$200 a barrel: The oil contracts that show how fuel crisis could worsen

Asian refineries that provide the bulk of Australia’s petrol and diesel are paying up to $US140 a barrel for readily available crude oil cargoes – well above prices of around $US100 for months-ahead deliveries – in a sign of what experts warn is a worsening supply crunch gripping the market.

As the final tankers to clear the Strait of Hormuz before the start of the US-Israel war on Iran begin arriving at their destinations this week, soaring premiums for oil that is ready to ship are threatening to push up the cost of fuel and deepening worries that the price shock has longer to run.

The sense of desperation is underscored by an “unprecedented” mismatch between contracts for future oil deliveries and cargoes available in the near term, energy analysts said. So-called “futures” contracts – reflecting what investors think a barrel of oil will cost months from now – have been hovering around $US100 for Brent oil, the global crude benchmark. Meanwhile, the “spot price”, which reflects the cost of buying physical oil scheduled for shipment in the next one to 30 days, has touched recent highs of above $US140 ($197) a barrel.

Such a large divergence was unusual, said Martijn Rats, an analyst at Morgan Stanley. The spread between the two markers was usually no more than $US3 a barrel, and was “not something most market participants need to worry much about”, he said.

“At the moment, the market is scrambling for prompt, refinery-usable barrels, and stress is appearing first in the part of the benchmark that is closest to the immediate physical problem,” he said.

Surging premiums for near-term crude supplies raise concerns for Australia, which relies on Asian imports for 80 per cent of its fuel needs. Australia’s two remaining domestic oil refineries – Viva Energy’s Geelong refinery and Ampol’s Lytton plant in Brisbane – also need to continue scouring the globe for extra oil to refine into petrol, diesel and jet fuel and could face higher costs.

After US-Iran peace talks failed to reach a deal and shattered short-lived hopes that oil flows may begin returning to normal, Commonwealth Bank analyst Vivek Dhar said the surge in spot prices underlined the “significant stress” in oil markets due to the ongoing disruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital thoroughfare that usually carries one-fifth of world oil tankers.

He said Brent futures were at risk of rising towards physical prices in coming weeks, while the United States’ plan to blockade Iranian ports could make matters worse by choking off Iran’s oil exports, which accounted for about 1.6 per cent of global oil supply.

Fuel prices in Australia rise and fall in line with crude oil markets, typically with a lag of seven to 10 days. At service stations across the country, regular unleaded was selling for an average of $2.24 a litre last week, according to the Australian Institute of Petroleum. That is down nearly 30¢ a litre from the start of this month following the government’s halving of the fuel excise, but remains 30 per cent higher than before the war began on February 28.

While Australian fuel companies warn “upward pressure” on international prices remains a concern, the Singapore unleaded benchmark, Mogas 95, has been hovering in a narrow band between $120 and $140 a barrel for some time. That price stabilisation may partly be a sign that higher prices are forcing some customers to consume less fuel across the region, said Malcolm Roberts, chief executive of the Australian Institute of Petroleum, which represents Ampol, BP, Mobil and Viva Energy.

Last week, the Albanese government announced a deal with Australian fuel importers to participate in an underwriting scheme designed to encourage them to buy all the fuel they could on global spot markets. Under the deal, taxpayers would guarantee their losses if they bought expensive cargoes and then faced price falls. The government said it would seek deals that delivered value for money to taxpayers, but stressed that its top priority was ensuring security of supply, rather than the lowest prices.

“This arrangement will enable the companies to make a purchase that would have been non-commercial and to go out and buy that fuel for Australians,” Energy Minister Chris Bowen said.

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