As expected, Pat Cummins won’t play in the Ashes opener. What happens next?

3 hours ago 4

As Cricket Australia confirmed on Monday that Pat Cummins would miss the Ashes opener in Perth, the Test captain was in the middle of another running session at Cricket NSW headquarters at Sydney Olympic Park.

About three days a week, Cummins drives a grey Jaguar I-Pace from Sydney’s eastern suburbs to NSW’s training field and takes part in running sessions near the outdoor nets with CNSW’s head of physical performance Dean McNamara.

“He’s been very good, actually,” Australian spinner Nathan Lyon told the ABC on Saturday. “For him to leave the eastern suburbs and get out to Silverwater, I’ve been amazed.”

Cummins has been asked about his back hundreds of times - by friends, family, media, and fans - since returning from the West Indies.

Initially, only a handful of people knew he was struggling on the Caribbean tour, but interest in his injury exploded when news broke on September 1 that scans had revealed “a level of lumbar bone stress”.

For weeks, Cummins and CA maintained a glimmer of hope that he could feature in all 25 potential days of the Ashes series.

Pat Cummins trains at Cricket NSW headquarters earlier this month.

Now, 25 days out from ball one at Perth’s Optus Stadium, that best-case scenario has been trimmed from 25 to 20 days.

The truth is, Cummins doesn’t know when he’ll play next. There is no conspiracy or obfuscation. The injury remains a day-to-day proposition, and CA is treating it as such. Suggestions that officials are keeping quiet to sell more tickets are wide of the mark.

David Warner has his doubts.

“Having been in the inner sanctum, I think they’re probably hiding some secrets,” Warner said at a Kayo Sports event earlier this month. “Cummins doesn’t need a gallop. He just can come out and bowl. He won’t want to go out there underdone.”

Test captain Pat Cummins and Australia coach Andrew McDonald.

After three hours of speculation that Cummins might be better off shelving the Ashes and preparing for the Big Bash, head coach Andrew McDonald offered the first ray of optimism in weeks when speaking in Canberra on Monday.

He said medical staff were “really optimistic and hopeful” that Cummins could be fit for the second Test in Brisbane, starting on December 4, and that he would bowl this week.

“That’s a huge step,” McDonald said. “We’re on the journey to that second Test match.”

Cummins has said previously he’d want at least a month of bowling before returning to Test cricket. If he were to bowl for the first time on Friday, hypothetically, that would give him just under five weeks before the Gabba Test.

Net bowling, however, is vastly different from sending down 20 overs on a hot day when wickets are difficult to come by.

There is a Sheffield Shield match between NSW and Tasmania from November 22-25 in Sydney, but it’s unlikely Cummins will target that game. Not only is that too soon, plans are in place for him to be embedded with the national team during the first Test, which runs from November 21-25.

The Blues then face Queensland at the SCG from December 5-8, which overlaps with the second Test.

There’s also an Australia A match against the England Lions at Allan Border Field from December 5 - just down the road from the Gabba - where a few young English batsmen could be in for a rude shock if the Australian skipper is trying to prove his fitness for the third Test in Adelaide, starting December 17.

Just because Cummins will bowl this week doesn’t mean it’s a smooth path from here. CA won’t take risks with a back injury - least of all their captain’s - with a longer-term prize in sight: winning an away Ashes series in 2027.

Based on CA’s latest news, which came 25 days from the opening Test, November 9 looms as the next checkpoint for Cummins’ involvement in Test two.

There will be a circus following him for the next month, but Monday’s news at least dispels the notion he’s out for the entire series.

Earlier this month, Cummins told this masthead he’d really been enjoying the downtime.

“I can’t probably say it, but it’s been nice not bowling for a while,” Cummins told this masthead. “I’m itching to get back in the nets.”

The understatement of the day came in McDonald’s press conference when he said Scott Boland would be a “potential” replacement.

With 49 wickets from nine home Tests at an average of 12.63, Australia has rarely had a more ready-made replacement.

“It’s not a bad position to be in,” McDonald said.

Unless Boland, Hazlewood, or Starc go down injured. Then things would get very interesting.

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