAT REPUBLICANS LOST ELECTIONS TONIGHT’, according to Pollsters,” he wrote. He did not identify the pollsters in question.

Also, really? The Dems had their own reasoning – Hakeem Jeffries, the Democratic leader in the House of Reps, said the results reflected the Republicans’ failure to manage the cost of living – but surely the main reason they did well is that the states involved in the biggest races were New York, New Jersey, Virginia and California. None of them voted for Trump in 2024. And Virginia and New Jersey both have track records of electing governors from the party that is not in the White House.

To be fair, if you’re a Democrat, you’re looking at the decisive margins and seeing this as a springboard for a massive push to retake the House of Representatives at next year’s midterms, rendering Trump a lame duck.

Democrat Abigail Spanberger arrives at an election night party in Virginia.

However, there are mixed lessons from these victories – ones that only amplify the identity crisis consuming Democrats in the Trump era. Do you take your cues from moderates – Abigail Spanberger in Virginia, Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey – or from the left-wing populism of Mamdani, who is more like fellow democratic socialist Bernie Sanders than Democratic governors such as Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer or Josh Shapiro.

Speaking of, Democratic strategist and former Barack Obama adviser David Axelrod saw one big winner of the night: Newsom. “He took a gamble on the voters of his state, and pushed back on Trump’s trespasses in a real, meaningful and tangible way. Dems eager for strong leaders in this moment, will remember,” Axelrod said on X.

Democrat Mikie Sherrill celebrates her win in New Jersey.

For the Democrats, the night’s main takeaway will be energy more than strategy. They will, as Newsom said, see themselves “in the ascendancy”, not on the back foot, for the first time in a while. And they will think Americans are not as enamoured by Trump’s bread and circuses as he would have people believe.

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