There are three upcoming March dates in which mortgage rates may decline again.
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Timing the mortgage interest rate climate, as even buyers and owners with limited experience know, can often feel like an impossible task. And in the interest rate landscape of recent years, there wasn't even much to time. Mortgage interest rates were high – at one point at their highest level since 2000 – and there were limited ways in which borrowers could get them lower. But that's started to change over the past 18 months, approximately, thanks in large part to a concentrated effort from the Federal Reserve to lower its benchmark interest rate. Mortgage interest rates, specifically, responded positively to these adjustments.
Down by more than a full percentage point from where they sat in early 2025, it's not uncommon for buyers and owners hoping to refinance to be offered a rate comfortably in the 5% range right now. And while those are still higher than the near record lows offered in 2020 and 2021, they could once again be low enough to support taking action. They can potentially decline a bit lower this March, too, if certain market conditions break in favor of borrowers.
But with mortgage interest rates changing daily, it helps to know when these declines could actually take place. Below, we'll detail three dates to keep in mind.
Start by seeing how low your current mortgage rate offers are here.
3 times mortgage interest rates could fall this March
While borrowers are always encouraged to monitor the mortgage rate climate each day, they may want to pay particular attention to the following dates (and the dates that follow each) for a timely opportunity to lock in a below-average purchase or refinance rate:
March 6, 2026
The next unemployment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to be released this day, and it could provide significant insight into the health of the economy after the February report showed robust job growth and a decline in the unemployment rate. Was that just an anomaly or a sign of future positive movement? We will find out on this date.
The Federal Reserve and mortgage lenders will also be watching closely, as a rise in unemployment may encourage the Fed to continue cutting rates, and lenders may get ahead of that by lowering their offers. A drop in unemployment or a steady rate, meanwhile, may have the opposite effect. Be prepared for either, then, as this could be a good time to lock in a rate.
Compare your current mortgage options here to start establishing a baseline.
March 11, 2026
Inflation has remained sticky in recent years, even if it remains considerably below the 9% it sat at in June 2022, approximately. But it did decline in the most recent report. And if the next inflation reading released on this date shows another drop, it could be the encouragement the Fed needs to resume its interest rate cut campaign, which has been on hold since December.
So economists and mortgage lenders, in particular, will be paying close attention to what the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases on the morning of March 11. Homebuyers and owners hoping to refinance should, too, as this data has the potential to impact mortgage rates, maybe even more than it would seem on paper.
March 18, 2026
Much has changed since the Federal Reserve met in January. Reports showing inflation and unemployment declining have subsequently been released, and a nominee for the Federal Reserve chairman role has since been announced. And by the time the central bank finally meets again (there was no February meeting), the newer, aforementioned unemployment and inflation reports will have been released. So there will be plenty of information for the bank to work with to determine its interest rate policy.
However, even if the bank doesn't officially issue a rate cut on March 18 (odds of the bank doing so currently look low), comments made after the meeting about the future of rate cuts could easily impact the market. And that could temporarily open the door for mortgage borrowers as lenders are influenced by both what the Fed does and what it says it will and won't do. Take heed, then, on this date, and the dates that follow, as mortgage interest rates are likely to respond to whatever news comes out of the two-day meeting.
The bottom line
This March could be an eventful time for the mortgage rate climate … or it may not be, depending on how these dates play out and how the events on each interact with one another. But if you're a borrower, there's plenty to pay attention to and, potentially, benefit from. So consider your options closely and look to establish a baseline of rates right now that you can easily compare against at this same point next month. It took a long time for mortgage rates to become affordable again, so now that they're trending that way again, you'll want to position yourself as best as possible to take advantage.
Edited by Angelica Leicht
